Corrected national polling data shows Trump in the lead

American Thinker ^ | 6/14/2016 | Sierra Rayne

[GilGil]

I’ll try to post the tweet but that’s almost verbatim what Plouffe said.
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Trump must be doing something right.

[GilGil]

Could you imagine if Trump (or any Republican, really) ever used the phrase “his kind” in a derogatory way?
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Democrats and Republicans as the uniparty have replaced the Klan.

[Sybeck1]

Trump needs to do his Crooked Hillary speech that was bumped Monday by the terrorist attack as soon as he can. People needs to know her past and dishonesty

[needmorePaine]

Then again Reagan was down 25 points against Carter early in the year of the election.

How did that work out?

Pretty well, but it doesn't follow that we'll see the same outcome. Different country and different electorate. That being said, I do think things look OK for Trump. The Mexican judge thing is forgotten already, and I do buy that he will get a decent percentage of Hispanics and blacks.

[GilGil]

Pretty well, but it doesn’t follow that we’ll see the same outcome.

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It also doesn’t mean we won’t see the same outcome!!!

[Kit cat]

Did you EVER SEE the turn out that Trump has at his events with Romney????.......NOT !!!! This election is NOT the NORMAL election cycle AMERICA wants to throw ALL the bums OUT!!!! Hillary WILL NOT WIN!!!

[M1903A1]

I follow “signal intel” from the libs around me (and I’m surrounded by them)...I’m getting a sense of unease from them like I’ve not observed before.

[SunkenCiv]

Former Senator and Secretary of State

Hillary Rodham Clinton

now appearing as

The Vagina Demagogue

[GOPJ]

Thanks for the ping.

[NYRepublican72]

D+7 was the Obama 2008 numbers.
D+6 was the Obama 2012 numbers.

The LV screen has really not been tightened at this point of the process with 5 months to go until election time and both parties not holding their conventions yet.

It will be shortly. If Hillary gets Obama D+6, D+7 turnout numbers, it’s over. If it ramps down to about D+2 or D+3, Trump has a good shot at winning.

[NYRepublican72]

The polls really rely on some base turnout assumptions - assumptions that include high democrat turnout, which has historically been accurate.

And those assumptions were correct last time. But will they be correct this time? I dunno. I do know that GOP primary turnout was setting records in several states, while the reverse was true for the democrats.

I think it really depends on the pollsters. Some make these assumptions about turnout and weight accordingly. Others let it flow freely. The difference between the two most recent Fox national polls was the sample of voters. (R+1 vs. D+6, I believe)

In any event, I am not concerned by this until the pollsters shift from RV to LV on the national scale. (The state polls are mainly LV, hence the pro-Trump tilt).

Obama's two general elections were D+7 (2008) and D+6 (2012).

Bush was Even (2004).

Most of the mid-terms are between D+2 and R+1.

[GOPJ]

...all fraud and deceit

Libeals are such liars... did you notice how the MSM ran with the lie?

[GilGil]

It will be shortly. If Hillary gets Obama D+6, D+7 turnout numbers, it’s over. If it ramps down to about D+2 or D+3, Trump has a good shot at winning.
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Trump in a landslide. You heard it here first. All this analysis only creates paralysis and no results!

[sargon]

This forum was full of posters predicting that the “polls” would “tighten” and that the polls “over-represented” democrats. How did that work out?

Voter enthusiasm was totally the opposite back then from what it is now. That's a fact.

Vote Trump!