So far in 2016, 17.66% of REP ballots have been returned and 18.28% of DEM ballots have been returned.
I'm predicting 78% of REP absentee ballots are returned and accepted and 76% of DEM absentee ballots are returned and accepted. Based on those assumptions, I'm predicting REP lead in returned and accepted absentee ballots by 54,695. Prediction will be updated daily.
Just a question: Why do you anticipate the D absentee ballot returns to be 6 points higher this cycle (76 versus 70)? I would think their turnout would be depressed versus the past two election cycles.
The dead votes are rising.
I is difficult to compare 2016 with 2012, given that this year there will be more people voting early ballots than on election day. However, it looks like Republicans will have a lower absentee advantage than in 2012. However, if more Dems are voting absentee this year than in person, it might wash out.
Republicans are also lagging on absentee requests and returns in North Carolina versus 2012. It is unclear at this point how much Hurricane Matthew has influenced the Republican requests, given that much of the Eastern part of the state was without power for an extended period of time.
Getting less optimistic over time.
Still not trending well. Hope this changes.
Odd that returns in Hillsborough Co haven’t changed at all.
I'm of the opinion that any "energy" shown in Democrat voting returns primarily represents Democrats who are voting for Donald Trump.
The Revolution is ON!
Vote Trump!
Maybe a lot of R voters want to vote in person to make sure everything goes a-okay. Of course still no certainty but maybe. My wretched state is ALL mail in, if I had a choice, I’d vote in person.