This is great stuff. Thank you.
Personally, I put NC, NV , WI and MI in Trump’s column, while still calling CO a tossup. But, admittedly, I allow myself a subjective component (because I can!)
NC is safe. No way Trump will lose a state Minion won, esp. after massive GOP registration changes and when, in neighboring SC, Trump is drawing 25% black vote in the latest poll.
NV is pretty much safe. Ditto on registration changes, esp. in Washoe Co.
I agree CO is a tossup, but latest polls-—whether they have Trump winning or not-—ALL have him moving up. And ME congressional district is +1. So, with all due respect, you need to move 19 EVs to Trump.