Posted on 10/24/2016 6:05:56 AM PDT by justlurking
Results are up early today.
The chart has added milestones for the conventions and the debate, so you can see how the results changed afterwards.
That’s a really narrow lead.
I’ll take a lead any-day :) We can use all the good news we find.
It's not a "lead". It's a statistical dead heat.
However, the party ID split has been D+6 for the past week. PPD doesn't adjust for party ID -- they simply report how the poll respondents identified.
Party ID split was D+7 in the 2008 election, when voting for Obama was the latest cool thing to do. In 2008, it was D+6.
In 2012 (mid-term), it was D+3. It's worth noting that Reagan's landslide in 1984 was also D+3.
With independents breaking 40/26 for Trump in this poll, a more heavily Republican sample would give Trump a decisive edge.
But, it really comes down to turnout in the election. In this poll, Trump has a 84/72 edge in "enthusiasm". I think a lot of Hillary voters are going to stay home.
You said it.
The thing that has kept me sane this campaign is turning off the network news and the cable shows. As for the polls, if we know it’s associated with a network or a daily newspaper it will be heavily planted towards Hillary. Just have faith folks. More people dislike the woman than we realize.
According to my #s Trump must get 85% of Rs/Cankles >85% of Ds = Trump wins.
I haven't watched either for years.
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