Posted on 08/16/2016 12:51:52 PM PDT by GilGil
The convention polling bumps for Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton and Republican Donald Trump are over, and they are practically even, according to a new poll of likely voters.
A Zogby Analytics survey provided to Secrets Tuesday shows:
Hillary Clinton 38%
Donald Trump 36%
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonexaminer.com ...
I have to disagree, respectfully, if you look at recent history.
I do agree that Trump is drawing much bigger crowds. That is better than small crowds and DOES indicate enthusiastic support among those who DO support him. So it is a positive, but not necessarily an indicator of greater support than Hitlery.
Let me just remind you of three recent examples:
1. 2004: Screamin' Howard Dean the lunatic from (ahem) Vermont...drew massive crowds. But John Kerry prevailed.
2. 2012: The waning days of the general election, Mitt Romney had very good size crowds--rivaling or beating those of the man child ward of Valerie Jarrett. Everyone, even Mitt, expected a victory.
3. 2016: another cranky old guy from Vermont had yuuuuuge crowds of enthusiastic folk. And yet, the machine of Hitlery was organized and destroyed him. Now, the old man is Berning a doobie in a new $600,000 house while his supporters are left holding the bag.
I do not say this to discourage, but to be real.
I pray, give, try to persuade in a winsome manner, and intend to vote for Trump. This may be our last chance to destroy statism.
But we can't assume victory. The monsters of big government in both parties are against us.
Here is the really, really bad news for Hillary. She cannot break out of the 40% mark. As an incumbent proxy she is in mega trouble.
And as a former First Lady, US Senator, and Sec of State, her name recognition alone should push her towards the 50% mark. But alas she’s just another lying, conniving Clinton who lied to Congress just like her spouse did.
Polls are now for a 4 way race. They didn’t start(generally) doing this until after the Dem Convention. I pointed this out at the time. Clinton was in the high 40’s in a 2 way race but dropped significantly in a 4 way. Despite the bias, Hillary can’t break 40-42% in a 4 way race. Even in a 2 wat she couldn’t break 45%.
Team Hillary has spent hundreds of millions of dollars on advertising and yet, she has barely scratched Trumps support. Trump, thus far, has spent ZERO.
When Trump gets his ad campaign in gear, it’s going to be a bloodbath.
but whenever there’s a poll favoring Trump, it’s just accepted on its face.
human nature; we accept that which pleases us more readily...
OMG Zogby to the rescue. Jesus wept.
What did the other 26% pick?
Maybe they were given a third option--"hope that the earth is destroyed by a giant meteor"--and chose that.
Why?
Maybe they were given a third option—”hope that the earth is destroyed by a giant meteor”—and chose that.
_____________________
How did you guess?
You wouldn’t know this watching Fox. According to them he’s white voters, republicans and women are leaving him in droves. Same crap every day.
“Let me just remind you of three recent examples”
==
You raise a very good point, but you also have to keep in mind that the incidents of large crowds were pretty much near the end of the campaigns, when people had been whipped up to the max after a long stretch. It is indeed pretty common for losing campaigns.
However the “Trump factor” kinda upends the norm (as he tends to do) in that he’s always gotten big crowds from the getgo.
But if large crowds = large vote is a whole ‘nother question, of course.
Not to be a downer but this is the only poll I've seen lately that has her closer to 40% than 50%.
We won't even discuss Trump's ceiling in the polls so far.
I remember everyone saying Trump had a ceiling in the primaries. The discussion was ceiling,ceiling,ceiling. The polls over the last few weeks were bs for Hillary.
Prior to the dem convention she was dropping closer to 40 than 50.
As an incumbent proxy these numbers means Hillary is in very big trouble.
Trump is only getting started. Gingrich on Hannity yesterday said that is Trump follows a certain formula he can win by 65-66%.
I have a feeling Trump is working behind the scenes to drop a bombshell on the witch and the witch knows it which is why she has been going on auto-pilot lately, and I think it has to do with the Clinton foundation. Trump got NY bulldog US attorney of S. New York Preet Bharara to look into it. That guy is going to eat her alive if he finds evidence of wrong doing. He won convictions against Sheldon Silver who was once the most powerful politician in New York, thought to be untouchable, and a conviction against Dean Skelos and his son. She is in deep doo doo and I get he feeling an indictment will be announced right before the election.
