When looking at the partisan breakdown of early voters in 2012 compared to 2016, Democratic-affiliated voters are outpacing their early 2012 performance in several battleground states.
It all comes down to how many of these "democratic-affiliated voters" are voting for Hillary, and / or a large number of them voting for Trump.
BTW, what do they mean by "democratic-affiliated voter"? How would they know? Is there a red versus blue ballot? Are people stating they're democrats or republicans as part of the process, or is the media just guessing?
I think they are just guessing and hoping it is true. A FR mentioned this to me.....nobody is standing in line to vote for Hillary.......valid point.
Also from what I have read around these interwebs....those standing in line to vote early haven’t been hillary voters.
Remember in 08 how the media had their people standing next to all the early voting lines........they had helicopters over the lines too.
Media would be posting those pics.
they were long....all obama son types. where is that now?
Pollsters don't have a freakin' clue what they're talking about this time around. All they can agree on is at this point there aren't any remaining undecided voters. It's all about turnout.
So they're trying to measure likely voters. They're using 2012's turnout as their baseline metric but they know that this is probably wrong because it fails to count the possibility that there's millions of voters who stayed home in 2012 who will likely be out there voting for Trump. Prior to now, these people didn't vote so they didn't get reflected in polling data.
They don't know what the hell's going on. That's why the polling is so off the wall. They might as well be using a Magic-8 Ball.