Comments, LS?
Sent this info to Trump two days ago.
More important than this: my insider in Montgomery Co. has done a HOUSEHOLD by HOUSEHOLD analysis of who the “indies” are. In 2012, we had a very large number of early/absentees coming from “Us” (unaffiliated) or “Is” (independents). But this was a freak of OH law that said if you don’t vote in the primary you are reclassified U for the general. Well, in 2012, because Obama was unopposed, a couple hundred thousand “Ds” became “Us.” My source looked this time at the actual voting history of a home, and reclassified the “Us” as D, R, or genuine Us. His result?
In 2012 Us went for Obama 2:1. This time, the D/R breakdown is actually 50/50. There is a chance Rs will actually win Montgomery Co overcoming a 12,000 D advantage in 2012. In fact, so far in early voting, Rs are up in “official” designations by 5,000 early votes, while the “normalized” number reflecting who they Us really are is an R advantage of 1600! That is very, very good news. Ds led at this point in 2012 by 1100 (a flip of 2700, or about 25% of the number needed to take the county so far) and more important, Ds are just way down (about 2,000 in “normalized” numbers).