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Shock Report on Jobs Signals Obama Economy Is on Brink of Recession
The New York Sun ^ | June 3, 2016 | Lawrence Kudlow

Posted on 06/04/2016 9:37:16 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

The May jobs report is a shocker, with nonfarm payrolls up only 38,000 and private jobs up a mere 25,000. Investors and economists are making the case that this was a weird, one-off, statistical glitch and that stronger employment is on the way. They might well be wrong.

If you smooth out the numbers with a three-month moving average, job increases have been slowing for five months. The three-month pace in December was 281,000 jobs. In the May report, the pace nosedived to 107,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.7%, largely because 458,000 people left the labor force.

This spells trouble for the economy. And if you step back and look at the whole business sector, a case can be made that the United States has been in a mild business recession for as much as a year, if not longer.

Take business fixed investment in equipment, software, plants, buildings, and so forth. This has been slowing for six straight quarters. It even went negative in the first quarter on a year-on-year basis.

Behind this business-investment slowdown, the broadest measure of profits from the GDP accounts, which closely tracks IRS profits, has been negative for the past three quarters measured year-on-year. This slump began in the second half of 2014, almost two years ago.

Profits are the mother’s milk of stocks and the lifeblood of the economy. While so many people obsess about the Federal Reserve, the reality is that stocks have been flat over the past year as profits and business investment have been weakening.

Meantime, core capital goods, including orders, shipments, and backlogs, have turned negative over the past three months and across the past year. This is a proxy for business investment, and it’s not a good omen....

(Excerpt) Read more at nysun.com ...


TOPICS: Government
KEYWORDS: economy; obama; recession
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1 posted on 06/04/2016 9:37:16 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

From the direction things have gone, this is no surprise.....


2 posted on 06/04/2016 9:41:22 PM PDT by JBW1949 (I'm really PC....PATRIOTICALLY CORRECT!!!!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Hope and change peeps.

The result of his policies going out don’t look as his promises going in.


3 posted on 06/04/2016 9:42:21 PM PDT by Beowulf9
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

And Obama’s minions will still support him and jump off a cliff if he told them to..notice the media hasn’t discussed the jobs report..if this had occurred on Bush’s watch there would be 24/7 coverage, instead its about a dead gorilla, Trump University, and a La Raza judge


4 posted on 06/04/2016 9:43:34 PM PDT by Sarah Barracuda
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Well, didn’t jug ears just finish telling everyone that our economy is SO much better off now that he’s been president?

If Obama wasn’t such an utter fool he would have kept his mouth shut about this crappy economy.


5 posted on 06/04/2016 9:49:25 PM PDT by Bullish (Face it, insanity is just not presidential.)
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To: JBW1949; Beowulf9
TRUTH:

These Are The 9 Zero Hedge Charts Showing "Obama's Recovery" That Angered The Washington Post


6 posted on 06/04/2016 9:50:27 PM PDT by Veracious Poet (May God Bless America (again)
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To: Veracious Poet

Those charts are damning to anyone who pays attention....


7 posted on 06/04/2016 9:53:49 PM PDT by JBW1949 (I'm really PC....PATRIOTICALLY CORRECT!!!!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

But but but,Odungo said,”it’s the best ever”...he wouldn’t lie would he?


8 posted on 06/04/2016 9:58:21 PM PDT by Doogle (( USAF.68-73..8th TFW Ubon Thailand..never store a threat you should have eliminated))
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
The Household survey has too few respondents and such poor methodology that it's essentially worthless. The ADP numbers are somewhat firmer, although ADP missed the current forecast by a mile (they predicted about 135K jobs, IIRC.)

ADP has been saying that job numbers are below the Household Survey for months, and sliding lower. Despite the generally rosy picture the BLS tries to paint, they have access to better numbers than they release, and it wouldn't be a surprise if they smell something very bad in the offing.

That would help explain why Grandma Nixon decided to run on her "foreign policy credentials," when she has none to speak of.

The degree of violence we see promoted by Democrats in the streets in June, July, and August will be in inverse proportion to the quality of the economy. Look for a long, hot summer, and not just against Trump supporters; come November they will almost certainly have no economic news they can run with. Once Crooked Hillary has to run on her actual achievements instead of just her well padded but empty resume they will have nothing to bang but the "racism" drum.

