GWU/Battleground (8/28-9/1): Clinton-42; Trump-40; Johnson-11 (D+5 sample)

GWU ^ | 9/7/16 | GWU

[Ravi]

GW Battleground (LVIX)

[Ravi]

Not too bad considering sample.

[RoseofTexas]

Not good either he should’ve been way ahead!!

[Donglalinger]

3.1 MOE and taken before FBI document dump

[lodi90]

National poll? Confusing title.

[LRoggy]

This was taken 8/28 - 9/1 . . . BEFORE the FBI data dump on Friday

[SamAdams76]

No way is Gary Johnson getting 11 per cent! Most of that is a "parked" Trump vote.

And using D+5 is just not realistic considering the lack of enthusiasm with Crooked Hillary and the grass roots enthusiasm behind Trump that did not exist with Mitt Romney.

Wasn't D+5 the turnout in 2012? That will not be repeated this year.

[TakebackGOP]

Johnson supporters in polls are people afraid to say they support Trump.

[InterceptPoint]

The Sample Bias is the tool of choice for the MSM. So what should that bias be? Big Trump turnout so it should be R+5? Or an Obama in 2008 type turnout and then it's perhaps D+4.

Thinking about this reminded me of how far off the polling was in 2012 and 2014. A bit heavy on the GOP side in 2012 where the polls were, on the average, about R+2 over how the vote actually went.

But in 2014 when we took over the Senate it was a wildly different story. Here is image of the Nate Silver (flaming liberal) take on the polls in 2014 where, according to Silver, the average bias was D+6. And that was a year when we were really motivated. But it was not an election year when the Dem Turnout and Election Fraud Machine was fully in action.

[austinaero]

I’ve been watching RCP aggregate numbers and Hillary’s lead has been steadily shrinking. 2-3 week ago she was +10 over Trump and today she is down to +3.3.

Timing.

[SamAdams76]

This was taken 8/28 - 9/1 . . . BEFORE the FBI data dump on Friday

Nobody but us news junkies knows or cares about the FBI data dump. Sad to say.

But this poll is BS. Move most of the Johnson vote to Trump and make it R+1 or even D+1 and Trump will have a healthy lead. This is supported by the fact that Trump has a 20 point lead among Independents (Romney only won them by 5 points in 2012) and has over 50% of the married woman vote - which is devastating to Crooked Hillary.

If Trump can continue to make inroads with Blacks and Hispanics, we move into landslide territory.

[Trumpisourlastchance]

This poll overweighs women by a lot.

[Trumpisourlastchance]

The electorate is not 54% female, as this poll was.

[ctpsb]

If this is honest and accurate 2012 was actually D+7.

I hope it’s much less than that now.

http://www.businessinsider.com/exit-polls-election-obama-vs-romney-youth-latino-black-catholic-sampling-2012-11

[LS]

Women about +6

I don’t see a +5 D -—I see +3.

[TigerClaws]

Agree.
Johnson supporters will realize they are voting for Hillary by default and vote to stop her by pulling the lever for Trump.

[Gay State Conservative]

The electorate is not 54% female, as this poll was.

IIRC females make up a bit more than 50% of the population.And isn't it true that women are a bit more likely to vote than men? If so 52% might be close to accurate.

[ctpsb]

“The electorate is not 54% female, as this poll was.”

Not saying that this year it will happen and that many of these women aren’t for Trump this year but the general assumption of 54% female doesn’t seem that far off as in 2012 it was 53% women.

http://ropercenter.cornell.edu/polls/us-elections/how-groups-voted/how-groups-voted-2012/

[Ravi]

Sorry I thought everyone knew GWU/Battleground is always national.

[goldstategop]

Poll taken well before Labor Day and Hillary is stuck in the low 40s.

In reality, she’s polling well below that. Trump is going to win.

Gary Johnson’s number will shrink dramatically as most of his voters go over to Trump.

And no - its not going to be D +5 - either in early voting let alone in November.

[LS]

A couple of things:

Women about +7

D/R not bad (about +3 D), but 45% are strongly against ALL the candidates, even Johnson and Stein.

54% of the sample is conservative or somewhat conservative and only 3% “moderate”-— which seems silly.

All of the “for/against” between Trump and Cankles are pretty well even. The numbers that concern me-—if again this is even close to accurate, is that Cankles is slightly higher on the economy (!) and higher on the old “cares about me/cares about the middle class”.

Economy #1 issue, immigration at 7% but I see that as contained in the economy.