PPD Poll: Trump 43.6 Cankles 41.2

People's Pundit Daily ^ | 9/6/2016

[LS]

1142 Likely Voters

Trump had a spurt on 9/3, which seems an outlier but hasn't trailed since 9/29 and has inched up. Fourth poll to show him with a lead (CNN, Reuters, USC). All but Retuers are 2-point leads.

I don't have UPI . . . anyone? Bueller?

[DarthVader]

Rasmussen makes it 5.

[xzins]

FTTW Poll has Trump by a breeze.

(Finger to the Wind = FTTW)

[DarthVader]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/white_house_watch

[LS]

NBC MN: in a four way, Trump down 7.

Minion Romney lost MN by 7.5.

[chris37]

I do not believe Illary has 41.2 at all.

Have you ever seen a worse candidate than this hacking, infirm, weakling?

[pieceofthepuzzle]

Do they show results for two-way?

[Political Junkie Too]

I've started compiling my forecast model for 21016. I'm waiting for this to show up in individual state polls. Currently, I have Trump at a 21% chance of winning based an state polling.

-PJ

[NormsRevenge]

Bring on the debates!!!

[IVAXMAN]

NBC MN: in a four way, Trump down 7.

Minion Romney lost MN by 7.5.

---

Jul 30 - Aug 2 PPP (D) 44% 39% 1,015 RV

PPP only has Trump down by 5% in MN.

He is already doing better then Romney if this is accurate.

[goldstategop]

Stable lead.

Just what I expected after Labor Day.

Trump won’t have to look back.

[fwdude]

Cankles? More like “Coughles.”

[Zarro]

MN? “Land of a Thousand Imported Somali Voters”?

[LS]

That’s a month old.

[LS]

I don’t buy that. I think he’s solid in OH, really safe in FL, AZ, ahead in NV, IA, tied in PA (at least) and probably tied or ahead in VA and NH. That’s the election right there.

All these other states are very close like CT, NJ, WI, ME, and OR. Probably the “gone” states are CO, CA, WA, IL, VT, MA, RI, DE, and maybe NM and MN.

[Red Badger]

UPI Poll: The online poll shows Clinton with 48.55 percent to Trump's 46.5 percent.

[LS]

Well, that’s the first time they’ve had Cankles up in a while and the highest UPI has had her, right?

[Political Junkie Too]

I understand, but I have to establish a baseline.

Based on all of the state polls counted by RCP and applying my own poll-to-probability conversions, a Monte Carlo simulation of the state polls as of Labor Day show it that way.

That's why I'm waiting for these national poll shifts to make their way to the state polls.

Last cycle, I was basing my model exclusively on the Rasmussen polls. This time, I modified my model to use poll averaging similar to (but not the same as) RCP and 538.

So, I'll be watching the state-by-state for movement towards the national. I'll probably publish my first edition of this cycle later this week.

-PJ

[Red Badger]

For ON-LINE POLL, she’s doing terrible. She can’t even break 50% in one............

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/09/05/UPICVoter-poll-Hillary-Clinton-edges-out-Donald-Trump-with-385-point-lead/2051473089153/

[LS]

LOL, no, don’t base it on Rasmussen, who missed the election in 2012 by about 6. Ras was one of the worst.