Posted on 08/07/2016 7:08:05 AM PDT by expat_panama
Economy: The July jobs report was a good one, and the unemployment rate held steady at 4.9%, which in the past would have been sure signs of a robust economy. So why is the country in such a bad mood?
An unemployment rate below 5% is a relatively rare thing. Only twice before in the past 40 years has it dropped that low -- once in the late 1990s during that economic boom, and again briefly in 2006-2007.
Yet unlike before, there is little joy in Mudville today. Instead of confidence and optimism, there is only malaise.
Back in 1997, for example, the Consumer Confidence Index was up to 130. By the end of 1998, it topped 140. (The base year used for the index is "Morning in America" 1984, when it stood at 100.)
In 2006, when the unemployment rate again dropped below 5%, the Confidence Index was in the 110 range...
...the official unemployment number has grown increasingly useless as a reliable economic indicator, for the simple reason that millions of people have simply quit looking for a job. Since the unemployment rate is based only on those who are actively looking for work, the more people who drop out of the labor force, the lower the unemployment rate becomes.
Up until 2010 that didn't matter much, since the "labor force participation rate" was relatively steady. But during the Obama "recovery...
The Bureau of Labor Statistics, recognizing the weakness...
In July, the U-6 rate was 9.7%, which is far higher than it was the last two times the official rate dipped below 5%.
Put simply, it's time for the government to come up with a new jobless measure that more accurately depicts what's really going on in the job market today.
(Excerpt) Read more at investors.com ...
This chart shows the official unemployment rate and what it would be if the labor force participation rate had held steady at 66.5% — which is the average participation rate from the late ’80s to late ’00s. The two unemployment measures tracked very closely, until the Obama “recovery.”
The numbers they're talking about are pretty straight forward, here's an excel plot of the bls.gov numbers they're talking about:
It’s because they be lying and have been for decades!
The problem is IBD like other rags have promoted this lie to aid proping up our socialist government rulers.
They have always like the lap dogs the media is reported these fake numbers like good little socialists.
“Lying” would mean that the left knows/understands reality and is intentionally making false statements to deceive. I honestly don’t think most on the left are lying —because they’re just not smart enough. —mho...
They don't need a *new* jobless measure, they need to stick with the formula they used in the past. The government keeps gaming the unemployment and inflation figures to the point where the values they print are meaningless.
Wait a sec, this article is from the IBD. You're saying that they IBD is lying and that the 'true' unemployment rate is really 4.8%?
people receiving a real paycheck.
people receiving ssi who are at their retirement age
people on ssi/disability who are not at their retirement t age
people on welfare
measure all that against the labor force.
There's been no change in the unemployment rate number. That's the problem.
Number of eligible people who could work, without a job/Number of total amount of people who could work X 100 = true unemployment rate.
Currently, those not working and not registered as looking are not counted, so the fractional number as expressed is smaller.
Number of people able to work divided by number of people actually working (full, part time, seasonal) equals actual unemployment rate. Was about 37% recently. Depression rate about 26%.
Those numbers are all public record, you’re sure welcome to post them if you want.
And while we are at it, compare two other stats: “labor force participation rate” and “percentage of home ownership”. The real unemployment rate increase or decrease will probably be inverse to those 2 calculations as well. It would provide a basic sniff-test to the value of the results presented.
I am all for dumping the “unemployment” rate. Instead, it should be the “Employment Rate”, the number of people employed and the percent of those over 18 employed.
Yes, but the news media want ONE number that they can announce and talk about. They stupidly think that ONE number can summarize a complex reality.
The public accepts whatever the media tells them to.
Make that half he public, and that number's falling, it used to be most.
The IBD is one of most conservative paper out there and they have been critical of Obama and his policies since day one.
AND time to bring back Jimmy Carter’s “MISERY INDEX”.
If nobody you know is out of work it is a great economy.
If your neighbor or family member is out of work it is a recession.
If you are out of work it is a recession.
I have several family members who have been unable to find work for many years. Almost everyone I work with has family members who have been looking for many years. These people are not on unemployment comp. They are being supported by family members. They are not counted.
I very much appreciate your daily market economy updates.
Regarding “the” unemployment rate we’re fed by the Labor dept and media mouthpiece -
It’s really 20+%
In addition, the inflation rate is the other important economic govt stat that we’re lied to about.
It’s really 7+%
Williams explains it quite clearly on his gov’t economic analysis website:
http://www.shadowstats.com/
As some may recall, the gov’t has changed the way they measure and report the unemployment and inflation rate, numerous times since the mid-1980’s.
Democrats and Republicans were in favor of this devious change because it permitted them to look good while they taxed and spent us into oblivion, ie: just look at our lethal 20 Trillion dollar Nat’l debt.
I welcome Anyone to dispute the fact that unemployment and inflation is Much higher than what the dumbed down media and deceptive gov’t officially reports!
I think you meant:
If you are out of work it is a Depression.
I think that saying derived from a quote during the Eisenhower presidency.
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