Posted on 10/01/2016 8:14:26 AM PDT by SoFloFreeper
We ask voters what the chance is that they will vote for Trump, Clinton or someone else, using a 0-100 scale. The overall level of support for each candidate reflects the weighted average of those responses.
(Excerpt) Read more at graphics.latimes.com ...
DJT loses 0.6%, Hitlery gains 0.6%.
I don't like.
An insignificant variation. Trump ahead by 4.4% is OK. He’s on a roll.
How is this poll done? Is it the same people day after day?
Wow. Tough audience. Your guy is 3.4 points from the magic 50 and you “don’t like.”
Your guy has one GREAT night fall off and it costs him 1 point.
Try looking at actual votes being cast, as in FL.
Margin there, while total # is small, is shocking:
R 47 D 32 I 21
The total number of absentee requests in FL so far is 2.2million, with Rs holding a stunning 143,900 lead over Ds.
I don’t count the Is because I assume for argument’s sake they will be 50 /50, even though every poll we have shows Trump winning them from 5-20%. But, for sake of argument, if Trump had a 10% margin of the Is it would mean that Trump will have a margin of 300,000 (!!!) just on the absentees alone.
TRUMP/Pence - 2016
Thank for bringing sanity to this thread....people need stop the hand wringing.
Results are weighted to match demographic characteristics, such as race and gender, from the U.S. Census Current Population Survey, and are aligned to the 2012 presidential election outcome using self-reported votes in that election.
There is NO WAY Hillary is going to get the turnout or voting block margins Obama got against that loser Romney! Trump is even further ahead than this poll suggests.
..IMO Trump is actually up 6-8 points. Oversampled Dems. Undersampled Rs and Independents. The volcano is going to blow in November...
I have been following this poll since its inception. I believe i understand the flucuations but am very confused with the third party vote. They could be very accurate. I don’t know. They don’t match the various other polls in these categories. Just concerned.
In the absence of a charismatic renegade able to command publicity, ‘third party’ candidates will make their usual showing, less than 2%, and won’t affect EVs at all.
Result of negative debate coverage and this Machado story. It’s the liberals new Judge Curiel or Khizr Kahn.
“...people need stop the hand wringing.”
Such people have no idea what sort of damage their defeatist comments do to troop morale.
And they wonder why the left wins so much of the time. It’s because they’ve got grit, and don’t tolerate defeatists in the ranks. Even when they lose, they reform ranks and keep pushing forward. They’re relentless, and don’t cave in over every setback.
There should be some fluctuations everyday in a poll. Look to the long tern trends
tern - term. I wish we hd an edit option :-)
Exactly. I’m reminded of the phrase, “a watched pot never boils.” If you stare at the polls every single day, you’re likely to suffer a lot of anxiety. It’s a lot like getting on the scale. If you weigh yourself everyday, it’s a recipe for misery, no matter how good your weight is.
Frankly, I think it’s best not to look at any polls more than once or twice a week. The LA Times poll is about the only one I look at, and I often purposely go days and often a week or more between my viewings of it. Doing so helps keep my spirits up. As they say, no news is good news. ;)
Please read what LS says about Florida and the trend overall...trust me, you’ll sleep better at night...I live in Florida and the trends are good here just like in a lot of other states...early voting starts here in Florida in 2-3 weeks...since you look at this poll every day like I do then look at the polls trends before her health issue and after...that will tell you that event was significant in the minds of voters...I was surprised that Hillary ticked up today as well, but I’ll take a 4.4 point lead going into October every day of the week and twice on Sunday...
Let’s focus on Pence and Trump having good debate showings this week!
Stay Focused and Frosty.
TG
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