How Trump vs. Clinton would reshape the electoral map

The Washington Post ^ | May 19,2016 | Dan Balz

[Hojczyk]

Among the 18 states that have been in Democratic hands since the 1992 election are Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Minnesota. Along with Ohio and Iowa, those heartland states are likely to be the most intensely contested battlegrounds in the country if a Trump-Clinton race materializes.

All those states have higher concentrations of white voters, including larger percentages of older, white working-class voters, than many of the states in faster-growing areas that Obama looked to in his two campaigns.

“If he drives big turnout increases with white voters, especially with white male voters, that has the potential to change the map,” said a veteran of Obama’s campaigns, who spoke anonymously in order to share current analysis of the fall campaign.

Steve Schmidt, a Republican strategist and veteran of past presidential campaigns, said Trump’s overall general election strength is unpredictable at this point, in part because Trump could campaign as a different candidate from the one on display throughout the primaries. But he said that what Trump has shown to date is an ability to surprise his opponents and offer crosscutting messages to draw support.

[dp0622]

Obama and jarrett and lynch will do everything to make sure he doesn’t win.

then the real revolution will begin.

let’s hope he defeats their nefarious efforts first.

I just cant envision obummer handing the keys over to Trump.

and I don’t trust the military anymore.

[Cowboy Bob]

“If he drives big turnout increases with white voters, especially with white male voters, that has the potential to change the map,” said a veteran of Obama’s campaigns, who spoke anonymously in order to share current analysis of the fall campaign.

I've been saying for a long time - if the Republicans can just get an additional 5% of the White vote, the Black vote becomes unnecessary.

In this election, the blacks are going to sit at home, and the White working class is NOT going to vote for Hillary.

[Defiant]

The massive effort to send BLM types into all his rallies and shut him down in Chicago and NY may be a strategy to prevent him from making an appeal to black voters in the inner city. I could see Trump going into Harlem and other cities and talking to blacks about what the Democrat party has done to them, and what he intends to do to help them. He could get 25 to 30 percent of their vote. They know him and trust him; he's not some pasty white politician, he's Trump. Friend of Snoop Dog and Mike Tyson and many others.

But, by sending in the radicals to start fights, and making it appear that Trump's supporters are bigots, they maintain their us/them mindset in the black community, and head off a Trump move that could give him a lock on the win. Obama excels at dividing and reducing politics to a tribal level.

[FirstFlaBn]

The unseen benefit is that Trump’s appeal in blue states would require the Dims to spread their resources thinner. This is way beyond the grasp of simpleminded pundits and urinalists.

[libbylu]

Purple states would turn blue along with some red states like Utah.

[dp0622]

the difference this time is that trump will say Exactly what they’re up to.

and he’ll still go into those neighborhoods.

betcha white college f...ts wont be so eager to go protest in the Bronx.

[LNV]

Correct. Hillary is a bad candidate. This election cycle the Dems have done what the Reps so often do—run the one whose turn it is. The formidable Clinton electoral machine was always an MSM-fueled myth. Bill won a plurality in 1992 because of Perot, and won in 1996 because of the power of incumbency and because the Reps ran Dole, the guy whose turn it was. Hillary is unlikeable. She’ll get a lot of women to vote for her, but she doesn’t excite any of the other demographics the Dems need to win. The young skulls full of mush who are feeling the Bern will not turn out for her. Neither will men. Hillary can’t win without the Rust Belt, where Trump has already shown he has wide appeal.Also, Bernie has made Hillary run very far to the left in the primary. She’s been trying to out-Commie the Commie for months now. She will have a difficult time tacking to the center to get the mushy middle, where all elections are won.

[FroggyTheGremlim]

I believe Trump can win New York State.

[erlayman]

I’m not sure he will get 5%, but even a few percentages higher than Romney across all minorities and 1-2 increase with whites and the Dems sit home is going to be a massive victory.

[Hojczyk]

Polls will not reflect how Trump is doing with latinos

Most legals hate illegals but you have to ask them

[Parley Baer]

So far Steve Schmidt’s predictions have fell flat in this election year. He and Karl Rove are tied for the biggest loser trophy.

[Bon mots]

[Dick Bachert]

13 minute video reveals that Trump “GETS IT.”
This is why the oligarchs are suffering embarrassing bouts of public diurnal enuresis.
There will be MANY MORE attempts on Trump and his family. I just pray they FAIL and the criminals responsible face justice (but I’m not holding my breath).
I haven’t been an Alex Jones fan as his stuff tends toward the sensational. That said, hearing that there REALLY IS a plan in place to take over the world can be rather sensational to folks who hear it for the first time and/or suffer severe guilt for knowing it — and have done nothing to resist while knowing that their children and grandchildren will be denied the birthright THEY inherited!
Now — thanks to Trump — that that plan is becoming clear to millions of folks, Jones is becoming more mainstream every day.
Here is one of his more “interesting” videos: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sDr2NJPv8kE

PLEASE WATCH THEN SHARE WIDELY!

[TomGuy]

In 2008, the Arkansas delegation consisted of 3 Democrat Representatives, 2 Democrat Senators, and a Democrat governor. Only 1 Representative was a Republican.

By 2016, the Arkansas delegation consists of 4 Republican Representatives, 2 Republican Senators, and a Republican governor. IIRC, the state legislature has also shifted with Republican majorities in both chambers.

==

I have no idea what other states might have had such a political shift in the last 8 years, but that would impact the Democrat candidate significantly.

Of course, the Dems/media is Arkansas claim the state LUVs Hillary, but will that translate into votes for her as president?

[TomGuy]

Bill won a plurality in 1992 because of Perot

BJ won because GHW ran a campaign that was about as exciting as Jeb's 2016 campaign. Bush didn't even start acting like he was running for reelection until a few weeks before the election.

A newsie asked him in an interview soon after his loss why he didn't mount a more aggressive reelection campaign.

He responded that he thought as the incumbent his reelection was a sure thing, so he didn't want to spend 'presidential' time on the race.

[Katya]

I live in a blue state... the only Trumpsters I have met, outside of my two millenial kids lol are black cab drivers. Two dozen since New Years...women, men and about 1/3 originally from Africa.

[I Hired Craig Livingstone]

Those 1/3 from Africa have probably had bad experiences with Muslims back home...

[TontoKowalski]

You bet he's got a few surprises lined up for them.

In this election Hillary is the "pro-war" candidate. She's the one who voted for the war in Iraq. He's the one who opposed it, and blasted GWB for the war on a Republican debate stage.

She's the one who wants to put those Pennsylvania coal miners out of work. That town hall clip will be running in coal country 24/7.

He's the one who has targeted his message to those blue-collar Midwest voters. She's the one who wants to deny them the jobs that would come with the pipeline.

He's the one who wants to focus on American infrastructure, she's the one who aligns herself with hippies shutting down interstates. That will play real well with suburban commuters who get road rage when someone only does 70 in the fast lane.

Trump has been running a general election campaign from the start.

[Angels27]

Utah going blue????? Not even Trump can offend enough Utahans to make them vote for Hillary.