Posted on 04/08/2016 7:10:22 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
The New York primary is rather 28 separate primaries, as 81 of the delegates will be distributed on the basis of results in the state's 27 congressional districts and 14 will distributed at large based on the statewide results. It takes winning over 50% of the vote to be allocated all three delegates from a district. If the winner has a mere plurality, the delegates are allocated proportionally. These 27 districts include urban minority enclaves, affluent suburbs, small cities, and vast stretches of rural areas.
Another crucial factor is that New York is closed primary: not only can't independents participate in the party primaries, but there is an exceptionally long lead time for changing party affiliation. While new voters could register by March 25 and qualify to vote on April 19, the deadline for those who were already registered to change their party affiliation was October 9, 2015.
These rules may make for some unusual calculations on how a candidate may want to allocate resources. For example, winning 4,000 votes in the 17th Congressional District means winning more delegates than winning 80,000 votes in the 27th District because there are only 7,500 registered Republicans in the former, while there are 186,000 registered Republicans in the later.
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
So Ted is going to lose 28 times? I can’t wait
Maybe not lose 28 times, but maybe not win all 28. Too bad, so sad
RE: So Ted is going to lose 28 times?
Is that a prediction? If so, I will bookmark this page and come back to it on April 20.
RE: So Ted is going to lose 28 times?
“Is that a prediction? If so, I will bookmark this page and come back to it on April 20.”
Yes please do!
Very interesting.
Funny how the Democrats and the GOPe (but I repeat myself) think that congressional district based voting is such a good idea for distributing delegates in primaries but not for distributing electoral votes in November.
Cruz polling in 3rd place at 17% in NY.
Trump will get the vast majority or most likely all of the delegates even if doesnt top over 50 percent. The other 2 losers are polling way too low for them to win any of the other districts.
>>Trump will get the vast majority or most likely all of the delegates even if doesn’t top over 50 percent. The other 2 losers are polling way too low for them to win any of the other districts.<<
Nonsense. If he doesn’t top 50% in a district he will only get two of the three delegates and the runner up will get one. The runner up will need to break 20%, but with Trump under 50% that has to happen with only a three-man race. Simple math. Now if Trump does get 50% then, yes, he’ll get all three.
It makes more sense for the general, because the people are evenly spread among the CDs.
For a primary, it makes more sense to break it into districts of equal numbers of Republicans.
You just might come away surprised - a bit.
Just like with Cruz in Wisconsin. He had a commanding lead statewide and Trump didn't win any districts or get any delegates.
From the last sentence of the article: “...this is a contest that calls for a good internal polling operation and a strong local organization to allocate resources to the most promising districts.”
Well, we know who has the best ground game by now, right? Maybe Cruz will surprise.
In any case, this is a state where Kasich is definitely helping Cruz because their combined support is more likely to keep Trump under 50% in some districts, whereas Cruz alone would be unlikely to do so, which is why we’re not hearing a lot from Cruz on that matter lately, I suspect.
>>Just like with Cruz in Wisconsin. He had a commanding lead statewide and Trump didn’t win any districts or get any delegates. <<
Actually Trump won two of the seven districts in Wisconsin and got all three delegates in each for a total of six of the 42 available.
And in NY it’s harder to get all three delegates. The runner up will get one of the three if the winner is held under 50%, so Cruz and Kasich are likely to get several delegates, especially if Trump’s support there starts to weaken in the next ten days or so.
It is precisely what you propose makes sense . . . which is why the Uniparty does the opposite.
Yes, I was pointing out that relying on statewide polls for individual district results was foolish. Which was the point of the article.
Then you would have to have closed primaries and registration far enough in advance so that they could draw up the districts evenly.
All of which are good ideas.
Several states allocate delegates based upon CD win and overall.
While on the subject, what in the hell is going on in Colorado?
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