Cleveland Hunger Games. First Two Victims? Trump and Cruz.

What's even more tragic than the hysteria of the #nevertrump crowd is how the establishment is using Ted Cruz and his supporters to stop Trump, with no intention of helping him win a single additional vote at the Republican convention in July.

The more I study this race and observe the power players, the more I'm convinced that we're in for multiple ballots resulting in John Kasich or some well-known Republican pirate who hijacks the convention winning the nomination.

Donald Trump has a very narrow path to obtaining the 1237 delegates needed to secure the nomination before the Cleveland convention in July. Trump may win all of the delegates in New York on April 19. Pennsylvania, on April 26, also appears to be very friendly. April 26 is Maryland, Delaware, Connecticut and Rhode Island. In the month of April, there are 213 delegates up for grabs. In early May (if the momentum continues) Trump could pick up as many as 40 to 50 delegates with a win in Indiana. If Trump later wins in California and New Jersey, as polls suggest, that could add as many as 175 delegates.

In order to secure the nomination before the convention, Trump would also have to win at least three of West Virginia, Nebraska, Washington, Montana, and South Dakota. Montana, South Dakota and Nebraska are very unlikely; I believe Cruz wins those three.

What does all this math mean? More than likely Trump enters the first round of the convention with between 1160 to 1200 delegates. This leaves him between 37-77 delegates short of the nomination.

But, all hope is not lost for Trump in this scenario. This scenario has happened twice before, and the party’s front-runner still secured the nomination in the first round of the convention. Gerald Ford (1976) and Democrat Walter Mondale (1984) won the first round of their conventions.

Roughly 200-400 delegates will be unbound or uncommitted in the first round of ballots. The closer Trump is to the 1237 majority, the more likely he is to be able to get some of those delegates to vote for him on the first ballot. While most of these un-bound delegates are going to be Republican Party elites highly populated by the #nevertrump crowd, he still has a clear path to victory in the first round by securing a minority of them. If he plays the game (others will play), these delegates will be staying at Mar-a-Lago, Trump Hotels and flying beyond first class on Trump’s 757 as they “discuss” the future of our country.

On top of the delegate “hunger games,” there will likely be massive demonstrations and protests outside Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland. Hundreds of thousands of Trump supporters are likely to converge, leaving a substantial message in their wake. Protests at the convention may sway the delegates by creating a situation where they choose a peacemaking measure favoring Trump. While this won't be a large number of delegates, it will only take a few to make a difference.

If I’m wrong, we’ll proceed to a second round of the contested convention. In this situation, approximately one-half of Trump’s original, bound delegates become un-bound. It is likely Trump and Cruz will be virtually tied in a second round ballot, leaving Kasich surging into a much stronger third place. It's at this point a fourth candidate could magically emerge. While this is less likely, it’s still very possible.

It appears Trump has true support of 30-35 percent of the delegates at the onset. For each new ballot, I believe Cruz's support will erode to a floor of 20 percent. This means that there will be a huge opening for a candidate like Kasich (or an unknown candidate) to build a consensus of the rapidly increasing number of uncommitted delegates. If Trump can't win in the first round and Cruz can't win in the second round, both of them will find their delegate support continuing to erode (mostly Trump’s) until the third or an unknown candidate is the nominee of the Republican Party.

Struggling to catch up in delegates and hoping to win at the convention, the Cruz camp and its supporters are being used as pawns by the establishment. Knowing that Cruz can't reach 1237 delegates prior to the convention, it is very safe for establishment leaders to support him solely for the sake of limiting Trump to a plurality and not a majority

The most important component of this election is to make certain we nominate an insurgent candidate like Cruz or Trump who will reshape the Republican Party and put pressure on Washington.

Most staunch #nevertrump people are far more concerned about Donald Trump's tone or which Democrat he supported a decade ago. We should be united in recognizing the unprecedented opportunity we have to purge the massive influence of big business, crooked politicians and bureaucrats from the Republican Party so we can lead the effort to heal the damage created by President Obama and/or block its continuation by Hillary Clinton.

