Posted on 10/21/2016 7:17:03 AM PDT by jmaroneps37
Wednesday we were stunned to hear a Hillary Clinton campaign spokesperson casually say, “in the next three weeks we expect the polls to tighten significantly.”
This begs the question: "Why would a Clinton spokesperson say the polls would “tighten” let alone say “the polls [would] tighten significantly?”
Why would this be?
Even Natie Silver knows the polls we see are fake and built on fake turnout models ; that’s why.
Because Donald Trump has not been stopped by the fake false accusations against him by women seeking their 15 minute of fame, they have to try something else. That something else is risky, but desperate times make for desperate people.
The obvious ploy the Media- Democrat cabal has to be thinking about is to have polls show Trump closing and closing and taking a lead so they can hit him with a barrage of lies and re-fake the polls to show he is now finally collapsing. Sure this is crazy but the thought of losing has made the left crazy.
The opening move has already been made by the crooks at NBC who are so flummoxed over Trump that they have released state polls showing Trump wining several important states which would be impossible if their national poll so aptly named “The Monkey poll” was correct.
The excellent work from Sundance at theconservativetreehouse.com puts this situation in a light that lets us see what is really going on with the fraudulent manipulation of polling data.
He writes, “Fortunately, we are at the stage in the presidential race where it is actually possible to gauge what’s going on by looking at ballots, early voting, absentee ballot distribution modeling, and comparisons to prior elections. Even if the media doesn’t want to take that approach, we can do it ourselves.”
Sundance credits, “Reader/Contributor “FLEPOREBLOG” [who] has assembled some data to highlight reality. Empirical data rebukes the gaslighting and help people(s) break the abusive cycle of battered voter syndrome:
As to North Carolina FLEPOREBLOG, said, “Folks ask me where is [the] evidence of the Monster Vote. As of 10-15-16 the Party Affiliation in NC are as follows:
Republicans – 30.2%
Democrats – 39.7%
Libertarians – 0.5%
UNA (Independents) – 29.7%
Male Registered Voters: 3,047,319 (44.8%)
Female Registered Voters: 3,613,040 (53.2%)
Didn’t Provide Gender Data: 135,347 (2.0%)
Total Registered Voters: 6,795,706
Data source http://ncsbe2.azurewebsites.net/absentee-data
Latest NC Early Mail Voting as of 10/18
15,610 (+922 from 10/17) more registered Republicans have requested an Early Mail In Ballot as of 10/17 (9.3% Lead up from 9.1% on 10/17 {+0.2%})
Vote-by-Mail Requested (Not Yet Returned)
REP: 67,954 (+2,679 from 10/17)
DEM: 52,344 (+1,757 from 10/17)
LIB: 597 (+29 from 10/17)
UNA: 47,276 (+1,946 from 10/17)
Total Requested: 168,171 (+6,411 from 10/17)
#Trump (Rep): 40.4% (same from 10/17)
#HRC(Dem): 31.1% (-0.2% from 10/17)
Lib: 0.4% (same from 10/17)
UNA: 28.1% (+0.1% from 10/17)
1,742 (+541 from 10/17) more registered Republicans have returned an Early Mail In Ballot as of 10/17 (3.8% Lead up from 2.9% on 10/17 {+0.9%})
Voted-by-Mail Returned & Accepted
Rep: 18,120 (+2,177 from 10/17)
DEM: 16,378 (+1,636 from 10/17)
Lib: 123 (+12 from 10/17)
UNA: 11,618 (+1,261 from 10/17)
Total Returned: 46,239 (+5,086 from 10/17)
#Trump (Rep): 39.2% (+0.5% from 10/17)
#HRC (Dem): 35.4% (-0.4% from 10/17) #Lib: 0.3% (same from 10/17)
# UNA: 25.1% (-0.1% from 10/17)
http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/data-points/over-500-000-votes-have-already-been-cast-2016-presidential-n665196 ( New data out) concerning early voting party affiliation in NC
2016: D 37%, R 38%, I 25% (so far)
2012: D 47%, R 32%, I 21%
Interesting stuff for number junkies.
