Wisconsin is funny, some polls had Walker down or tied in the recall election yet he walked away with it by 7%. The fact that it’s an open primary, not a stupid caucus, and that I think there are a lot of blue collar Democrats who have disdain for the University of Wisconsin eggheads and occupier types and who just want good paying jobs and less DC control hopefully will be crossing over to help Trump win.
Delegates are won by congressional district.
Even in open Primaries Cruz outperforms the pre-election polls (typically). He has a very solid ground game. And with Walker’s endorsement he will have an even better ground game on getting out the vote.
I think it’s over for Trump unless he gets a surprise win in Wisconsin. Without Wisconsin he can’t get to 1237. He will fall short of the number (not by a lot but still short). Unless he can convince some uncommitted delegates to vote for him in the first round of voting he can’t win.
So now the real question is does Cruz have enough support to win in the 2nd round of voting or will the GOPe pick a nominee.
The fighting between Cruz and Trump needs to end. Neither one will get to 1237.