Posted on 10/17/2016 5:48:50 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Here are the RETURNED Florida Absentee Ballot numbers for 2016 (REPs led in this category by 79,000 in 2012). Approximately 17.4% of Absentee Ballots have been returned at this point.
10/17/16: REPs - 210,629, DEMs - 210,595 lead of 34 for REPs, 41.07% to 41.06%
10/16/16: REPs - 198,674, DEMs - 193,610 lead of 5,064 for REPs, 41.5% to 40.5%
10/15/16: REPs - 169,862, DEMs - 163,598 lead of 6,264 for REPs, 41.8% to 40.3%
10/14/16: REPs - 130,758, DEMs - 124,773 lead of 5,985 for REPs, 42.0% to 40.1%
10/13/16: REPs - 83,646, DEMs - 77,817 lead of 5,829 for REPs, 42.4% to 39.5%
10/12/16: REPs - 43,358, DEMs - 40,049 lead of 3,303 for REPs, 42.6% to 39.4%
10/11/16: REPs - 21,016, DEMs - 18,419 lead of 2,597 for REPs, 43.4% to 38.1%
10/10/16: REPs - 14,058, DEMs - 11,054 lead of 3,004 for REPs, 45.4% to 35.7%
10/09/16: REPs - 13,338, DEMs - 9,659, lead of 3,679 for REPs, 46.9% to 33.9%
10/07/16: REPs - 5,085, DEMs - 3,490, lead of 1,595 for REPs
10/06/16: REPs - 4,163, DEMs - 2,738, lead of 1,425 for REPs
For Hillsborough [battleground/swing county] (DEMs had a lead of 20,000 in 2012 early voting - that's absentee ballots plus in-person early voting):
10/17/16: REPs - 16,642, DEMs - 20,073, lead of 3,431 for DEMs
10/16/16: REPs - 16,642, DEMs - 20,073, lead of 3,431 for DEMs
10/15/16: REPs - 16,643, DEMs - 20,073, lead of 3,430 for DEMs
10/14/16: REPs - 12,937, DEMs - 15,764, lead of 2,827 for DEMs
10/13/16: REPs - 9,033, DEMs - 10,964, lead of 1,931 for DEMs
10/12/16: REPs - 3,778, DEMs - 4,403, lead of 625 for DEMs
10/11/16: REPs - 405, DEMs - 341, lead of 64 for REPs
So far in 2016, 17.66% of REP ballots have been returned and 18.28% of DEM ballots have been returned.
I'm predicting 78% of REP absentee ballots are returned and accepted and 76% of DEM absentee ballots are returned and accepted. Based on those assumptions, I'm predicting REP lead in returned and accepted absentee ballots by 54,695. Prediction will be updated daily.
Just a question: Why do you anticipate the D absentee ballot returns to be 6 points higher this cycle (76 versus 70)? I would think their turnout would be depressed versus the past two election cycles.
The dead votes are rising.
extended voter registration time and a combo of nursing home zombie votes and fraudulent registrations.
I is difficult to compare 2016 with 2012, given that this year there will be more people voting early ballots than on election day. However, it looks like Republicans will have a lower absentee advantage than in 2012. However, if more Dems are voting absentee this year than in person, it might wash out.
Republicans are also lagging on absentee requests and returns in North Carolina versus 2012. It is unclear at this point how much Hurricane Matthew has influenced the Republican requests, given that much of the Eastern part of the state was without power for an extended period of time.
However, if more Dems are voting absentee this year than in person, ...
—
It means more are voting twice.
Either way, I am disappointed reading these numbers.
Getting less optimistic over time.
The issue I have is, if the enthusiasm gap is real, and I have trouble believing it’s not, shouldn’t we be seeing it in these numbers? Something doesn’t make sense.
2014 was not a presidential election year. Presidential years have higher electoral participation.
In Cuyahoga county in Ohio (Cleveland area), DEM absentee ballot requests are down from 119k in 2012 to 73k today. Iowa DEM absentee numbers are way off their 2012 pace.
For some reason, that isn’t the case in Florida. At least yet. The hurricane could be a cause. It may simply be that more DEM voters are switching from in-person early voting and election day voting to absentee voting.
In-person early voting starts in Florida in 1 week. Then we can track absentee voting and in-person early voting numbers. That will give a better insight.
Don't forget, the dead always vote straight democrat ticket!
Still not trending well. Hope this changes.
Odd that returns in Hillsborough Co haven’t changed at all.
“In Cuyahoga county in Ohio (Cleveland area), DEM absentee ballot requests are down from 119k in 2012 to 73k today. Iowa DEM absentee numbers are way off their 2012 pace.
For some reason, that isn’t the case in Florida. At least yet. The hurricane could be a cause. It may simply be that more DEM voters are switching from in-person early voting and election day voting to absentee voting.
In-person early voting starts in Florida in 1 week. Then we can track absentee voting and in-person early voting numbers. That will give a better insight.”
Thank you for analyzing this. It seems like good news in Iowa and Ohio but not in Florida. It just doesn’t seem to add up.
FWIW I think the hurricane really did affect the early absentee ballots in NC and FL. That southern FL (heavy Dem area) was basically untouched and northern FL (heavy rep area) was pounded probably explains these close numbers at this point. Same thing seems to be in NC (if not even worse than FL) as they even just today are just recovering from the storms there.
Also it may be that many dems and independents are voting Trump. From what I’ve gathered it also appears many, many Trump supporters are going to vote on Election Day for fear of vote fraud both in terms of not letting the dems know how many votes need to be manufactured ahead of time and not trusting the absentee ballot process.
I’ve also heard the “reverse Operation Chaos” theory [i.e. many FL dems registered as rep to vote for Trump believing Trump was the weakest gop candidate] but if that’s true the gop absentee ballots should still be further ahead if these “fake gop” voters were turning in their ballots added to the absentee ballot lead the gop had in 2012.
I find it hard to believe that the gop would’ve netted an additional 263,000 registrations, had record primary turnout, be apparently doing well in IA and OH early voting and still not eventually win in FL.
Again just my opinion FWIW.
Sure....but then why isn’t the R percentage assumption also up 6 points, (or 8 or 10...or even just 4....)?
Fact: you can’t do that. Once you get an absentee, forced to vote that way or submit a provisional.
That is the county, I mentioned that sometimes gets updated every other day. Not sure why.
“FWIW I think the hurricane really did affect the early absentee ballots in NC and FL. That southern FL (heavy Dem area) was basically untouched and northern FL (heavy rep area) was pounded “
I’ve read articles to that affect.
“I find it hard to believe that the gop would’ve netted an additional 263,000 registrations, had record primary turnout, be apparently doing well in IA and OH early voting and still not eventually win in FL.”
Does seem the logical conclusion.
In the end, I think Trump wins Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina and Florida. The election (if my opinion) will come down to PA. Trump definitely has a shot at PA. If DEM numbers are way down in Cleveland and Columbus, that trend could be replayed in Pittsburgh and Philly.
Lacking 2012 data, I’m assuming the margin closes in 2016 vs 2014. I’m guessing a 2 percent differential. It is a starting point while waiting for more data.
REP have a 41,000 lead in requested absentee ballots. For sure, they are going to lead the absentee ballot returns. Question is how much.
FYI: Final percentage of DEM/GOP for all early voting (in person early voting and absentee voting) in 2012 was 42.9% DEM and 39.1% GOP. Also all forms of early voting was 56.5% of all votes cast.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.