It appears to me, that online polls, in general, are showing better numbers for Trump than phone polls. I believe People Pundit Daily, UPI/CVoter, USC/LA Times poll are online polls and show Trump ahead. Quinnipiac, CNN, etc use phone polls and show Clinton ahead.
There are some exceptions: NBC/Survey monkey polls are online and they are better for Clinton.
Unless the online & phone polls converge by election day, I think we are likely to get a conclusive answer to how good online polls are vs phone polls.
Let me ask you this question 1. Are you for Trump? and 2. Do you answer polling companies on caller ID ? My hypothesis is that people with brains are for Trump and never answer those calls. Maybe I’m wrong?
Same thing if who you support is deemed sexist and the interviewer is a woman, or the interviewer sounds middle eastern and your candidate is tuff on Muslims, ect.
NONE of that is an issue online.
Not only do people tend to be more honest on an internet poll, but plenty of people (myself included) don’t even answer the phone if they don’t recognize the number calling. There’s no telling how skewed their telephone samples are, even if they’re not trying to manipulate them.
I wish I had a crystal ball. It’s just too hard to conceive of Clinton winning. I guess the night side is that our movement would become even more vocal an powerful. Trump needs to stay the hell off twitter and grow up a little and win this damn thing.
from my limited contact with libs, I find them to be loud-mouthed, in-your-face, opinionated know-it-alls who would leap at the opportunity to tell a pollster what they think.
I, for one, don’t talk to pollsters.
from my limited contact with libs, I find them to be loud-mouthed, in-your-face, opinionated know-it-alls who would leap at the opportunity to tell a pollster what they think.
I, for one, don’t talk to pollsters.
I mean really, who can prove a limited sample poll wrong?
my theory is that Pew is right.. and the changes in the phone polls after the debate, are not because people are changing who they are voting for but are changing because the peer pressure increased again to say they are voting for Hillary instead of Trump because of the massive media dumping on Trump... That is why the online polls show no change..
I might respond to more phone polls if they’d use a really ID for the caller ID, instead of it coming up with “New York” or something cryptic.
More accurate because I can delete my cookies and vote as much as I want to?
The issue doesn’t appear to be between online polls vs phone. It’s continuous random population sampling vs static population sampling. The La times/PPD use a static population that was representative and statistically significant and then call 1/7 of that same population each day, hitting all by the seventh day. This avoids significant statistal errors and sampling bias. Here is a recent study that discusses this issue and craps all over pew’s methodology and praises the LA Times approach, looking at 2012 and 2014 results vs polling predictions.
Here is e link- http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/unpublished/swing_voters.pdf
I don’t answer calls from area codes that I don’t recognize, especially during election seasons. I despise the current practice of almost-daily polls. They seem to be more about steering results than reporting them, and I resent it.
If, by chance, a pollster gets through, I refuse to respond.
I don’t have a problem with mashing a button on a web page, however ‘unscientific’ it may be.
Politicians, lawyers, most present-day journalists, pollsters -— don’t have much use for them, to put it politely...
Do a search for “auto response for poll script” to see why internet polls are garbage too.
Polls are by and from the same media that lies about everything else....