Posted on 09/29/2016 5:32:29 AM PDT by NYC-RepublicanCT
Following Monday night’s debate, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are running virtually even in Rasmussen Reports’ first daily White House Watch survey.
Our latest national telephone and online survey of Likely U.S. Voters finds Clinton with 42% support to Trump’s 41%. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson earns seven percent (7%) of the vote, while Green Party nominee Jill Stein holds steady at two percent (2%). Three percent (3%) still like some other candidate, and five percent (5%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
Trump had been moving ahead over the two previous weeks and held a 44% to 39% lead over Clinton last week at this time. It was the first time he had been ahead since mid-July.
Eighty percent (80%) say they are sure which candidate they will vote for, and among these voters, Clinton and Trump are tied with 48% support each. Among voters who say they could still change their minds, it’s Clinton 34%, Trump 33%, Johnson 25% and Stein 8%.
I expect Trump to move ahead over the next several days... let’s not worry.
And how much did they over-represent Dems?
Amazing — 300 to see Hillary and Bernie...20,000 to see Trump. Guess my eyes deceive me.
it is now all about the margin of fraud.
We need poll watchers plus
“extreme poll watching”?
Starting tomorrow, till Election Day, this will be a DAILY tracking poll- rolling 3 days (which is more topical and effective than a 7 day rolling average)... 9:30 each morning
I really don’t understand how anyone can change their minds about something so important, and so based in your values.
Trump could have fallen asleep on stage and said nothing, and I still wouldn’t change my allegiance.
No telling - methodology says it's an automated poll and I didn't see any stats on breakdowns. Easy enough to ensure certain party numbers (from past statistics) are called over other party members......
It seems to be fair... I expect most of the Johnson votes to eventually move to Trump - he isn’t going to get 7% by November.
Hillary is stuck in the low 40s and has no room for growth.
That’s where Trump should do very well.
Temporary noise due to the debate. Rasmussen polls make no sense. They are drawing even support from their own parties yet Trump is up 10 points with independents. This poll is again heavily oversampled with Dems, at least +6. We will see shortly of the pollsters have it right or of turnout is on par with 2004 when R/D split equally.
How are the democrats going to get out the vote when they can’t get anyone to come and see Hillary. After her robotic performance Monday you would think the cars would be bumper to bumper from Boston to Durham to see her. A thousand people and they threw in Bernie too. Wow. Move over Jeb, there is a new low energy in town.
Clinton and Trump each have the support of 79% of the voters of their respective parties. Ten percent (10%) of Democrats favor Trump, while 13% of Republicans opt for Clinton. Trump leads by 12 points among voters not affiliated with either major political party, but Johnson earns 15% support in this group. The Libertarian hopeful also picks up four percent (4%) of Republicans and two percent (2%) of Democrats. Stein gets six percent (6%) of the unaffiliated vote and remains in low single digits among the voters of the two major parties.
We know that Trump voters are on average more energized—as where Bernie voters.
Doesn’t mean we have to ignore other information as it comes in.
And that’s about how the two parties are actually balanced among voters.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2012/10/03/what-political-scientists-know-about-debates/
Do presidential debates usually matter? Political scientists say no.
Clinton we can assume will not get the same turnout at Obama did in 2012. The real question is if Trump can mobilize turnout that exceeds that of Romney. That is not a given, as a certain undefined portion of the GOP is NeverTrump.
Demographic information is available to Platinum members only.
Gallup: Democrats who ‘will definitely vote’ at 16-year low
I know but 89 million watched the debate ....that’s a YUGE audience! Lots of first time viewers for trump. They tuned in to see Trump not the beast!
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