Posted on 10/17/2016 6:03:59 AM PDT by NYC-RepublicanCT
Folks - with just 3 weeks left, and the onslaught of polls expected from here on out, thought it might be a good idea to have a central spot where we can discuss polls as they come out... Dissect them, discuss internals, find reasons for realistic optimism...
If you choose to discount all polls, that's your prerogative, but can we please have this as a place for those who want to discuss polls of the day?
LATimes/USC -Daily Tracking- Trump up by 1.1%. Up from 0.6 yesterday. Could be statistical noise, but good to see that he's holding steady.
PPD Daily tracking Poll - Trump holding steady. Up 1.8%
Rasmussen -Hillary retakes the lead, +2. 43-41. Lots of opportunity for for Trump, as the GOP support is only in the mid-70s.
Battleground - Hillary +8. This is one of the most respected polls out there, and the sample size (D+4) is reasonable. The thing to note here, the sample dates are from 10/8 - 10/13 (smack in the middle of the media scandals against Trump). Poll ended Thu, and I'm betting that some of that shrill reporting has stopped having its intended effect
WashPost/ABC -Clinton up 4. Sample is D+2 among likely voters. If it turns out to be D+2 on election day, Trump has the edge. Sample is NOT D+8, as has been reported over and over again
NBC/WSJ -Historically among the worst polls around. Sample was D+7 OT D+9 (depending on how you interpret the soft/leaning Ds and Rs. If you want to include the leaners, it's D+7. If not, D+9. If you look at who the sample voted for in '12, they skew heavily towards Obama, indicating that the I's actually break heavily towards D... skewing this poll...
*** Any posts that say this is D+19 is wrong. They are comparing % Dems vs %Repubs. By that measure, the 2012 election was also D+19 (19% more Dems voted than Repubs).
*** I'm NOT validating the accuracy of any of these numbers, just trying to accurately report what THEY reported.
Trump had one of the worst, if not THE worst, weeks in modern presidential campaigning. The media onslaught was relentless and unimaginably sleazy! And, after all of that he’s still within the margin of error in most polls. I believe a solid performance on Wednesday night will make him unstoppable. I see these poll numbers as great news.
Agreed. You can’t just take polls at face value. We need to dig a little deeper. The GW poll, while highly respected (done by a Rep and Deb), it stared at the height of the turmoil, and ended 4 days ago... We’ll have to see how the next few days shake out... The next debate is key (if she doesn’t back out) and so are ads, in my opinion
I like troll polls...
NYC-RepublicanCT
Since Sep 14, 2016
I suspect that Trump will get 85-90% of Republicans on election day. Most will come home, they just won’t tell a pollster right now.
It IS a thing of beauty, indeed! Thanks
That he is somewhere between up by 1 or down by 8 sickens me too much to keep looking at these things.
What a disgraceful country that, God forbid she wins, deserves everything God’s got waiting for us if we continue down this path.
That’s all you have? Pathetic. Either engage or move on
If the disgraceful Never-Trump brigade would get on board, and Trump gets 85% support (very doable), he’s in great shape
October/November
Reagan Carter Anderson
40% 44% 9%
39% 45% 9%
47% 44% 8%
Actual result
51% 41% 7%
Keep the faith my friend. I believe it will turn around. The debate is key, as are ads... It’s nowhere near over. he will still pull it out
Some good news would be nice once in a while.
GFY...nOOb...
Take the heat for being a and FNG of float off into the ether that brought you here.
You upset you were born’d within the last 30 days and now yer secret is out?
Nice pic.
That, and Brexit, give me hope
No ked dean
Pathetic loser. Can’t add anything to the thread, so you insult.
Thanks for posting this, I haven’t been following too closely as I’ve had an intense business month and I’ve been helping local candidates who’ve have a shot at winning.
REALLY?!?!?! WOW!!!! and who the hell is anderson???
I was 12 at the time.
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