Posted on 08/07/2016 7:54:45 AM PDT by CaptainK
Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton's lead over Republican rival Donald Trump narrowed to less than 3 percentage points, according to a Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll released on Friday, down from nearly eight points on Monday.
About 42 percent of likely voters favored Clinton, to Trump's 39 percent, according to the July 31-Aug. 4 online poll of 1,154 likely voters. The poll had a credibility interval of plus or minus 3 percentage points, meaning that the results suggest the race is roughly even.
(Excerpt) Read more at reuters.com ...
Can’t wait to see longroom’s adjustment of this. Haven’t seen a USC poll today.
It’s going to take the faith and determination of a mustard seed to get through this. Resolute, strong in ones’ faith and voting will out the results.
In my estimation, it will be a loss for Clinton the likes even she couldn’t have foreseen./
How about removing Hillary’s +20 point handicap ?
Today’s USC tracking poll has her up 44.7% to Trump @ 44.0%.
She gained 2 tenths and he lost one.
Glenn Beck and his nimrods will not be happy. They were giddy on Friday because Hillary was ahead by 10 points and it was all over for Trump. Unfortunately I have to hear that nutjob in the background because my wife listens to him.
One of the smaller polls says Trump 67%, Hillary 19%, Undecided 13%. Sample size was 50,000 people.
http://tomohalloran.com/2016/08/05/lying-media-polls/
Still Report #1097 Trump Tromps Clinton in Social Media Support
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5pXLGdVlxqk
Let’s go to the data – Facebook Likes:
Trump: 10,174,358 – 65.4%
Clinton: 5,385,959 – 34.6%
Facebook live stream posts (latest):
Trump: 135,000 likes, 18,167 shares, 1,500,000 views = 1,653,167 total = 83.0%
Clinton: 11,000 likes, 0 shares, 321,000 views = 332,000 total = 17.0%
Twitter :
Trump: 10.6 million followers = 56.7%
Clinton: 8.1 million followers = 43.3%
Youtube Live Stream (averages):
Trump: 30,000 live viewers per stream = 98.4%
Clinton: 500 live viewers per stream = 1.6%
Instagram:
Trump: 2.2 million followers = 55.0%
Clinton: 1.8 million followers = 45.0%
Reddit subscribers:
Trump: 197,696 = 71.3%
Clinton: 24,429 = 8.8%
Hillary for Prison: 55,228 = 19.9%
Still Report #1096 - How Clinton Rigs the Polls
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XLf63B1R5aY
“According to an Aug. 2 interview in “Real. True. News.”, an unnamed source at 538 says that despite the brave front Hillary Clinton continues to display to the public, Democrats are in an absolute panic because Donald Trump has taken a commanding lead in nearly all demographic groups.”
When the RTN reporter questioned the conspiratorial nature of that concept, the 538 insider said:
“Sure—what? You think it’s . . . random? Come on. Who do you think pays for the polls? People who want results.
“You’re buying media. It’s like ads or . . . I don’t know. Like newspaper stories? You pay 30k for a poll of Florida, it says what you want.”
Then, 538 guy commented on the difficulty Poll Control had in dealing with the rising tide of Trump support:
“This time … Trump just caught us by surprise. The impact was so big – it came on so fast – Hillary just collapsed.”
“There were a few hours when the server was showing real projections and while traffic was pretty high, let me tell you, it was a melt-down politically.”
Still Report #1095 - Daybreak Poll Trump Turns it Around
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v5NZlEBjNbQ
First of all, although I have seen no formal figures – though I’m sure some must exist – Trump’s in-person crowds are crushing Clinton’s by a factor of between 10 to 1 – to 100 to 1.
This is not what they are saying on FAUX Snooze this morning. I could only watch for about 20 minutes before I had to turn it off. Clintoon’s lead has doubled since the convention and she’s cleaning Trump’s clock with the “gold star” shyster lawyer, Muzzie guy’s help. I wish other gold star families were treated by the “democrats” the way this Muzzie guy is being treated. He’s a real ‘RAT Rock Star. It appears to me that the lefties trashed Patricia Smith because she WASN’T a Muzzie.