9 posted on 06/04/2016 9:59:23 PM PDT by FredZarguna (And what rough beast, its hour come round at last, slouches towards Fifth Avenue to be Born?)
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To: JBW1949

millions haven’t recovered from the last recession..this is going to be bad


10 posted on 06/04/2016 10:02:47 PM PDT by ground_fog
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To: Sarah Barracuda
if this had occurred on Bush’s watch there would be 24/7 coverage, instead its about a dead gorilla, Trump University, and a La Raza judge...

...how prince died, like who cares, snd Mohamed Ali died. That's news for one day. Several days in a row? Must be some really slow newsdays.

How about the news that affect the rest of our lives, and that of our children and grandchildren?

How about an unindicted sociopath thinking she is entitled to the presidency?
Or the sad sack who never held a job in his life until he was 45, and then got one on the taxpayer's teat?

11 posted on 06/04/2016 10:13:10 PM PDT by publius911 (IMPEACH HIM NOW evil, stupid, insane ignorant or just clueless, doesn't matter!)
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To: ground_fog
millions haven’t recovered from the last recession..this is going to be bad

Why is Barack Obama Warning Americans ‘To Be Prepared For A Disaster’?

12 posted on 06/04/2016 10:17:04 PM PDT by Veracious Poet (May God Bless America (again)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

The truth is America has been in a DEPRESSION for many years: Almost 95 MILLION Americans unemployed who want to ork, 50 MILLION Americans on food stamps, a genuine unemployment rate for between 25 to 40%! And the greatest tragedy of all is that it is ALL INTENTIONAL and part of Obamadungs “fundamental transformation of America”.


13 posted on 06/04/2016 10:22:04 PM PDT by Jmouse007 (Lord God Almighty, deliver us from this evil in the name of our Lord and Savior Jesus Christ, amen.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

And it is in perfect timing with the Fed cutting back on its “easing.”


14 posted on 06/04/2016 10:24:24 PM PDT by Bogie (Just a coincidence?)
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To: Bogie
And it is in perfect timing with the Fed cutting back on its "easing” PRINTING.

FIFY

15 posted on 06/04/2016 10:27:04 PM PDT by Veracious Poet (May God Bless America (again)
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To: FredZarguna

Well said.


16 posted on 06/04/2016 10:29:16 PM PDT by Bogie (Just a coincidence?)
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To: Veracious Poet

Alas, an economy of paper.


17 posted on 06/04/2016 10:32:57 PM PDT by Bogie (Just a coincidence?)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

“On the brink.”

My God. Such incredibly terrible liars.


18 posted on 06/04/2016 10:38:45 PM PDT by Secret Agent Man (Gone Galt; Not averse to Going Bronson.)
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To: Bogie

Just a thought...the stock market is currently very high. Not the time to buy. It may better to sell and go to cash...And wait for the crash...Then buy back in at a huge discount to current prices. 30 or 40%?! Just a thought.


19 posted on 06/04/2016 10:44:49 PM PDT by Trumpet 1 (US Constitution is my guide.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Just watched Cramer on CNBC say how confused he was with the jobs number. What conservatives have been saying for literally years now is you can't make full time work 30 hrs and Obamacare mandatory for all above 30 hrs and expect to grow 40 hr jobs. My work came straight out and told me ObamaCare was the reason my insurance rates went up. They figure if it's mandatory for me to have it, I can pay instead of them.

Then comes the $15 an hr people. Just figure you make hamburgers and the law raises the minimum wage to $15. It's not political, it's just common sense that the first thing the boss does is cut people and hours. Next will be robot to put secret sauce on your burger, just like the soft drink girl went bye bye with self service. And most don't even remember the guy that used to come gas you up, check your oil, and wipe the windows.

All you have to do to figure out economics is to imagine what you would do if you owned the business. Labor cuts are almost always number one. Fuel price goes up, cut workers. Price of meat skyrockets, fire somebody.

Don't forget the revisions DOWNWARDS( always), for April and May, and nearly 500k left the workforce....again, to give us a magical 4.7% unemployment. Real unemployment is closer to 9%+, but how do you prove that to Obama sycophants. Even coal miners have figured it out now.

20 posted on 06/05/2016 12:12:17 AM PDT by chuckles
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