Posted on 10/23/2016 7:46:34 AM PDT by 11th_VA
Early in her speech Friday at Cuyahoga Community College’s metro campus, Hillary Clinton said, “ In the first four days of in-person, early voting here in Ohio, more people showed up to vote than they did at the same time in 2012 in our last election.
(snip)
First, the five counties cited by Wyant are simply the five biggest in Ohio, so their lead in mail-in ballot requests is a bit of a no-duh. And what’s not said is that early vote requests overall so far are lagging the pace from four years ago.
In fact, in Ohio counties carried by President Barack Obama, the mail-in requests are down by roughly 12 percent. But in counties carried by Mitt Romney, they’re only about 7 percent lower.
And while it’s certainly the case that early voters, especially those who cast ballots in person, generally favor Democrats, this year is a little more complicated.
For example, in Cuyahoga County, Democrats are only at 53 percent of their early vote total from the 2012 election, when the process started a week earlier. But Republicans already are at 95 percent, with two weeks to go. (Independents are at 76 percent.)
Comments, LS?
There are record lines at the courthouse in Hamilton County IN.
Strong Republican presence there.
Went 61% for McCain in 2008 and 66% for Romney in 2012
how do they know that early in person voting favors Dems? Is that specific to OH or certain counties in OH?
In person early voting is 10 or 20% the enthusiastic for a candidate. It is 80 or 90% an effective ground game.
Historically, Dems have a better ground game than Republicans do in most areas.
Historically, Republicans win Purple areas when they do two thngs:
1) run on issues and avoid ad hominem in the gutter.
2) Have the ground game that other Republicans don’t.
For example, in 2013 went door-to-door for Tea Party candidates in an area that went heavily for Obama and most all Dems in 2010, 2012.
I could get 10 or 20 early votes on a week day, 50+ early votes on a Saturday. That ground game made the difference for those Tea Party candidagtes winning, and winning big.
Historically Democrats win
1) In the gutter, ad hominem
2) A well oiled ground game
Sent this info to Trump two days ago.
More important than this: my insider in Montgomery Co. has done a HOUSEHOLD by HOUSEHOLD analysis of who the “indies” are. In 2012, we had a very large number of early/absentees coming from “Us” (unaffiliated) or “Is” (independents). But this was a freak of OH law that said if you don’t vote in the primary you are reclassified U for the general. Well, in 2012, because Obama was unopposed, a couple hundred thousand “Ds” became “Us.” My source looked this time at the actual voting history of a home, and reclassified the “Us” as D, R, or genuine Us. His result?
In 2012 Us went for Obama 2:1. This time, the D/R breakdown is actually 50/50. There is a chance Rs will actually win Montgomery Co overcoming a 12,000 D advantage in 2012. In fact, so far in early voting, Rs are up in “official” designations by 5,000 early votes, while the “normalized” number reflecting who they Us really are is an R advantage of 1600! That is very, very good news. Ds led at this point in 2012 by 1100 (a flip of 2700, or about 25% of the number needed to take the county so far) and more important, Ds are just way down (about 2,000 in “normalized” numbers).
Too bad we can’t move them a few hundred miles north or east :)
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.