Iowa absentee/early voting (2012 vs 2016)

Iowa SOS ^ | 10/26/16 | me

[Ravi]

Trending well in Iowa compared to 2012...

[Ravi]

Dems need to run up early voting/absentee totals because GOP does historically well on election day. GOP goal is to keep it close in early voting and overwhelm on election day. This is the Iowa pattern.

Absentee Ballot REQUESTS by Party at equivalent points in time for 2012 and 2016 elections (13 days from election):

10/24/12: DEM 250,398; GOP 175,111; Other 139,813

10/26/16: DEM 219,284; GOP 174,991; Other 111,484

DEM and Other down considerably this year. GOP even with 2012. Looking good overall. Will post RETURNS starting Monday. I expect 90% of ballot REQUESTS to be returned for all parties but we will confirm that.

My guess with unaffiliated requests down is dem leaning college students/voters not requesting ballots as heavily as 4 years ago. This is my hunch.

[Ravi]

Ping. Again for the uninitiated, this only tells us WHO is voting not HOW someone is voting. We will find that out on November 8th.

[dp0622]

That’s more than 10 percent drop for dems. That’s HUGH And SERIES!!

[Ravi]

Yep. This pattern has held for the last month or so. We will in the next 10 days if anything changes.

[dp0622]

gonna be a LONG 10 days.

Less than two weeks till history is made!!

[Trumpisourlastchance]

Good to see, thanks for assembling this info for us.

[right-wingin_It]

I think we see excellent early voting trends now in IA, NC, FL. Focus should be to turn up the hear in AZ, PA & NH, followed by MI & WI. Then CO, and lastly NV

NV - I don't like the early voting trend there

[Bogie]

I can't blame them for no enthusiasm.

Hell, the whole thing was rigged.

[silverleaf]

Lots of students and hipsters feelin’ the “Bern”

[TexasCruzin]

You forgot Ohio.

[right-wingin_It]

NV - I don't like the early voting trend there

CORRECTION!. I just looked at the latest Early Vote ballot statistics from NV secretary of state, and it shows by the end of the week Republicans will have performed better than in 2012 by a few percentage points. The Early Vote on the first weekday was very high for Clark county (political junkies, but has tapered down now in the recent weekdays (I kind of expected it to).

I think Trump will at least do better than Romney in NV now..and who knows maybe win.

[right-wingin_It]

Clark and Washoe get an extra boost of In person Early votes every Sunday because they are open and the other counties closed, but it dilutes down during the weekdays.

[LS]

AZ not in play.

[sargon]

AZ not in play.

Any thoughts on NH, VT, NM, & CO?

The Revolution is ON!

Vote Trump!

[LS]

NH CO in play.

[LS]

NH CO in play.

[Revolutionary]

New Hampshire has a lot of conservatives avoiding the Mass. taxes. That plus the heroin problem will likely put Trump over the top.
Vermont could be a pick up or a loss for Hillary. I think there will be enough Sanders write in votes to make it happen. They are really pissed at Hillary.
New Mexico is an odd duck. It used to be reliably red, but in Presidential elections has been trending blue.
Colorado has been a challenge of late, but I think it goes Trump this time due to a big independent vote for Trump. Also I think this state is probably at the low end of enthusiasm for Hillary. Thus a lot of democrat no=shows.