Iowa Absentee Ballot Statistics Current

Iowa SOS ^ | 10/5/16 | me

[Ravi]

Comparison of equivalent points in time during election cycles this year, 2014 and 2012.

[Ravi]

A few notes here and to clarify for everyone...These are absentee ballot REQUESTS (not voted yet) by voters who are listed as registered GOP or DEM or Unaffiliated. We don't know how these registered voters will vote but we can presume based on their registered party affiliation.

In Iowa, Democrats have to run up the score with this early absentee voting to have some cushion when the Republican surge hits election day. Obama ran up huge early vote margins in 2008/2012 and hung on to win by 5.5% in 2012 which was about 89,000 votes. Joni Ernst won her senate seat in 2014 by a rather comfortable 8.5% and yet was still behind in early voting but kept it closer than in 2008/2012. So that is the goal here to keep it close.

So here are the absentee requests at equivalent points in time during the 2016, 2014, and 2012 election cycles:

10/5/16: DEM-101,141; GOP-59,464; UAF-43,664

10/1/14: DEM-99,731; GOP-57,221; UAF-40,389

10/3/12: DEM-155,592; GOP-74,354; UAF-62,507

We are tracking very close to 2014 patterns. FYI.

[Robert DeLong]

Republicans like to go to the polls, Democrats cheat with mail-in ballots.

[Ravi]

I prefer absentee myself. Used to use it in Florida.

[deport]

Republicans like to go to the polls,

***************

I like to go during inperson early voting. I find I’ll be around one of the locations
during that time. So I stop in, vote and go on my way. Usually isn’t that crowded.

[ri4dc]

We got on the mail in ballot list starting this year in AZ.
We will vote early, and then bug and assist our neighbors to go vote on election day.

[timestax]

[SpeedyInTexas]

Iowa and Ohio are in the bag.

Just need North Carolina, Florida and Pennsylvania to win.

I’m not that optimistic about Colorado or Nevada. But I really think Trump can win NC, FL, PA. Predicting Trump wins FL in a squeaker. NC with a slightly bigger margin. The big election day surprise will be PA. In the recent Quinnipiac PA poll, only 81% of DEMs supported Clinton in a 4 way race. If Clinton loses 20% of DEMs, she will be vulnerable.

[Ravi]

Honestly Wisconsin and Iowa are very similar.

[LS]

Team Trump is confident we are up in NV and CO.

[Not gonna take it anymore]

I’m making calls for Trump, and we’re calling Arizona

[SpeedyInTexas]

Well, you may have better information than me - because I have no information.

If Trump has good internal poll numbers, he should leak them to a friendly reporter.

I lived in CO in the 1990s - in Highlands Ranch for any of you CO residents out there. The state has been trending more Democratic over the years. Just read that DEM registrations have over taken REP registrations in CO for the first time since 1986. That says a lot.

On Nov 8th, when Trump takes PA make sure to send me a mail message saying how correct I was!

[LS]

PA won’t surprise me. Team Trump thinks it’s well within the “turnout margin.” Info that Trump getting 22% of Philly is very encouraging. But Bush got 20% and lost by 2%.

However, Bush isn’t Trump. I think Trump will utterly clean up in northern and western PA-—everything except Philly and Pittsburgh.