Posted on 03/23/2016 8:56:25 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
If today’s poll from Quinnipiac is to be believed, both major parties are well on their way to ensuring a low-turnout election in November — or perhaps a high turnout of people voting against someone. In their national survey, both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton enjoy healthy leads over rivals within their own party’s voters, but also healthy skepticism in general election matchups. They are the two most unpopular choices for voters when it comes to casting the final ballot.
The GOP side of the survey shows Trump with 43%, while Ted Cruz gets 29% and John Kasich gets 16%. Even combined, the non-Trump candidates get only to a virtual tie with Trump, calling into question the idea that Cruz can overtake Trump in a one-on-one race. Trump wins almost every demographic; Cruz edges him with “very conservative” voters, but not by much at 47/42. Kasich does best with college-educated and moderate-to-liberal Republicans at 28% for both demos, but Trump beats him in both, especially with 40% in the latter. One interesting note: Cruz appeals equally to Republican men and women, 29/28 respectively. So does Trump, 45/40.
Perhaps some of those voters will shift to Cruz if Kasich pulls out, but more of them go to Trump. Quinnipiac asked that question, and found that Kasich voters split 46/37 in favor of Trump. And second choice among Cruz voters is also Trump, by a much wider 56/25 split.
Hillary Clinton continues to lead Bernie Sanders 50/38, and the delegate chase makes her victory all but certain. (The only ambiguity is whether she gets indicted before the convention.) In the Q-poll head-to-heads, Hillary only beats Trump outside the margin of error, while Kasich ends up as the most competitive Republican in the field:
- Clinton tops Trump 46 – 40 percent;
- Clinton gets 45 percent to 42 percent for Cruz;
- Kasich tops Clinton 47 – 39 percent;
- Sanders beats Trump 52 – 38 percent;
- Sanders tops Cruz 50 – 39 percent;
- Kasich gets 45 percent to Sanders’ 44 percent.
Why do the party leaders do so poorly? In large part, it’s because voters have such low opinions of them:
Trump and Clinton top the “no way” list as 54 percent of American voters say they “would definitely not” vote for Trump, with 43 percent saying no to Clinton, 33 percent nixing Cruz, 27 percent saying no to Sanders and 14 percent saying no to Kasich.
“Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton may have the overall leads among primary voters, but there is not a lot of love in the room as a big percentage of Americans say of the front- runners they could take ’em or leave ’em,” said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. “Though short on delegates and short on time, Sen. Bernie Sanders and Gov. John Kasich can hang their hats on the fact that if folks went to the polls today, they’d fare better than the other candidates.”
The demos on this question are revealing. Trump leads Hillary in the “never” category in almost every demo except Republicans, seniors, white men and white voters overall. Men overall split almost evenly between Trump and Clinton (48/47, respectively) as “nevers,” but women are toughr on Trump, 60/40. Bear in mind that this is not a binary question; 40% of women overall say that they can never vote for Hillary, period. But even where Trump is considered to have particular strength — white voters — 47% says “definitely not” to Trump, with 50% saying no to Hillary. That’s not much of an advantage in a general election, especially when 74% of non-white voters say “never” to Trump.
Let’s take a look at the more positive binary scenario of a Trump-Clinton matchup with that demo in mind. Trump wins the white vote, but only by 46/39. Romney won it 59/39 in 2012 on his way to an overall loss. Kasich does better at 56/30, and even Cruz improves on Trump’s performance with a 51/36 split. The Q-poll doesn’t include income demos, but it does split on college degrees. Once more, Trump doesn’t show much difference with his presumed blue-collar base; he edges Hillary 43/41, while Cruz gets a 46/40 lead and Kasich wins 48/36.
At least in this poll, there seems to be little evidence that Trump will motivate the white working-class voters in a general election. Without that, the Rust Belt path won’t work, and the traditional key swing states of Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia will all tip blue. That should have Republicans considering some second thoughts on the nomination.
Update: There is one important caveat to this, which is that the demos matter more in the states on which that path is built. For instance, Trump can be as unpopular with white working-class voters in California as possible because he’ll have no chance of winning it anyway. But if he’s scoring well in those demos in Pennsylvania and Michigan, then it’s a different story. With this poll, though, there is no evidence that any such impulse exists.
Kasich/Cruz being pushed by MSM. They’ll never give up.
National head-to-head meaningless.
Let’s do electoral college, likely voters who are the ones who actually do elections. Trump wins OH, FL, NC, VA, MO, and MI, plus likely PA, IA, NH, and ME.
Big EC victory.
New York Times/CBS Poll: 74% of Republicans Don’t Support Cruz, 80% Don’t Support Kasich…
http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3412095/posts
RE: New York Times/CBS Poll: 74% of Republicans Don’t Support Cruz, 80% Don’t Support Kasich…
If we can believe the polls, it looks like a President Clinton to me...
That so many young people would vote for a commie that lived in his mommy’s basement till he was forty, and never had a job, spells doom for America.
“RE: New York Times/CBS Poll: 74% of Republicans Don’t Support Cruz, 80% Don’t Support Kasich…
If we can believe the polls, it looks like a President Clinton to me...”
If Trump could start his campaign against Hillary and not have to deal with “Can’t win Teddy”, the numbers would change.
How many times do you have to get it wrong?
Stupid article.
Kasich is a liberal. Bernie is a communist. So is the media.
Kasicko is to the left of Hubert Humphrey.
And he will lose to whichever totalitarian statist the demonrats nominate.
That’s why the media love him so much.
Another hard core anti-Trump (supposedly conservative) web site heard from.
Well. Kasich is our only hope. I’m glad they told me that. I might have made a mistake, otherwise.
Hillary and not have to deal with “Can’t win Teddy”, the numbers would change.
Let me add up all the states Kasich has won so far in the primary...
1
Kind of hard to spin that into a winner.
My impression of Kasich is that he is delusional. That or the GOOe is so confident that they feel they can force Americans to eat a sh*t sandwich and find joy in doing so.
Clinton beats Trump by 6pts?
That’s all?
The Clinton’s are history.
That is how I read it too.
If Walker can pull his head out of his backside, WI is in play too.
Walker is the biggest of RINOs, so I doubt he’ll get there.
I didn’t even vote for Trump but I realize that Trump’s focus right now has been on the other GOP candidates, and he went from zero to winning. Once he focuses on Hillary, I’d expect these numbers to change.
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