Posted on 04/11/2016 9:32:26 PM PDT by AmericanInTokyo
CASPER – Study a map of presidential primary results and you’ll see Donald Trump dominating in the northeast. You’ll see him beating more established candidates in Arizona and Nevada and stunning pundits with dominance in the South.
But where you won’t see Trump winning big, or winning much at all, is in Wyoming, Utah and Idaho, three of the nation’s reddest states. There, the real estate mogul and famed reality star has struggled to connect with voters.
Trump is still the front-runner for the GOP nomination, but he has failed in the Northern Rockies. He lost to Sen. Ted Cruz in Idaho and Utah and has claimed only one delegate so far in Wyoming – the same number as U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, who has since dropped out. Cruz, in comparison, earned nine.
Several factors have contributed to Trump’s lack of success in the Northern Rockies, political observers say.
His top opponent, Cruz, has more often discussed issues that resonate with voters here – land issues, energy and gun rights.
Cruz also has made deeper inroads in the region. He has visited Wyoming once and will return Saturday. Trump has yet to visit.
And Trump’s brash style also may be hurting him, especially with Mormon voters who make up a sizable voting bloc.
Ground game Cruz got nine of the 12 delegates at the GOP county conventions in March and is expected to do well when the state’s final 14 are chosen Saturday at the Wyoming GOP Convention in Casper.
The Cruz campaign has been on the ground in here since October. But the Texas senator’s success in the Cowboy State is the result of more than his ground game, said Ed Buchanan, former state House speaker and chairman of Cruz’s Wyoming efforts.
“The positions that Trump has held over his entire career just don’t resonate with Wyoming voters,” Buchanan said. “I don’t think he shares the values and lifestyle of Western people. I don’t think he’s really in touch with what drives the economy out West – with agriculture, with natural resources, with energy production.”
Cruz, on the other hand, is from Texas, a state that has much in common with Wyoming, Buchanan said. And Cruz has been steadfast on the Second Amendment, which is important to Wyoming.
The senator first spoke in Wyoming, frequently treated as a flyover state for presidential elections, on Aug. 20 for a GOP fundraiser. When he returns for the state GOP convention, he will be the only major GOP candidate to make the trip.
The Trump campaign is sending Sarah Palin in his stead. And Idaho Gov. Butch Otter will speak to Republicans on behalf of Ohio Gov. John Kasich.
Libertarian streak Trump’s most intense support comes from white voters with lesser educations and lower incomes. In theory, that might help Trump with blue-collar voters – especially in parts of the state hammered by the energy downturn.
But Wyoming possesses more of a libertarian streak rather than Trump-style nationalism, said Matt Dallek, a professor in the Graduate School of Political Management at George Washington University.
“It is possible that Trump has continued to damage himself,” Dallek said. “There’s a sense that, look, we want a Republican, but it’s not necessarily Trump.”
In the Western and more conservative parts of the country, Dallek said, Trump may not be playing well to voters because of questions about his personal morality and whether he’s truly committed to limited government.
Also playing into Trump’s lack of popularity here are Mormon voters.
Nine percent of Wyomingites are members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, according to a recent Pew Research Center study.
Mormon voters have rejected Trump in Idaho and Utah because they are uncomfortable with his anti-Muslim comments, which stir memories of persecution of the LDS in American history.
Teton vote During last month’s Republican county conventions, Trump won in only one place – Teton County. And even that might be more of a fluke than a sign of deep-seated support, says one prominent Republican.
Keith Gingery, from Jackson and an ex-legislator, said many at the Teton County Convention were pushing for an undeclared delegate.
“We thought it that would give us much more of an advantage because people would woo them,” he said.
But the undeclared candidates couldn’t get a majority of the vote. After several rounds of voting, Jon Baker, a delegate supporting Trump, won.
Although Cruz has so far come out on top in Wyoming, Trump has started a conversation that has energized voters, said Campbell County Republican Party Chairman Chris Smith.
Faith appeal Some of Cruz’s support comes from his ability to appeal to the faith-based community, Smith said, while Trump’s aggressive views on immigration, nationalism and employment have jumped out to Wyoming voters in an election year where unemployment in the state is rising and the energy industry is in a slump.
Some Trump supporters say their voice hasn’t been heard in the process.
Clarence Vranish is one. The ex-state legislator said there was no vote, no debate on who they would support in Uinta County. His county went to Cruz.
The list of politicians Trump has vanquished is already lengthy and could grow to include Kasich and Cruz before primary season is over.
But Trump could still fall short of the necessary number of delegates, about 1,237, to secure the nomination. If that happens, his poor showing in the Northern Rockies will have played a role.
Then the faith-based community needs to get on their knees and pray that God opens their eyes to lying Ted. He is so receptive.
LOL!
Its a Freak Show. By and large I would asses 80 or 90% of those arena crowds will not go on to do anything of substance that is needed by Trump, outside of showing up to a rally, such core work as nitty gritty or party work, caucusing, phone canvassing, GOTV. Ted, on the other hand, has got this wired with boots on the ground for the last half of a year, for crying out loud! And they cry “stolen!” (sic)
Agreed, it all comes down to votes.
These are there talking points to cover-up/justify their theft. Notice how all the media outlets, the politicos are repeating this over and over that Trump's ground game doesn't cut it.
But anyone with common sense can see the discrepancy between the votes and the delegates. They're trying to convince us that even though Cruz can't win the majority or even plurality of votes that he can still dominate all the delegate conventions. It's another setup that the GOP/media/Cruz camps are together on.
I do not believe Cruz cheated. He just knows what to do and has a well established ground game which Trump is lacking. After all, Cruz is the ultimate insider establishment politician and Trump is the outsider who is just learning what politicians have to do to work the system successfully.
I always picture that when Trump is on his knees praying to God, he's kneeling in front of a full length mirror.
Would they even know who you support? I have seen incompetence on the local level of GOPs here and there which was not necessarily conspiratorial.
Same problem Guiliani had, no recognition West of old Miss. And poor quality evaluation by voters on candidates, imho. Remember it took States burning from forest fires to make them mad enough to vote against Bill Clinton. Short term thinkers who base decisions on negative ads.
You have a point. Incompetence...you nailed it. Or at least not caring.
Go for it.
One little fix (No charge!) gives Buchanan's statement nationwide applicability. ;-)
IF Trump happens to win the nomination do you think this POS cruz supporter will vote for him? The answer is yes. Now, let’s say Cruz wins, will you vote for him or do you enjoy the possibility of having Hellary as President?
Now READ CLOSELY, DONALD!!
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Yeah, Donald must be an idiot. And all those that voted for him must be idiots too.
You don’t see me trashing Cruz all day. This has grown tiresome.
Here’s a quote from a frustrated volunteer Trump leader in Indiana....
In Indiana volunteer leader complained regarding Trump....“There’s no ground game in Indiana,” .... “I’ve got state team leaders in Indiana who’ve been furious for months … they’ve had no campaign material, no ground game, no nothing and they’re going into these states 15, 20 days before the primary and it’s just too late.”
Cruz has studied previous presidential campaigns and what the winning strategy is.
One of Trump's selling points is that he is a successful CEO. However, based on his organizational strategy, I don't find him to be able to adapt to a political organization. This will be a huge failure vs. Hillary. He will lose to Hillary in a bad way.
I am reminded of Romney not able to have a serious ground game during the general election vs. Barry.
Cruz cannot win Florida, VA, OH, PA, MI, etc. I am sure Hillary appreciates your support.
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