Reuters Baffled As Clinton’s Lead Over Trump Suddenly Evaporates
Time Magazine Image, Reuters Graphics, RealClearPolitics on zero hedge ^ | 6AUG16 | Reuters, RealClearPolitics copied by Tyler Durden
Posted on 8/6/2016, 10:33:44 PM by vannrox
Reuters Baffled As Clinton’s Lead Over Trump Suddenly Evaporates
Tyler Durden’s picture
by Tyler Durden
Aug 6, 2016 2:55 PM
0
SHARES
We’re gonna need another polling methodology ‘tweak’...
Having seen her poll numbers suddenly explode higher (and Trump’s collapse) following Reuters’ decision to tweak its polling methodology, it appears we just witnessed ‘Peak Hillary’ as Reuters reports Clinton’s lead over Trump has tumbled back to just 3 points (the poll had a credibility interval of plus or minus 3 percentage points) meaning, as Reuters is forced to admit, that the results suggest the race is roughly even...
Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton’s lead over Republican rival Donald Trump narrowed to less than 3 percentage points, according to a Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll released on Friday, down from nearly eight points on Monday.
About 42 percent of likely voters favored Clinton, to Trump’s 39 percent, according to the July 31-Aug. 4 online poll of 1,154 likely voters. The poll had a credibility interval of plus or minus 3 percentage points, meaning that the results suggest the race is roughly even. Among registered voters over the same period, Clinton held a lead of five percentage points, down from eight percentage points on Monday, according to the poll.
Reuters tweaked data shows Hillary’s lead has peaked...
Reuters subtly points out the folly of their survey respondents...
Clinton had pulled well ahead of Trump on the heels of the Democratic National Convention last week, where she became the first woman to accept the U.S. presidential nomination from a major political party.
Since then, Trump has engaged in a days-long feud with the family of an American soldier killed in Iraq and squabbled with the Republican leadership over his comments and leadership turmoil within his campaign.
But as RealClearPolitics’ aggregated data shows, the swings are dramatic to say the least...
The noise in these polling numbers is incredible and prompted MishTalk’s Mike Shedlock to take a caustic look at the prognostications of the web’s forecasters... Peter Atwater, President of Financial Insyghts and Author of Moods and Markets asked an interesting question today: “Have we reached peak Hillary yet?”
In Atwater’s tweet, he posted a flashback to this January 2014 Time Magazine cover.
Time Hillary
The answer to the question “Can anyone stop Hillary?” is pretty obvious: Yes, Trump can easily win if he can ever learn to control his mouth (a recession hits or some dirt that matters comes out on Hillary that matters).
Ridiculous Forecasts
I watch with amusement as Nate Silver posts his ridiculous forecasts on the Presidential Election Odds.
Silver Odds 2016-08-04
Rest assured, Hillary does not have a 79% chance of winning.
Silver Odds 2016-08-04A
Pure Idiocy
Supposedly, Hillary has a 79.9% chance of winning in November as of today.
Supposedly, Trump had a 50.1% chance of winning in November on July 31, just four days ago!
Supposedly, Hillary had a 77.4% chance of winning in November on July 12.
This is pure idiocy.
Silver is clearly taking the news of the day and projecting it out to November when voters clearly have a time span of about three days.
How Silver can look himself in a mirror and make such widely varying off the wall predictions is a mystery.
Social Mood
Atwater had a second tweet today that is quite interesting...
It says a lot about current social mood when a modest rise in people’s level of happiness can upend a candidate. pic.twitter.com/Us4EFpYV3I
— Peter Atwater (@Peter_Atwater) August 4, 2016
Social Mood is clearly in control here.
Silver is totally clueless about what social mood will be in November, just as he was totally clueless about social mood the entire Republican nomination process.
