Skip to comments.Global Deflation Alert: World Trade Growth Has Ground To A Halt
Posted on 08/02/2016 12:22:43 PM PDT by Lorianne
Falling rates of global trade growth have attracted much comment by analysts and officials, giving rise to a literature on the global trade slowdown (Hoekman 2015, Constantinescu et al. 2016). The term slowdown gives the impression of world trade losing momentum, but growing nonetheless. The sense of the global pie getting larger has the soothing implication that one nations export gains dont come at the expense of anothers. But are we right to be so sanguine?
World trade volume plateaued around January 2015
Using what is widely regarded as the best available data on global trade dynamics, namely, theWorld Trade Monitor prepared by the Netherlands Bureau of Economic Policy Analysis, the 19th Report of the Global Trade Alert, published today, evaluates global trade dynamics (Evenett and Fritz 2016). Our first finding that the rosy impression painted by some should be set aside. We demonstrate that:
-World export volumes reached a plateau at the start of January 2015. The same finding holds if import volume or total volume data are used instead.
(Excerpt) Read more at davidstockmanscontracorner.com ...
L O L
You mean Free Trade isn’t perfection after all?
Housing, medical care, college and many other things are too costly.
For the last 7½ years we have been promised that that deflation is coming but it never gets here and prices keep going up and up.
Like oil for instance. Or copper.
My house is of finite size and I can’t afford a bigger one.
I just can’t continuously stuff things into it at an ever faster rate.
The plan is for most of the world to be in poverty. That is how they want it. Only they will have wealth. Healthcare, armed guards.
they want us to look like the streets of Rio does now. Cuba too. Re-distribution of wealth. To them and their pals.
The things that are deflating are the durable goods you buy every three or four years. But if you buy insurance, education food and a house you’re screwed.
Persistent high inflation combined with high unemployment and stagnant demand in a country's economy.
Origin: 1960s; blend of stagnation (see stagnate) and inflation.
How much of the loss in global trade comes from the US relying more on domestic energy production?
Like steaks, for instance.
And hot dogs, dairy products and almost every other item in the grocery store.
And yes, gasoline at the pump is still higher than it was when Obama was elected.
I don't know about copper, but silver and gold are also higher - much higher.
Same here, but the perpetual ‘growth’ people, and they are legion, will never get this.
I am all for free trade, but we haven't really ever had true free trade. Other nations constantly play games with protectionist measures or with currency manipulation to make their goods relatively cheaper, and our response is always to cry that we can't impose tariffs or get tough with them in other ways, because that would cause a trade war. This is what Trump is getting at. Contrary to the critics who try to put words in his mouth, he's not proposing that we just cut ourselves off from the rest of the world. He's just saying that we have to use common sense and stand up for our interests first.
I view our situation in terms of supply and demand, and competition. Sure, our labor is expensive relative to much of the rest of the world (due partially to self-imposed overhead related to excessive regulation), but that is only half of the equation. We also are a huge market for consumption of goods from all over the world. As Trump rightly points out, we have "stupidly" been allowing other countries to take our jobs (which in many cases are now being performed by virtual slaves), while simultaneously permitting those countries to sell the resulting goods back to us virtually unrestricted. That's idiotic. The proper response to companies that try to play this game is to slap steep tariffs on their U.S. imports, unless they agree to bring their manufacturing operations back to the U.S. We have to realize that our consumer market is a product that we have to sell, just as much as our labor is. We shouldn't be selling access to that market cheaply, because it is most certainly in high demand, and therefore should carry a high price.
We are in an extremely strong negotiating position when it comes to trade, and I think Trump gets that. For one thing, our agricultural industry is second to none. We feed much of the world. Yet we don't use that leverage to obtain better terms for ourselves. Trade war? I don't think so....I can easily do without a cheap plastic lawn chair or even a new iPhone, but can they do without food?
Buy a boat. Pay for moorage. Pour money in.
Agreed. Coincidentally, I spent some time over the weekend comparing the rising costs of those items (housing, medical care, etc.) and compared them to my income for the past 5 years. I realized things were worse than I had imagined.
Not good. Not good at all. Very depressing.
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