The Republican Party's ‘house’ has a lot of deferred maintenance, outdated features and is generally not marketable in 2016. After all, it's been over 30 years since Ronald Reagan first renovated the Republican Party. It's time we do it again.

And, whether they like it or not, Trump and Cruz are already in the same boat, so they might as well start rowing. Otherwise, the big yacht of the Republican Party is on its way planning to sink both of them.

This is why to vote for Third Party: The biggest objection to voting for a Third Party is the “wasted vote” argument — the idea that if you vote for someone who will not win, then the vote does not count. Voting for a third party, contrary to popular belief, is not a wasted vote. It’s a chance to tell the country — and perhaps even the world — what your vision of government and society really is. But how do most of us vote? Most of us vote the “lesser of two evils” — a defensive vote, rather than an offensive one. So what happens after you vote the defensive vote? Well, then you have sold out your personal beliefs. You have become a political prostitute. You aren’t standing up for what you believe in by voting “the lesser of two evils.” I don’t know about you, but I’m tired of being a political hooker. If you think the Republican or the Democrat really does best mirror your beliefs, by all means, vote for that candidate. But if you don’t, and you still vote for them, you’re helping to preserve the status quo you probably despise. So What’s the Point of Voting? We vote to tell everyone else which choice best represents the direction which we want the country to go. When you vote, you gain a certain power that a non-voter doesn’t have; the power to change America. Hence voting lesser evil sends the wrong message; it’s sending a message of compromise. In effect, a defensive vote says “I will settle for a good America, not the best America possible.” I urge you not to settle. In other words, if you want change, then create change. The history of third parties in America is that they serve as the vanguard for new ideas. It is these ideas that make the world go round. If a Third Party begins to draw votes, one or both of the two big parties steal their ideas. The most successful third party in the 20th Century was the Socialist Party. While never winning any significant elections, their small but growing vote totals were a threat to the Democrats. Thus the Democrats, and then later the Republicans, adopted piecemeal every major tenet of the 1916 Socialist Party platform. So rather than waste your vote on Democrats or Republicans, cast a meaningful ballot that clearly says what you believe. ‪#‎VPA‬ ‪#‎VPPA‬ ‪#‎VPANEWENGLAND‬ ‪#‎VPofA‬ @VetsPA www.vpofa.org www.veteranspartyofamerica.org www.chriskeniston2016.com

Message is one thing. Actual President is another. The former gets ignored.

Only two candidates have any chance of winning. If you don’t vote for the one of those you’d rather have, you’re failing to neutralize someone else’s vote for the other. “All evil needs to succeed is for good men to do nothing.”

Nobody cares about your message.

Voting 3rd party is the ONLY American thing to do. These 2 CORRUPT political parties have a death grip around the throats of the voting public & have them brain washed to think that is is only their way, everything else is a wasted vote! The only wasted vote is one that is NOT used. As Donald Trump calls out the GOP for it's corrupt behavior, and the Bernie Sanders camp is fighting to take back the delegates that Clinton has purchased.........is there any wonder why America's Veterans have organized such a massive movement to restore our representative government? I hear people tell me all kinds of things, most of which they truly believe. Most of which, I just respond with kindness and let them know when they are ready for real change, we will be here, and we are a strength that most will not understand for a long time. We are Of the People, By the People, and For the People, a group of selfless servants that truly understand what an oath means. It is not about lip service and winning votes. It is about taking a stand for what is right, taking a stand for liberty and justice for all Americans. When you finally realize that the two parties are too cancerous and corrupt at the top to be saved. We will be here, ready to do what needs to be done. There is a ton of work and we are always looking for additional leaders that can provide workable and Constitutional solutions to the very real problems we face. This is about uniting the divided nation. This is about bringing government back to the People, where it belongs. When you are ready, just remember this. ‪#‎IAMSOMEONE‬ and so are you, together ‪#‎WEARETHESOLUTION‬ www.ChrisKeniston2016.com www.VeteransPartyofAmerica.org

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