Proving to be just about as important as a huge stadium full of 20,000 screaming fans.
Posted on 04/11/2016 9:32:26 PM PDT by AmericanInTokyo
CASPER – Study a map of presidential primary results and you’ll see Donald Trump dominating in the northeast. You’ll see him beating more established candidates in Arizona and Nevada and stunning pundits with dominance in the South.
But where you won’t see Trump winning big, or winning much at all, is in Wyoming, Utah and Idaho, three of the nation’s reddest states. There, the real estate mogul and famed reality star has struggled to connect with voters.
Trump is still the front-runner for the GOP nomination, but he has failed in the Northern Rockies. He lost to Sen. Ted Cruz in Idaho and Utah and has claimed only one delegate so far in Wyoming – the same number as U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, who has since dropped out. Cruz, in comparison, earned nine.
Several factors have contributed to Trump’s lack of success in the Northern Rockies, political observers say.
His top opponent, Cruz, has more often discussed issues that resonate with voters here – land issues, energy and gun rights.
Cruz also has made deeper inroads in the region. He has visited Wyoming once and will return Saturday. Trump has yet to visit.
And Trump’s brash style also may be hurting him, especially with Mormon voters who make up a sizable voting bloc.
Ground game Cruz got nine of the 12 delegates at the GOP county conventions in March and is expected to do well when the state’s final 14 are chosen Saturday at the Wyoming GOP Convention in Casper.
The Cruz campaign has been on the ground in here since October. But the Texas senator’s success in the Cowboy State is the result of more than his ground game, said Ed Buchanan, former state House speaker and chairman of Cruz’s Wyoming efforts.
“The positions that Trump has held over his entire career just don’t resonate with Wyoming voters,” Buchanan said. “I don’t think he shares the values and lifestyle of Western people. I don’t think he’s really in touch with what drives the economy out West – with agriculture, with natural resources, with energy production.”
Cruz, on the other hand, is from Texas, a state that has much in common with Wyoming, Buchanan said. And Cruz has been steadfast on the Second Amendment, which is important to Wyoming.
The senator first spoke in Wyoming, frequently treated as a flyover state for presidential elections, on Aug. 20 for a GOP fundraiser. When he returns for the state GOP convention, he will be the only major GOP candidate to make the trip.
The Trump campaign is sending Sarah Palin in his stead. And Idaho Gov. Butch Otter will speak to Republicans on behalf of Ohio Gov. John Kasich.
Libertarian streak Trump’s most intense support comes from white voters with lesser educations and lower incomes. In theory, that might help Trump with blue-collar voters – especially in parts of the state hammered by the energy downturn.
But Wyoming possesses more of a libertarian streak rather than Trump-style nationalism, said Matt Dallek, a professor in the Graduate School of Political Management at George Washington University.
“It is possible that Trump has continued to damage himself,” Dallek said. “There’s a sense that, look, we want a Republican, but it’s not necessarily Trump.”
In the Western and more conservative parts of the country, Dallek said, Trump may not be playing well to voters because of questions about his personal morality and whether he’s truly committed to limited government.
Also playing into Trump’s lack of popularity here are Mormon voters.
Nine percent of Wyomingites are members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, according to a recent Pew Research Center study.
Mormon voters have rejected Trump in Idaho and Utah because they are uncomfortable with his anti-Muslim comments, which stir memories of persecution of the LDS in American history.
Teton vote During last month’s Republican county conventions, Trump won in only one place – Teton County. And even that might be more of a fluke than a sign of deep-seated support, says one prominent Republican.
Keith Gingery, from Jackson and an ex-legislator, said many at the Teton County Convention were pushing for an undeclared delegate.
“We thought it that would give us much more of an advantage because people would woo them,” he said.
But the undeclared candidates couldn’t get a majority of the vote. After several rounds of voting, Jon Baker, a delegate supporting Trump, won.
Although Cruz has so far come out on top in Wyoming, Trump has started a conversation that has energized voters, said Campbell County Republican Party Chairman Chris Smith.
Faith appeal Some of Cruz’s support comes from his ability to appeal to the faith-based community, Smith said, while Trump’s aggressive views on immigration, nationalism and employment have jumped out to Wyoming voters in an election year where unemployment in the state is rising and the energy industry is in a slump.
Some Trump supporters say their voice hasn’t been heard in the process.
Clarence Vranish is one. The ex-state legislator said there was no vote, no debate on who they would support in Uinta County. His county went to Cruz.
The list of politicians Trump has vanquished is already lengthy and could grow to include Kasich and Cruz before primary season is over.
But Trump could still fall short of the necessary number of delegates, about 1,237, to secure the nomination. If that happens, his poor showing in the Northern Rockies will have played a role.
(Next Saturday)
Proving to be just about as important as a huge stadium full of 20,000 screaming fans.
