The Economist/YouGov Poll (Clinton 42% Trump 37%, Other 11%)

YouGov pdf link ^ | July 6, 2016

[Red Steel]

Sample 1300 General Population Respondents
Conducted July 2 - 4, 2016
Margin of Error +- 3.9%

5. If the 2016 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, Donald Trump, the Republican, Gary Johson, the Libertarian, and Jill Stein, from the Green Party, who would you vote for? Registered voters only.

Hillary Clinton . . . . . .42%
Donald Trump . . . . . . .37%
Gary Johnson . . . . . . . 4%
Jill Stein . . . . . . . . . .3%
Someone else . . . . . . . 4%

Which candidate do you prefer more, Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump? Asked of registered voters who would vote for Gary Johnson, Jill Stein, or ’someone else’

Hillary Clinton . . . . . .28%
Donald Trump . . . . . . .27%
No preference . . . . . . .45%

[Red Steel]

Some of the the metrics used for this poll are

34% Dem
39% Indie
24% Rep
2% Other

Aggregated total is 49% of strong Dems to lean Dems, and 22% describe themselves as "strong Dems".

For Repubs it's 34% aggregated while only 13% say they are "Strong Republican".

29% polled say they are not "Registered" (24%) or "Don't Know" (5%).

Female 51%
Male 49%

It doesn't look good for Hillary. If we adjust the metrics here to what we will actually see in November Trump wins, and likely easily. The Female v. Male voter ratio is about right but not much else.

[Cowboy Bob]

“Others” will not get 11% of the vote in November.

[ZULU]

“YouGov is an international internet-based market research firm, headquartered in the UK, with operations in Europe, North America, the Middle East and Asia-Pacific.[2]

YouGov was founded in the UK in May 2000 by Stephan Shakespeare and Nadhim Zahawi. In April 2005, YouGov became a public company listed on the Alternative Investment Market of the London Stock Exchange.[3]

Stephan Shakespeare has been YouGov’s Chief Executive Officer since 2010.[4] Roger Parry has been YouGov’s Chairman since 2007. [5] Political commentator Peter Kellner was YouGov’s President until he stepped down in 2016. [6]

YouGov is a member of the British Polling Council.”

From Wikipedia. In other words, RUN BY THE GOLBALISTS Trump hates and who hate Trump! He MUST be ahead.

[SamAdams76]

If the primaries were any indication, the Republican base will come out in very strong numbers. The upcoming convention should reel in most of the #nevertrump crowd (speaker list to be revealed tomorrow).

Consider that in 2012, Johnson (Libertarian) received 0.97% of the vote and Jill Stein (Green) received 0.34% of the vote. I don't see them improving much on that this go-around despite what they are polling today. That 11% for "Other" is going to eventually break either for Trump or the Democrats. I think Trump will get the lion's share as many people are still either intimidated or afraid to say they are supporting Trump.

[Red Steel]

Yeah it’s a massively skewed poll.

[sportutegrl]

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/07/final-analysis-gop-primary-turnout-62-year-dem-primary-turnout-21-year/

GOP Primary Turnout is up 62%, while Dem Primary Turnout is down 21%. I doubt that the voters in November will be 34/24 Dem/Rep.

[LongWayHome]

Yup...that 34/24 R&D spread in voting is “the tell” that this poll is nonsense.

[Mjreagan]

Rampant fraud will fix that for PIAPS

[Grams A]

I regularly do YouGov polls and did two during this period of time. Neither one covered politics and it is rare that I ever get asked any questions related to politics. Wonder how many of their other participants that are Very Conservative never have an opportunity to vote.

[Gulf War One]

General Population Respondents? Gimme a break! That’s not even “registered voters”.

Given the metrics, that poll indicates it will be Trump, and not close either.

[cpdiii]

Sample 1300 General Population Respondents

This poll is garbage. The purpose of the poll was to reach a predetermined conclusion.

[LS]

I agree. The hoops they are having to jump through to keep Cankles in the lead are getting more and more preposterous.

[Red Steel]

Right. I expect Trump to get around, match, or even exceed W Bush’s 2004 percentage turnout of 37% Republican, that equaled the 37% Dem percentage for Kerry. Turnout the lights the Dem party is over when Trump does it.

[WMarshal]

Everyone should look at Gallup’s Party Affiliation over the years 2014 to June 2016. It states the following registration ratio: Rep 28% Ind 39% Dem 31%. That does not match the Economist/Yougov poll ratios of Rep 24% Ind 39% Other 2% Dem 34%

http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

They over-sampled Democrats by 3% and under-sampled Republicans by 4%. That adds up to a 7% bias against Trump.

[IllumiNaughtyByNature]

This crappy sample is hilarious to hide sh*t.

"General Population Respondents" is less accurate then even "Registered Voters" followed by "Likely to Vote" So they have to go all the way back to GPR to get a horse race sample, and they have to toss 11% to other.

This must f'ing suck for pollsters to have to put their name on cr@p like this. But, they all suck the same RAT teets.

[Red Steel]

Yep. 29% even say in this poll that they are not even registered to vote.

Although, it is listed as a “legit poll” and counted at Real Clear Politics.com. LoL.

[austinaero]

yes and still I can live with these numbers for now.

[DungeonMaster]

False polls are preparing the voters for the rigged election results that have nothing to do with the way people voted.

[Blue Jays]

"...as many people are still either intimidated or afraid to say they are supporting Trump..."

---

Exactly correct.

My sincere belief is Donald Trump is polling artificially low. He will enjoy far larger numbers once people are in the privacy of the polling booth.

Terrorists are not smart enough to curtail their attacks leading-up to the American election. Each of those global events makes people think carefully about the safety and security of their children, family, and friends.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and _resident Barack 0bama meanwhile continue to import so-called Syrian "refugees" at an unrelenting pace. There are undoubtedly lots of bad seeds in that bunch.

[2nd Amendment]

It doesn’t look good for Trump. . . Cleveland will win a major sports championship and Hillary will escape a major FBI indictment before Trump wins!