Posted on 10/27/2016 8:27:31 AM PDT by simpson96
Hillary Clinton’s confidence could cost her the US presidency, according to a leading American political scientist who claims that Donald Trump is on course to win the US election in 12 days.
The warning comes amid concerns from the Clinton campaign team that voter turnout will yet prove critical, despite many polls suggesting that the Democratic candidate is ahead of her Republican rival.
The latest results from the poll considered to have most accurately predicted the results of the last three elections, by IBD/TIPP, suggest that Ms Clinton may have a lead of just 0.6 per cent over Mr Trump, with 41.8 per cent backing the former US Secretary of State compared with 41.2 per cent for Mr Trump.
In Florida, a key state for signalling the winning candidate in previous elections, Mr Trump may be ahead of Clinton, with 45 per cent compared with 43 per cent for his opponent, according to a Bloomberg Politics poll released yesterday.
Professor Helmut Norpoth, from the Department of Political Science at Stony Brook University in New York, has correctly predicted the past five US presidents.
Using a statistical model based on previous election results, he is predicting that Mr Trump will triumph next month. Professor Norpoth told i: “My forecast says that he’s going to win 52.5 per cent of the two-party vote, that would give Hillary 47.5 per cent. I attach something like 87 per cent certainty that he’s going to win.”
(Excerpt) Read more at inews.co.uk ...
Even Nate Silver is saying there’s a “Russian roulette” chance that Trump will win.
LOL!
I wonder how he accounts for fraud? His model seems good. He must account for it somehow.
Seems like we have posting about the good Professor Helmut Norpoth every day.
why is this guy posting a Trump win as a warning? He’s a professor not a political consultant after all.
I know, right? Numerous - NUMEROUS - reports of election “irregularities” are surfacing in my own backyard, the D/FW metroplex. What you hear about is likely just the tip of the iceberg.
He apparently does not account for fraud. He predicted Kennedy would lose the election. Kennedy did lose - but Chicago changed the votes.
Ignore all media
Get Out The Vote
Fraud, in all forms, makes up the wild card in this election.
That, and the willful ignorance of the media, have been playing an inordinately large role in this election season.
More people are voting AGAINST the possibility of Herself taking the White House, than are voting FOR Herself as the “better” alternative. There is a similar case to be made for The Donald, in that more are voting AGAINST his rival, than are voting for him.
Comes down to who gets hated the most. The Donald does have a lot more enthusiasm among those voting FOR him, than those who are voting for Herself.
Note to Herself (like the advice would be accepted): Don’t p*ss off those who would be predisposed to vote against you to the point where they would crawl over broken glass to get to the polls.
But it may be already too late for that.
I live in a small town near Winston Salem, NC. Today was our first day for early voting. Opened at 11 AM. I went to vote about 11:40. the big parking lot was filled, parked on the street for as far as I could see. 2 very long lines outside and lots of people walking toward the Library where we vote.
AWESOME and not a Hillary sign to be seen!!!
Trump will win in the biggest landslide in modern American history!
Has he factored in the fraud in past elections, and in this one?
Candidate and party signs are forbidden within 100 feet of polling places here in Jersey. We even had complaints that cars with political bumper stickers were in the parking lot1
Nearly all of the polls are way off, because they’re based upon 2012 turnout models. Hillary simply is not drawing the same levels of voter enthusiasm seen for Obama in the last two elections, hence, she will not draw the same numbers of voters to the polls.
Let us also not forget how hard it is for either party to hold the White House for three consecutive terms. It’s only been done once in the last 65 years, and that was after eight years of Ronald Reagan’s prosperous stewardship.
Reagan had coattails because the country improved on his watch. Obama does not, because the country has worsened on his watch.
Voters want change, and Hillary represents more of the same failure and pain we’ve endured over the last eight years.
She will not win with these dynamics (and others) in play, no matter what the goofball polls show.
“...more are voting AGAINST his rival, than are voting for him.”
No doubt, some former Cruz supporters feel that way, but I can’t remember the last time so many so many Republican voters expressed their relief at finally having a candidate they can vote FOR.
We have several areas for signs, lots of them, not one Hillary to date.
Our local Gannett newsrag's editorial page had a short comment about the lack of Hillary signs, speculating that fear of damage by Trump supporters was the reason. Projection, much?
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