Let me be the first in to say.... Whaaaaa...Cruz cheated...Whaaaa.
I HATE when that happens. ;-)
Cruz seems to have a very strong and effective ground game. Trump just throws out Hail Mary’s and complains about the officiating when they fall short.
Trump screwed up Colorado big time. He had no ground game and didn’t know the rules going in. As a result he got swept. Then he sent out his sycophants to complain that the rules that were in place long before he made his announcement were not “fair”. Whaaaahh!
The rules are in place and the ground troops know the rules. Trump doesn’t want to play by the rules. He just wants to bitch when he fails to win. Just like his fellow egomaniac Obama.
Awww... Did I hurt someone’s wittle feewings? Its ok, deep breaths now, deep breaths. Its just the internet. Don’t take it personally.
"A Brief Civics Lesson in Delegate Selection
The Republican National Committee (RNC) has two jobs. First is to hold a convention, which nominates a presidential candidate. The second is to see to the election of that nominee. So: how does the Wyoming Republican Party select its delegates and alternates to that convention? No two states do it exactly the same way.
A delegate is entitled to vote and otherwise participate in the convention. If the delegate cannot do so, an alternate steps in. The RNC sets the size of each delegation, using a formula that rewards state parties for electing Republicans. In 2016, Wyoming is entitled to 29 delegates and 26 alternates. Wyoming’s Delegate Selection Process
In all states, three delegates are automatic, the state party Chairman, the Republican National Committeewoman, and the Republican National Committeeman. They do not get any alternates.
County conventions (March 12) select another 12 delegates and their 12 alternates. In most cases, a county convention will elect either a delegate or an alternate to the Republican National Convention. For this purpose, the state’s 23 counties are divided into twelve delegate districts (with the county electing the delegate emphasized): (1) Natrona-Albany; (2) Carbon-Sweetwater; (3) Lincoln-Uinta; (4) Teton-Sublette; (5) Park-Fremont; (6) Hot Springs-Washakie; (7) Sheridan-Big Horn; (8) Campbell-Johnson; (9) Crook-Weston; (10) Converse-Niobrara; (11) Platte-Goshen; and (12) Laramie. Laramie County, being its own district, elects one of each.
The remaining delegates and alternates, if any, are selected at the state convention. Wyoming is entitled to 29 delegates. We have accounted for 15 of those, leaving 14 to elect at the state convention. The state convention will also elect 14 alternates.
Delegates and alternates are elected from one big slate, so those voting at the convention get to vote for up to 28 people. The top 14 are the delegates. The bottom 14 are the alternates. These are promoted to delegates in the order of their vote count.
So Who Elects These People?
The Chairman is elected to a two year term by the State Central Committee in the spring of odd numbered years. The National Committeeman and National Committeewoman are elected to four year terms at the state convention of presidential election years.
Delegates to the state convention are elected by the county conventions. Delegates to the county convention are elected by precinct caucuses in their respective counties. Any person registered to vote Republican as of the call for precinct caucuses in a given precinct may vote in that precinct’s caucus.
Resources The Wyoming delegate selection process is governed by the Bylaws of the Republican Party of Wyoming, Wyoming Statute Title 22, and the Republican National Committee Rules." "
You sir, (or ma’am) win the award for most spot-on FR post of the week.
Bit off topic, but if there’s one thing we should’ve learned from Mitt’s defeat by BO in 2012, thousands of people filling a venue for a candidate doesn’t necessarily equal votes. I recall seeing pictures of Mitt’s appearances with seemingly thousands of people there to hear him.
I tend to think tRump’s crowds are a lot of “let’s go hear the ‘you’re fired’ guy speak,” but that may be due to my bias against the man.
Be sure to SPREAD THE WORD now.
I’m a WY Republican and was looking to caucus in my area. I got no notice (though I had registered with the locals and given contact info well in advance). Though I was traveling in Feb, I expected to be back in time. Looked where to caucus in area online. I felt very much shut out like the fix was in—for Cruz. Another WY Republican friend had the same experience.
Ironically, a very elderly relative in a nursing home, a registered Dem, got her notice from Dems and was urged to participate.
Just saying....
It would be a shame if President Clinton appoints 3 or 4 Supreme Court Justices. I have no doubt they would change the ruling on an individual right to bear arms, among other things. Thank the man from Canada and those from the Northern Rockies who supported him.
We're just trying to keep up with the Trump supporters in the "POS" area. It is hard, you know for us poor Cruz supporters to match up to the POS-ness of Trump supporters.
But, "hate" is a mean word mister. Go wash your mouth with soap.
You want to make your nasties against Trump I can got toe to toe on the ineligible Cruz. K?
Funny how you all just love the gopE and their rules now. I guess partial birth abortions that are done by the rules are also okay with you so called “conservatives”, eh? I mean they are done by the rule and all.
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