Electoral Votes Continue to Trend toward Trump - Weekly Update (Vanity)

Self | 9/15/16 | Scouter

[demkicker]

Trump can SOOOO win this election if he plays it smart during the debates. I pray he will not hand Hitlery the election by hitting back ‘too hard’ because she will no doubt try her best to get under his skin (which many claim to be thin). And I don’t want him to give the MSM any ammunition.

[mainerforglobalwarming]

Maine at least 1 ev.

[freedom1st]

Thanks for your analysis. I like your objective analytical review instead of a subjective review.

[Awgie]

The “debates” have never been so important, critical and pivotal. It will be Trump against Hillary, the moderator and the hand picked audience.

[Disestablishmentarian]

This is great stuff. Thank you.

Personally, I put NC, NV , WI and MI in Trump’s column, while still calling CO a tossup. But, admittedly, I allow myself a subjective component (because I can!)

[mrsmith]

Historically, never minding the effect of actual events upon the polls, it’s reasonable to assume a 3 or 4% change towards Trump- which looks mighty good.

Here’s electoral weirdness: The ‘expert’ prognosis of a Trump win currently runs through Wisconcin!
http://www.270towin.com/maps/princeton-election-consortium
IE: that’s the smallest change in their (adjustable) map that gives him a victory.

And thanks for your informative and useful post!

[scouter]

Just for everyone's information, I got the data for this from a web site I follow called Electoral-Vote.com. They have been pretty accurate, historically, even if their commentary is left-leaning. The URL is: http://www.electoral-vote.com

[LS]

NC is safe. No way Trump will lose a state Minion won, esp. after massive GOP registration changes and when, in neighboring SC, Trump is drawing 25% black vote in the latest poll.

NV is pretty much safe. Ditto on registration changes, esp. in Washoe Co.

I agree CO is a tossup, but latest polls-—whether they have Trump winning or not-—ALL have him moving up. And ME congressional district is +1. So, with all due respect, you need to move 19 EVs to Trump.

[scouter]

I hear you, but I'm just reporting and analyzing the data as reported on electoral-vote.com. I'm leaving further analysis and opinion to others like you, who are more in tune with some of the details, like Maine's congressional district, individual counties, voter registration efforts, and the relative safety of individual states.

[LS]

I know. But it’s black-and-white kinds of electoral vote analysis that completely missed Reagan’s & Bush’s massive comebacks in 80 and 88. In fact, I don’t know if you saw this, but in June 1964, Goldwater was behind by almost 60 points. He lost by 23.

Now, that’s a helluva error, even though LBJ still won. As a pollster, I don’t think I’d be proud of that, and it suggests if race kept going, it would have been even closer.

[simpson96]

[scouter]

My point isn’t that additional, subjective analysis isn’t appropriate. I’m just saying that I don’t think I’m qualified to do it. I’m leaving that to people who know more about it. So I’m doing the objective part that I think will help them understand and elucidate what’s going on. Kind of like what you’re saying about things that I don’t know, such as the one Maine electoral vote, etc. I’m not going to count them myself until electoral-vote.com says they’re his. The point of this is to give you the ability to adjust these objective numbers, as you’ve done, bringing in subjective interpretation, and other facts and data that I don’t have.

[TaxPayer2000]

Thanks!

[TaxPayer2000]

Thanks!

[wyowolf]

Alabama Alaska etc going from Strongly to likely??? why??

[scouter]

Alabama Alaska etc going from Strongly to likely??? why??

That's what the data says. I don't know why. Perhaps because they're smaller states (population-wise) it doesn't take as many people to create a trend in one direction or the other. Electoral-Vote.com considers a state to be "likely" if the margin between the candidates is 5-9%. Ten percent or more is considered "strong." Here's the data for those two states:

Date	State	Trump	Clinton
8/25	Alabama	61%	38%
9/15	Alabama	51%	42%
8/25	Alaska	55%	42%
9/15	Alaska	38%	31%

[thingumbob]

Read on an earlier thread that RCP threw the 538 poll out of their averages so it would make Hillarys number go up instead of further down.

don't like the 538 libs but at least their numbers seemed to be objective.as opposed to RCP's crap filled averages. Desperation seems to be setting in.......insert gloating smile here.......

[Ozark Tom]

Prime the topic pump of social media and let loose through that avenue. The censorship in those venues is creating a self focus as the ‘Streisand effect’ did in the MSM.

Their reign of the conversation is a negative to be pushed hard and turned into a positive. Make them defend their playbook of media manipulation and partisanship. Allow a look behind the curtain, a revealing of the elite’s wizard of thought control.

[Twinkie]

VOTE TRUMP ANYWAY!!!