Bellwether Hamilton County Ohio:
Absentee Ballot Requests and Returns as of 10-18-16 http://boe.hamilton-co.org/data/absentee-voters-list.aspx (Source Link)
9,673 (-257 from 10/17) more registered Republicans have requested an Absentee Ballot as of 10/17 (11.5% Lead down from 12.1% on 10/17 {-0.6%})
Vote-by-Mail Requested (Not Yet Returned)
REP: 28,425 (+350 from 10/17)
DEM: 18,752 (+607 from 10/17)
Non-Partisan (Independents): 36,492 (+765 from 10/17)
LIB: 27 (same from 10/17)
Green Party: 58 (+2 from 10/17)
Total Requested: 83,754 (+1,724 from 10/17) Trump#: 33.9% (-0.3% from 10/17)
HRC#: 22.4% (+0.3% from 10/17)
Non-Partisan (Independents): 43.6% (same from 10/17)
LIB: 0.03% (same from 10/17)
Green Party: 0.07% (same from 10/17)
770 (-2 from 10/17) more registered Democrats have returned an Absentee Ballot as of 10/17 (7.7% Lead down from 37.0% on 10/17 {-29.3%})
Voted-by-Mail Returned
REP: 3,101 (+2,798 from 10/17)
DEM: 3,871 (+2,796 from 10/17)
Non-Partisan (Independents): 3,593 (+2,893 from 10/17)
LIB: 5 (+5 from 10/17)
Green Party: 8 (+6 from 10/17)
Total Returned: 10,578 (+8,498 from 10/17)
Trump#: 29.3% (+14.7% from 10/17)
HRC#: 37.0% (-14.7% from 10/17)
Non-Partisan (Independents): 34.0% (+0.3% from 10/17)
LIB: 0.5% (+0.5% from 10/17)
Green Party: 0.8% (+0.7% from 10/17)
We are looking really good in Ohio.
In Florida:
At this point don’t concern yourself with any polls coming out of FL. These tallies which are released daily [are] what is actually happening on the ground. Latest Florida Early Mail Voting as of 10-18-16
5,833 (+5,799 from 10/17) more registered Republicans have returned an Early Mail In Ballot as of 10/17 (+0.9% Lead up from 0.0% on 10/17 {+0.9%})
Rep: 265,657 (+55,0288 from 10/17)
DEM: 259,824 (+49,229 from 10/17)
Other: 17,457 (+3,105 from 10/17)
No Party Affiliation: 96,874 (+19,600 from 10/17)
Total Returned: 639,812 (+126,962 from 10/17)
#Trump (Rep): 41.5% (+0.4% from 10/17)
#HRC(Dem): 40.6% (-0.5% from 10/17)
Other: 2.7% (-0.1% from 10/17)
No Party Affiliation: 15.1% (same from 10/17)
20,832 (-19,720 from 10/17) more registered Republicans have requested an Early Mail In Ballot as of 10/78 (0.9% Lead down from 1.6% on 10/17 {-0.7%})
Vote-by-Mail Requested (Not Yet Returned)
Rep: 940,578 (-41,261 from 10/17)
Dem: 919,746 (-21,541 from 10/17)
Other: 56,490 (-1,622 from 10/17)
No Party Affiliation: 442,731 (-3,690 from 10/17)
Total Requested: 2,359,545 (-68,114 from 10/17)
#Trump (Rep): 39.9% (-0.5% from 10/17)
#HRC (Dem): 39.0% (+0.2% from 10/17)
Other: 2.4% (same from 10/17)
No Party Affiliation: 18.8% (+0.4% from 10/17)
You can track this daily at https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats
In Pennsylvania:
Week of 10/10 to 10/16
2,680 Republicans switched to Democrat
4,007 Others (Ind.) switched to Democrat
5,197 Democrats switched to Republican
3,269 Others (Ind) switched to Republican
Yearly Total 2016
42,740 Republicans switched to Democrat
72,988 Others (Ind.) switched to Democrat (Many to Vote for Bernie in Primary)
106,159 Democrats switched to Republican
53,448 Others (Ind) switched to Republican (Many to Vote for Trump)
In Nevada
Early Voting Data from NV comparing early voting %s between 2012 and 2016
NV – 2012 44% D vs. 37% R
NV – 2016 33% D vs. 43% R (+17 points from 2012)
In NV at this time in 2012, the Party Affiliation of D and R was as follows
D = 42.2% (612,050 registered voters)
R = 34.1% (494,494 registered voters)
8.1% difference in favor of D
In NV at this time in 2016, the Party Affiliation of D and R was as follows
D = 39.8% (646,339 registered voters)
R = 33.0% (535,782 registered voters)
6.8% difference in favor of D
Large increase among Independents from 254,149 (17.5%) registered voters in 2012 to 334,960 (20.6%) registered voters in 2016.