* * *
We leave it to Reuters themselves to conclude with their thoughts on the drop in Hillary’s support and revival of Trump...
The reasons behind the shift were unclear.
Unclear indeed.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/3457261/posts
Mainstream media is going to be on suicide watch when their fake polls don’t work as intended and Trump beats Hillary in a landslide. I may reluctantly vote for Trump just to help send the MSM a message.
ONE sure poll: November 8, 2016
One other lesson learned from the last two general elections...the realclearpolitics average is basically useless until it consists of all likely voter polls. Then it is a roughly useful indicator of who's ahead. But the actual percentage is only useful for looking at momentum over a period of days. Which frankly, is about all polls are really worth anyway, since the variables used to create them are inconsistent from one polling outfit to another. And Rueters has already proven this election that you can't even assume the polls of an individual polling firm are useful for trend analysis because they feel free to shift their polling strategy based on their desired outcome.
Why is Hillary still in the race? Should she win, G-f, the fact that she did means she trashed the Constitution...like Obama, she will do anything she wants. A very dangerous and treacherous situation....
http://freedomoutpost.com/dnc-insider-clinton-being-pounded-in-polls-dont-believe-mainstream-media/
We spoke to a source who works at Nate Silver’s political advocacy group fivethirtyeight.com.
RealTrueNews: “Is it fair to say that Silver is worried?”
538 Source: “In a panic. Our business model is predicated on making liberals feel better about the election. Right now? It’s a disaster.”
RTN: “So what are you doing?”
538: “Well, we’re changing the model for starters. There were a few hours when the server was showing the real projections and while traffic was pretty high, let me tell you, it was a melt-down politically.”
RTN: “What do you mean?”
538: “Well, Nate’s a liberal. No secret there. When he saw what was happening he flipped out. Had us look for bugs–something gone wrong–looking at the feeds. Of course nothing was wrong. Nothing had changed. Then he got on the phone with his people embedded with Q-Pac and Survey Monkey and PPP and all those guys–”
RTN:”Wait–embedded?”
538: “Huh? Oh, yeah–it’s a big social club. The pollsters all work together. We have a Slack-room that’s sharing all kinds of results and skews and all that. That’s how we keep it all orderly.”
RTN: “Orderly?”
538: “Sure–what? You think it’s . . . random? Come on. Who do you think pays for the polls? People who want results. You’re buying media. It’s like ads or . . . I don’t know. Like newspaper stories? You pay 30k for a poll of Florida, it says what you want.”
RTN: “But what about on election day?”
538: “Oh–we drive it. You set the expectations ahead of time. It’s called pre-loading. You’d be surprised how we can fine-tune things. Mass belief is powerful. The problem here is (a) not everyone plays nice. Fox is rogue. Rasmussen was . . . bad. They were doing real polling. Also, there’s like a game of chicken. At the start of the cycle we do real polling so that everyone knows how they better buy in. This time . . . Trump just caught us by surprise. The impact was so big–it came on so fast–Hillary just collapsed.”
RTN:”What–what happens next?”
538: “I don’t know, man. There are a bunch of smaller groups out there doing real polls. I don’t know if anyone can keep this under wraps. They had to talk Silver off the edge of the building yesterday. It was bad.”
RTN: “He was literally going to throw himself out a window?”
538: “Yeah–he was–well, but we’re on the second floor. He was just really pissed. I mean, he got a call from the White House telling him to fix it and shit.”
RTN: “Wow.”
538: “Wow is right.”
What is the longroom adjustment, though? It was right in 2012.
www.longroom.com had Trump up in the adjusted USC poll, but I don’t know if they have updated.
They were absolutely dead on, Obama +3.8, in 2012.
Life is good...
If her health, mental and physical, has deteriorated as much as it recently appears, that really puts us over the top.
These liberal polls are liberal BS. Trump way ahead.
She looks awful...
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