Posted on 07/13/2016 3:11:59 PM PDT by Zakeet
One glimpse at the massive variance between the last two days polls in swing states suggests something very odd is going on.
Or graphically...
[Pennsylvania white voters: Trump, 40% Clinton, 40% Pennsylvania black voters: Trump, 0% Clinton, 91%; Ohio white voters: Trump, 43% Clinton, 33% Ohio black voters: Trump, 0% Clinton, 88% -- WSJ/NBC/Marist poll]
Simply put, as The Daily Bell notes, given the post-Email-gate disapproval ratings...
A majority of Americans disapprove of the FBI’s recommendation not to charge Hillary Clinton with a crime over her handling of email while secretary of state, and a similar number in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll say the issue leaves them worried about how she would handle her responsibilities as president if elected.Most also say the email controversy won't affect their vote in the presidential election. But 28 percent say it leaves them less likely to support her, versus 10 percent who say it makes them more likely to do so. -ABC Poll
Pro-Hillary Clinton polls don't make sense.
In fact, polling with such tiny samples doesn’t make sense anyway, but coming on the heels of other questionable polls favoring Hillary, this widely quoted poll only seems to raise further questions.
(Excerpt) Read more at zerohedge.com ...
I think we can all agree that the polls clearly show that the Witch needs to keep on campaigning with the Royal Idiot!
At the rate they’re going Reuters might have Hillary up by 30 next week
Rigged Polls help to cover Rigged Elections.
swirling down the toilet......
spin hillary spin...
realize where you are going
...
FNC has her up in Colorado and Virginia
Fox as I recall was probably the worst during the primaries. Just horrible.
This article raises serious questions. For ex., in the Q poll Trump gets 15% black vote in OH. (Bush got 11% nationally in 04, but I can’t find any state % for OH-—Minion and McClame got 6 and 4, so Trump is quadrupling McLame’s number and almost tripling Romney’s. Yet Marist has him at ZERO?? In both OH and PA, zero? Come on.
I think she’s up a couple in each. Not more than a couple.
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"The NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll tracks voter preferences and attitudes on a weekly basis throughout the 2016 election cycle.
Results are released every Tuesday at 6:00AM and are among registered voters.
Results for the week of July 4, 2016 through July 10, 2016 are among a national sample of 7,869 registered voters (+/- 1.4%), 2,059 registered Republican voters (+/-2.8%) and 2,634 registered Democratic voters (+/-2.5%). Complete error estimates can be found in the methodology section below"
...
Election Tracking poll. Because the sample is based on those who initially self-selected for participation rather than a probability sample, no estimates of sampling error can be calculated.
All surveys may be subject to multiple sources of error, including, but not limited to sampling error, coverage error, and measurement error.
To assess the variability in the estimates and account for design effects, we create a bootstrap confidence interval to produce an error estimate. [We?]
The bootstrap confidence interval for this survey is plus or minus 1.4 percentage point for registered voters.
To calculate the bootstrap confidence interval we use the weighted data to generate 5000 independent samples and calculate the 95% confidence intervals for the weighted average. When analyzing the survey results and their accuracy, this error estimate should be taken into consideration in much the same way that analysis of probability polls takes into account the margin of sampling error."
- - - - -
Overall unweighted metrics...
Indie/Other 40.03% 3176
Dem 33.47% 2634
Rep 26.16% 2059
It is not unusual for state level polls with their smaller samples to show variance. Besides, its too early to put much stock in any poll.
For the record, the 538 Blog’s rating of polling accuracy gives Quinnipiac an A-, Monmouth gets an A+ and NBC/WSJ gets an A-.
For the record, sucky liberal the gnat Silver and 538, 100% wrong about Trump.
“7 Times Nate Silver Was Hilariously Wrong About Donald Trump”
http://dailycaller.com/2016/05/04/7-times-nate-silver-was-hilariously-wrong-about-donald-trump/
I recall Jimmah Cahtah was 20 points up on the Gipper a few months before the election.
That’s true but Silver called 50 states correctly out of 50 in 2012 and 49 out of 50 in 2008. General election predictions are alot different from those in primary elections and determining polling accuracy by comparing poll results to actual election outcomes is different from making predictions.
Besides, nobody’s perfect.
NBC polls are absolute garbage. Remember them back in the primaries. They were way off.
Lib Silver is overrated and overblown.
Internet polling, like many TV broadcast and cable channels do, is USELESS! ...The polling that actually uses the phones to call people is USELESS, because many of us only have land lines and either don’t answer the rings or respond to the polls.
Too many of the polls are using sample sizes that are not statistically representative of the likely voters in the country, but the stupid news media report the data as though it represents everyone in the country.
Don’t rely on or believe the polling being reported.
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