Posted on 08/24/2016 8:28:00 PM PDT by Rufus Shinra
Donald Trump’s new campaign manager Kellyanne Conway said in an interview today that Trump is performing much better in polls than the mainstream media is reporting.
During an interview with UK’s Channel 4, Conway was asked asked about recent poll numbers showing Donald Trump trailing Hillary Clinton in key swing states, as well as nationally. She brought up an interesting point, and one that many Donald Trump supporters have been suggesting for some time, and that is the vast difference between online polling and human interaction polls.
Kellyanne Conway stated that their campaign’s internal polling is confidential, but she did say that polling is very unique to Donald Trump. “Donald Trump performs consistently better in online polling where a human being is not talking to another human being about what he or she may do in elections,” she explained.
She claimed that the difference is in part due to it not being “socially desirable” to admit to a stranger that you’re a Trump supporter, and the “hidden Trump vote” is a very significant factor.
The interviewer admitted that the pollsters got it “spectacularly wrong” when it came to the Brexit results, and asked Conway if she thought something similar to that could happen in the US election.
Conway responded:
Yes, everybody who was looking at this calmly and objectively thinks that … I think if the elites – what I call the wrist-flickers – are just dismissing that – oh Donald Trump can never be president, oh Brexit is so – it’s just for these unwashed rubes, these hillbillies with no teeth and long hair. I mean that’s just unfair.”
Finally, Kellyanne Conway concluded this topic by saying the Trump campaign is performing a project called, “undercover Trump voter”, stating that this phenomenon is real , and if you talk to people around the country you will see it’s real as well.
Although mainstream media pundits and pollsters will likely scoff at this notion, let’s not remember what the owner of the highly praised statistical website Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver, said about Donald Trump’s chances of winning the primary:
“For this reason alone, Trump has a better chance of cameoing in another “Home Alone” movie with Macaulay Culkin — or playing in the NBA Finals — than winning the Republican nomination.,”
– Nate Silver, July 16th, 2015.
“The lesson … is that Trump’s campaign will fail by one means or another. Like Cain, Bachmann and Gingrich, Buchanan, Huckabee and Forbes came nowhere close to winning the Republican nomination,” Silver wrote. He pegged Trump’s odds of winning the nomination at 2 percent, and laid out the so-called “six stages of doom” for his campaign.
– Nate Silver, Aug 6th, 2015.
Nate Silver certainly wasn’t alone in doubting Trump’s chances of ever becoming the Republican party’s presidential candidate, and every single one was proved wrong.
It’s certainly not too far fetched to peg the current mainstream polls showing enormous Hillary Clinton leads as unreliable, since this election has broken historic records that no one could have predicted.
Donald Trump also has the advantage of the first-time and disenfranchised voters, who would not be included in standard polls because the pollsters typically only reach out to “likely voters.” Likely voters are classified as those who have voted within the past two election cycles.
In fact, back in November of 2015, a 92 year old woman who had never voted in her life, came out to a Trump rally to tell him that she will be casting her first vote for him in the upcoming election.
Millions of American’s who have had no past interest in politics, or felt that no candidate has ever spoken for their concerns, have come out in force to rally behind Donald Trump this year. If enough of them cast their votes on November 8th, the pundits could be proved terribly wrong once again.
The political pundits and pollsters would have to throw out every algorithm they’ve ever constructed for presidential polling if Donald Trump were to win this year, and that wouldn’t be a bad thing at all.
The full Kellyanne Conway interview can be viewed here.
If a 92 year old woman who has never voted in her entire life just registered to vote so she could pull the lever for Trump in November, then there's plenty of other people out there who could turn this into one of the biggest upsets in election history.
Not sure I trust Conway. She was a rabid Lyn’ Ted supporter. Something about her is off.
In this situation she’s directly over the target.
Millions of PO’d Americans simply stopped voting over the past several decades because the endless lies and decline, etc. They got fed up and simply stopped for lots of reasons. It’s a safe bet millions of those folks will come out of the woodwork this election just for the payback factor alone.
A real safe bet.
Simply ask them if they voted in the primary.
A newly energized voter who previously could have cared less about politics and maybe has never voted in a general election would have been existed enough to have voted in the primary.
All a pollster would have to do to identify these “new voters” would be to cross reference those voters their models would usually classify and “not likely” to vote in the general in a normal election with those voters in that category who voted in the primary.
Once you had that information you could identify what percentage of likely voters are these “new likely voters”
Using this method, one could determine the size of any hidden voting block traditional methods might be missing.
Stumped By Trump’s Success Take A Drive Outside US Cities
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3462260/posts
excited not existed, sorry.
Trump is smart. He will fire her if she doesn’t perform as he wishes.
She totally set Trump up with the “he doesn’t do personal insults” remark. Bannon is proving his worth, but she should be on probation.
Pray for it, I am.
“He will fire her if she doesn’t perform as he wishes.”
If this were a normal situation, yes. Perception is real tough to control though.
He can’t go through 3 campaign managers in 3 weeks without creating some pretty negative perceptions. He has to stick it out with her, take the good and bad, for a while.
It is weird. I have no explanation for it. It seemed to happen slowly, then all at once!
His secret weapon, is his connection to the common man.
This is his number one weapon, and it is dismissed all the time.
His core promises to this point, have garnered him this support.
Moderation, is no way to go forward from here KellyAnne. Trump knows it, and you’re supposed to be the expert. I suspect you’re guiding him wrong already.
I hope KellyAnne doesn’t misdirect him. This immigration speech cancellation has me wondering if she’s the GOPe mole.
If they get their way, they’ll still snatch defeat from the Jaws of Victory.
It disgusts me to see that we have people even here on FR already setting up Conway as a scapegoat. These morons are just aching to lose so they can blame somebody.
Yep.
It has happened with our education system, our kids are being brainwashed and we thought it was happening slowly but NOW we have the adults that have been brought through the school system and it seems like WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED!!! What happened is the children are NOW adults and this is what our education system has provided us!!!
Yeah we should just support her blindly and check our brains at the door. Let her screw up and ignore it.
I think your time frame is mistaken.
Lewandowski was replaced partly due to the incident with a news reporter. (Which turned out to be false.)
Manafort was hired to get representatives during the primaries. Manafort is still on staff as a consultant according to my understanding.
Conway and Bannon have been given specific tasks to do.
Think of Trump — he hires people to get one thing done and then lets them go or has them stay on as a consultant. It’s different from what we are used to in a campaign.
You sound like you checked your brains at the door years ago. Now you just want to lose so you can bitch about it. Try winning.
True, but in terms of holding an official title we can recognize, they are it.
He likes his people to wear a lot of hats. Corey was simultaneously the campaign manager and in charge of security along with who knows what other responsibilities. Sometimes it works, sometimes all the plates come crashing down. I’m praying we are at the end of this learning curve.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.