Posted on 08/22/2016 5:12:15 PM PDT by mandaladon
Is this a measure of enthusiasm for Donald Trump, or the effectiveness of the RNC’s extensive investment in ground operations? Despite polling that suggests — at the moment — that Republicans will experience a wipeout in swing states in the presidential election, voter registration data shows the GOP gaining momentum. In key swing states, Republican registrations and party-switching has outpaced Democrats, raising questions about enthusiasm and turnout models:
Trump’s poll numbers remain dire, but he can point to at least one ray of hope for a turnaround: Republicans have continued gaining ground in recent months in voter registration in Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Iowa, while the late surge in Democratic registrations relative to Republican registrations that occurred in battleground states the final months of the 2012 election had not materialized in numbers released in early August.
“The atmospherics of voter registration trends in those states do not point to a strong Democratic year, so that’s one negative the Trump campaign does not have to deal with at this point,” said Louisiana pollster John Couvillon, who added that spikes in registration can add a point or two to a candidate’s vote share in a close race. “The voter registration data I’m seeing does not support the idea of a surge in Democratic voter enthusiasm.”
The dynamic is strongest right where Trump and Republicans most need it — in the Keystone State:
(Excerpt) Read more at hotair.com ...
“Trump’s poll numbers remain dire.” No they don’t Morrissey, at least not the polls that I have seen. This guy is suppose to be on our side, but what drivel can you expect for a guy who guest hosts for Hugh Hewitt?
You mean the Hugh Hewitt trying to play both sides of the fence? Thoroughly Cucked!
just ask Charlie Sykes...
Hot air is dead. An echo chamber of never trump fools.
This is really good news. Those who have prematurely written off Trump are really missing several key indicators.
1. The GOP has closed the gap in party id. The parties are virtually tied with independents representing the single largest group.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx
If you go back and compare exit polls versus party id to get a sense of how turn aligned with party id you find that for the 2 major parties the party id tends to align with the % they actually get. Independents however tend to turnout somewhat less than they poll on party id.
2. Polls are assuming 2012 models. We got burned in 2012 because many assumed a greater fall off of Obama support than actually occurred so Romney lost even though he managed to cut Obama’s vote share. Obama isn’t in the race this time and theirs no evidence that Clinton can inspire people to the polls like Obama. While she is a woman she is also a woman that drives up male support for Trump and Trump is getting nearly twice as many independents as Romney did in 2012.
3. Nearly 1/4 of the electorate refuses to say who they will vote for. These voters typically favor the challenger.
4. The wrong track indicator is a huge advantage to Trump at the end of the day. Clinton is the de facto incumbent so she will face the brunt of upset voters and people who are upset tend to vote.
TRUMP IS WINNING!!
I think this might be the one time when high turnout is good for our side. I think maybe a lot of folks are engaged who maybe have never been before, or at least for a long time. We’ll see I suppose. We haven’t had 65% voter turnout since 1908, most of the time since it has been way less than that.
Freegards
To paraphrase Joseph Stalin, “The people who cast the votes decide nothing. The people who build the voting machines decide everything.” - Joseph Stalin quotes from BrainyQuote.com.
That’s unexpected. Trump predicted it, but who would have guessed that he would be right? Again.
Huh?
While not recent these are terrible...
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_clinton-5633.html
I’ve heard a bunch about this.
Hopeful sign, I hope.
BUT there’s THIS!! And, because the pubby establishment hates Trump more than they do Hitlery, they will do NOTHING about it!!
Devvy writes on a subject that has been on my radar for years and SHOULD concern anyone who values freedom and HONEST ELECTIONS!
“Those who vote decide NOTHING. Those who COUNT the votes decide EVERYTHING!” Stalin
How does YOUR state stack up??
http://www.devvy.com/new_site/archives.html
Thank you for the good news ping, Impy!
Ed has been anti-Trump, from the beginning. If he’s trying to come across as supporting Trump, now...I’m not buying what he’s selling.
BTW, Ed....it’s Trump enthusiasm, not the RNC efforts. Brown-noser.
Re #2. IMO, Romney probably won. I think there was enough falloff of 0vomit support for him to win, but it was covered over with vote fraud. Hitlery may attract some enthusiasm in a certain segment of the female population, but she also repulses a good number of women. There are plenty of women who will vote for a man they find “attractive” but will vote against almost any woman. This type of woman will dislike any woman who is “threatening” to her, either because she is attractive (not a factor in Hitlery’s case) or powerful.
Re #3. Agree. An additional factor is that many conservatives refuse to say who they will vote for because they don’t want to participate in polls. Also, IMO, there are few GOPe types who will reluctantly vote Trump but don’t want to admit it.
I feel like making a Howard Dean crow:
“Yeaaaaaah!”
party switching is one thing.
new voter registration is another entirely, if we see that.
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