Note: From 2012 numbers, Democrats have lost 2.4 % and Republicans have lost 1.1% while independents (favor Trump by 4 points) have seen an increase of their registration of 80,811 new voters.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/10/07/fox-news-poll-clinton-edges-trump-by-two-points-one-month-ahead-election.html
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/10/19/anti-gaslighting-raw-and-current-state-vote-data-not-remotely-close-to-media-polling/
I don’t think those women, most of them anyway, are “coming forward.” I think they are mostly being dragged and pushed forward, perhaps with threats and financial inducements.
Dems are deeply concerned that the faithful may not turn out or that conservative fence sitters and anti-Trumpers will hold their nose and start supporting Trump. And to keep the Trump faithful from becoming disheartened, many in the conservative media will claim the polls are outright rigged or find the poll or two that shows a better race for Trump.
That’s a LOT of numbers!!
I forgot who won in 2012. in NC
I don’t think those women, most of them anyway, are “coming forward.” I think they are mostly being dragged and pushed forward, perhaps with threats and financial inducements.
I heard that and remember thinking, “How in the hell can you ‘tighten’ when most polls hardly show her with an advantage?”
I usually just pass most of the daily poll threads. Most of the polls are weighted in favor of certain candidates.
In the final stretch, the polsters will want to be more accurate so they can use that accuracy pitch to sell their services for the next election.
Regarding financial inducements, I'd like to check out the bank accounts of some of these women to see if they've grown substantially in the past month or so. That would be very telling, indeed.
NC numbers are a bit worrisome but I know absolutely nothing when it come to the methodology of polls...but it looks like the rats have the advantage there..am I correct?...I’ll be more than happy to be completely wrong!
it will be a real “tell” if/when some of these crooked manipulative pollsters suddenly start turning toward a Trump victory in order to salvage some credibility for future business.
Polling is a business. People who would do far more despicable things would think not thing of faking up some numbers in an Excel spreadsheet and calling “poll results”.
Rush addressed this a month or so ago, pointing out that the mid-campaign polling was mostly of the “lies, damned lies, and statistics” variety intended to shape the message that “Trump=loser Hillary=winner”. He said that, as we got closer and closer to the election, the polls would gradually shift to more closely align with reality, because at the end of the day the polling organizations live and die by their reputation for being right.
There’s not much question on the ground that Trump is stomping Hillary as far as support goes, so as we pass through these final weeks, the polls are going to have to start reflecting that support or no one will ever believe the pollsters ever again.
Since a lot of the pollsters are closet leftists, they’ll probably drag their feet as much as possible, and try to keep shaping the narrative of Trump trailing Hillary right up to the final few days in hopes of convincing Trump supporters to “surrender now, Dorothy”, but in the end they’re going to have to show the Trump lead in all its glory or they’re going to look incompetent after the election.
This is 1980 all over again. Quite aside from the usual oversampling of Democrats (which is inapplicable when a movement Republican is running against an unlikable Democrat), there is the Shy Tory Factor, which means that many people planning to vote for the media-demonized non-liberal candidate have been bullied into keeping their support to themselves, thus affecting the accuracy.
If Clinton paid protestors $1,500 to go to Trump rallies and become violent, then offering these woman $5,000 or $10,000 to make up stories about Trump is fully expected. Just like the airplane fiction story, they all crashed and burned.
As soon as an allegation is launched, Trump’s lawyers should show up with a Complaint and a court reporter, put the tootsie under oath, and obtain a detailed statement of the supposed event.
Even Natie Silver knows the polls we see are fake and built on fake turnout models”
Huh? He does? Can you point us to a link or something on that?
This begs the question: “Why would a Clinton spokesperson say the polls would “tighten” let alone say “the polls [would] tighten significantly?”
So all the Polls up to this point are ENGINEERED ADVERTISING for Hillary, which makes them All an ILLEGAL IN KIND CONTRIBUTION to Hillary’s campaign.
Where is the FEC,FBI,CONgress....???
I don’t agree that the polls are going to change to reflect reality before the election this time around.
They are so in the tank for Hillary they will march lockstep with her right until the results are in, and maybe even after, even if they ‘die’ in the process.
But, I guess the expense of getting a random sample is prohibitive compared to using the models. So, the pollsters try to predict what the turnout will be. Even if we give them the benefit of the doubt that they are trying to be objective, there really is no way they can predict with any accuracy what the voter participation and party affiliation will look like. That is the real wild card in virtually every poll that is not truly random.
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