I have not read this thread, so I don’t really know what the conversation is about. Having said that, is anyone talking about the voter fraud and poll watchers and how we won’t be able to stop it? Fox news said this morning that Hillary is “camped out” in Pennsylvania mainly Philadelphia. We all know what that means.
Someone else may know more than I do about this, but two of the people who recently died (since January) who were somehow associated with Clayton and allegedly were experts in wireless voting by satellite.
Clinton, not Clayton
About Trump, Scott Pelley just said on the national See BS Evening “News” that nobody has been as far behind in the polls as Trump and won the presidency.
Doctored polls? And what about Ronald Reagan in 1980, and George H. W. Bush in 1988? The polls had them supposedly trailing Jimmy Carter and Michael Dukakis in 1980 and 1988 by huge numbers, yet both Reagan and Bush the elder went on to win sizeable victories.
Try Harry Truman down 9-20 points in September!!!
Zogby is no different from any other mid-sized polling firm with national presence ... they do robo, live, net, text, focus -- all of it. For example, NBC/SurveyMonkey has also been utilizing online surveys that get splattered all over NBC and MSNBC...and here!
In other words, if you don't like online surveys: you don't understand it, or you're stupid. Flip a coin (50%-50% MoE +/-0).
And now, on to the internals:
"In a new Zogby Analytics online poll conducted August 12-13, +/-2.8% MOE, we asked 1,277 likely voters who they would vote for if the election for President were being held today. Since our Last poll in early July, Clinton still maintains a small 2% lead over Trump. It seems the convention bumps are behind us and we are back to a close race!"
Now kids, I would like to point out that substantial kind of LV sample is pretty close to the Holy Grail. Not unlike a robo LV 1402 +/-2.6 MoE I referenced just a few days ago...
"The latest Monmouth University Poll of voters nationwide shows Mitt Romney holding on to a three point lead over Barack Obama in next month’s presidential race. The GOP challenger continued to make gains in every issue area after the second debate. Currently, Gov. Romney leads the incumbent by 48% to 45% among likely American voters...The latest Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone with 1,402 likely voters in the United States from October 18 to 21, 2012. This sample has a margin of error of + 2.6 percent."
The negatives, whether manufactured or not, could easily be countered by his own media campaign - that’s the way to go around the press filter, and to provide a competing message to Hillary’s own media campaign. Thus far, he is allowing the press and Hillary to control this message without any attempt to compete with it. Wheel of Fortune, Jeopardy, the Olympics, etc. are not going to interview him or show clips of his rallies. Hillary is running ads during the Olympics nationwide - uncontested. She has a monopoly. Same with the battleground states during all of that other popular programming. He needs to get his own message into people’s home to compete with Hillary, and at the same time reinforce her own negatives with these same people (or share them with many of those same people for the very first time). Failing to neutralize what is your opponents only advantage is not doing an outstanding job...you should never willfully give your opponent that kind of an advantage. I believe if he were running a sustained media campaign, starting with biographical ads featuring his family talking about what a great father he is, etc. he would increase his own positive ranking, coupled with ads touting his national security message on limiting immigration for dangerous parts of the world, highlighting the problems with the border with regard to human trafficking, drug cartels, violent gangs, etc. (something the news conveniently leave out of the analysis) and why this needs to be fixed, and running ads highlighting Hillary’s dishonesty with regard to her numerous scandals and he would run away with it. Maybe he’s planning to just deluge the airwaves unannounced and without warning with something we’ve never seen before, but it would have been highly effective to have done so before the airwaves became overly saturated with other ads for other campaigns, and also to not allow Hillary to have had a monopoly for months on end. In addition to other ads from Hillary promoting her as some wonderful leader (cough), I have also seen this ad run numerous times during the Olympics: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6dtk1eX7UBE - do you think it is a good idea to have something like that being seen over and over again without your own competing message? It’s very sad that a huge number of voters get much of their “information” from ads vs. educating themselves, but the fact remains that there is a huge number of people that do. Hence, why running a strong and effective “living room campaign” is so important.
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