2016 Presidential Election Much Like 2014 Maine Gubernatorial Election

I see a lot of similarities between these elections. Possible outcome Trump 47.7, Hillary 44.1, all others 8.2.

Every poll gives Johnson and Stein at least 8 points. Bill Clinton only got 43% in '92 49% in '96. The Maine stream press (get it) tore LaPage apart for 4 years, right up to the election. No matter how many times they said the election in Maine was over, it didn't matter in the end. Blacks came out in droves for Obama. In 2010 and 2014 we saw what happens when he is not on the ballet. Trump is fighting like crazy and rebuffing the women scandals enough so that in another few days it will backfire. The Wikileaks stuff is seeping out. Hillary and her crew know that Gary Johnson is hurting her, and they've take measures to hurt him. Trump's people are incredibly loyal, I can't see any Trump people changing over to Hillary, but I can see a few Bernie people changing to Trump, and some blacks as well, not a lot, but enough. True, there are not many minorities in Maine compared to the US as a whole, but most live close to, or in Portland and read the Portland Press newspaper everyday, and there is a sizable white liberal class, bigger than the US as a whole. Any voter apathy from the Trump/Hillary scorched earth fight hurts Hillary more.

This may be the most difficult election to predict of my lifetime because it is hard to model the “populist” voters who generally don’t vote. It’s very difficult to model the Sanders supporters who will vote against her. It’s difficult to predict the minority voting blocks that are usually very reliable for the rats because they don’t seem enthusiastic. It’s difficult to predict how many “union” voters go for Trump. We have a crooked media and many crooked polls. We have polls that are built on previous election models and yet, there are signs that we can throw those out the window.

I don’t have a clue what will happen. I don’t think she will get the vote that Obama did or anything close, but I don’t know how Trump’s negatives will really depress his vote. In short, I don’t know how history helps us predict this one. The biggest historical trend in elections (the change vote) seems to be a big plus for Trump.

Bottom line - get out and vote. Beyond that..... we are all at the mercy of our fellow citizens.

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