Iowa Absentee REQUEST Statistics Updated (2016 vs 2012)

Dems have to build up a large early vote advantage to overcome the Republican advantage on election day. Goal for Dems is to build up a huge early vote advantage to and goal for GOP is to stay close to Dems in early absentee voting and surpass them on election day. This of course assumes Dems vote Clinton and GOP votes Trump. The Dems built a large lead in 2012 and were able to withstand GOP surge. In 2014, GOP stayed close behind in early voting and easily won that year. And then the unaffiliated are there too. Here is the running total for absentee REQUESTS at equivalent points in the 2012 and 2016 elections:

10/14/16: DEM-150,450; GOP-122,583; UAF-69,737

10/12/12: DEM-192,874; GOP-124,804; UAF-91,854

Large Dem drop-off from 2012 and signifiant UAF drop-off (Dem leaning indies not voting?) and basically similar GOP totals both years.

1 posted on 10/14/2016 2:25:28 PM PDT by Ravi

To: LS; SpeedyInTexas

2 posted on 10/14/2016 2:26:53 PM PDT by Ravi

The DEMs are down so much from 2012.

Look for Clinton to pull out of Iowa soon.

3 posted on 10/14/2016 2:52:01 PM PDT by SpeedyInTexas

To: SpeedyInTexas

I hear people are getting lots of mailers and TV ads in Iowa, and Dems have organized the get out the vote drive. These worked well for Marco Rubio in Iowa.

4 posted on 10/14/2016 2:55:51 PM PDT by apocalypto

Ravi is using the incorrect date.

5 posted on 10/14/2016 3:17:43 PM PDT by router899

Um, Little Marco was a loser in the end to Trump.

6 posted on 10/14/2016 3:35:06 PM PDT by SpeedyInTexas

Cheating worked well for Rubio in Iowa, trust me, I witnessed it. But thankfully the election is not a caucus. Trump is going to win Iowa.

7 posted on 10/14/2016 3:46:17 PM PDT by shempy (eat a bowl of f***)

add +1 for Iowa..my mom who hasn’t voted in 30 years is voting for Trump!!

8 posted on 10/14/2016 3:51:35 PM PDT by slatimer

9 posted on 10/14/2016 3:58:50 PM PDT by Ravi

Dems won by 90,000 votes in 2012. So a drop of 40,000 in Dem early votes shown here, while Republicans have maintained their 2012 early number - that's certainly promising. But didn't caucus goers have to register in a particular party to be able to caucus for that party? The gains in Republican caucus go-ers this year compared to 2012 was reported to be 64,000. So I think the drop in Independent/unaffiliated early votes this year compared to the 2012 early voting number could also partially be explained by defections to the Republican party this year from the UAF (in addition to what you said about Dem leaning UAF disinterest).

I think the best way to predict an outcome, with the report of the early votes, is to use the ratio of early votes to votes overall from year 2012, for each party. With that determine the overall votes for each party for this year and compare. That would result in Dems = 650,000 votes, Republicans = 715,000 votes. I was surprised to see in Iowa, that the Republicans had a higher proportion of voters utilizing early voting compared to their total votes than the Democrats did. Yes, Dems have higher number of early votes, but not relative to their overall votes. I don't now what the national trend is I think its the opposite. SO Iowa is unique that way maybe.

10 posted on 10/14/2016 5:05:56 PM PDT by right-wingin_It

Ravi is using the incorrect date.

11 posted on 10/14/2016 5:36:00 PM PDT by router899

Correct date. Friday 3.5 weeks before each election

12 posted on 10/14/2016 7:41:50 PM PDT by Ravi

To: right-wingin_It

Closed caucu. Once you pick a party you’re stuck there until you actively change it

13 posted on 10/14/2016 7:47:41 PM PDT by Ravi

Looks good...Go Trump Pence...

14 posted on 10/14/2016 8:46:48 PM PDT by Deplorable American1776 (Proud to be a DeplorableAmerican with a Deplorable Family...even the dog is DEPLORABLE :-))

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