Posted on 03/10/2016 5:05:09 AM PST by McGruff
If Donald Trump wins the Republican Party nomination, his path to the White House will run through this working-class city with a knack for picking presidents.
No Republican has ever won the White House without Ohio. And nowhere better reflects the challenges and opportunities Trump faces in his 2016 presidential quest than Canton, a once-booming industrial city that, like Ohio and the rest of America’s rust belt, is going through profound economic and demographic change.
Canton, a gritty northeastern Ohio city where the once-dominant steel industry has been in decline for 20 years, is the heart of Stark County, a political bellwether that, save twice, has picked every winning presidential candidate since 1964.
(Excerpt) Read more at reuters.com ...
That's the problem with national poll forecasts about anyone versus anyone in the general election.
They over represent states that are overwhelmingly big and overwhelmingly democratic.
In a general election, polls should be state by state and electoral votes tallied.
“In a general election, polls should be state by state and electoral votes tallied.”
Right.
And that was my only point:
IF you’re going to vote according to the polls, THEN best to look at the state by state polls because they are closer to the reality of who is going to win.
I believe it’s true in the 20th century. Some Ohioan will help us out here I’m sure.
They need to turn out the vote then if they want Trump to win. He’s up against a sitting governor of a state who seems to be popular there. If he loses it’s unhelpful to him, but if he wins it’s a big score.
Isn't it interesting, that all these independent voters and working class Democrats, the next generation of Reagan Democrats if you will, who are coalescing around Trump, obviously have nothing against Donald Trump's wealth?
They're willing to vote for him and otherwise support him even though he is fabulously wealthy and is in fact rather ostentatious about it? Particularly in "industrial" states like Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania?
I think they also knew that Ronald Reagan was a very wealthy man in his time.
The difference between multi-millionaire and billionaire is irrelevant to me. Here is Ohio, I think we know the difference. In farm country it’s a little different where a farmer can be a ‘land millionaire’ but not a cash millionaire.
Despite that, the statement is still correct.
The key part of putting together a Reagan-like coalition, is convincing private-sector working-class that the Democrats are not looking out for their interests. Working-class people care more about having a job, a job not threatened by off-shoring, not threatened by being replaced by lower-paid immigrants, than they care about Democrat ideological purity.
Convince them that you will do a better job of preserving American jobs, by making America great again, and you will get a lot of crossovers.
The Dem party is ripe for somebody engineering a walkout of their white working class voters.
Aren't they to be expected to vote their class and always vote Democrat, like the union says, just as they're supposed to also marry their class?
/(Slight tone of debbil's advocate since you're not here in person...)
A couple of things you’re probably already aware of:
1. Values voters most often are blue-collar/middle class AND they have voted republican for some time
2. Union voters vote their paychecks and their middle class status and America first: In Reagan’s time, that was Reagan. In Trump’s time, that is Trump.
We’ve seen through the stupid ‘free trade’ doctrine of the purist conservatives.
I live in Toledo. My wife is a union member and a state government employee. At this time, she is enthusiastically behind Donald Trump because she likes his tax plan and his illegal immigration policy. She despises Governor Kasich and voted against him as did most Ohio union members over the whole SB5 issue back in 2011. This was widely perceived as an attack on collective bargaining by John Kasich. As such, John Kasich is probably not going to help win over union votes in urban areas.
Very smart. Thank you.
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I keep telling people that. I don't get why Cruz states in debates he is the "one true conservative" (Or whatever his line is). Does he and his supporters assume conservatives of his type are 51% of the voters? Cruz is smart enough to know this but he keeps repeating it. That means either Cruz does not care about winning the White House and just wants to capture the GOP for himself or he plans to pivot moderate for the general which would be a let down and stab in the back to his base that voted for him for his implied inflexibility.
Yes, he’s saying “I’m a billionaire, and that proves I’m not greedy.” Which if you look at it logically is absurd.
But through another lens he might be saying, “Hey I’m a loud hard-partying regular guy just like you all, I just happen to be super-good at biznis. Otherwise I’m just like you.” And that seems to be what people are buying.
Same thing will happen in PA, Trump will get a lot of Blue Collar traditional democratic voters there as well.
I’m surprised that Kasich is so strong in OH. Even though he’s the governor, he’s made it clear he’s just hanging in to break up the vote and get to a convention. I wouldn’t waste my vote on someone with those motives.
Yeah, either that or there was so much discussion of "Red states" and "blue states" after the 2000 election that it would be confusing to switch the colors.
As had been the practice in the past (blue for incumbent party, red for out-of-power party). Clinton was president, so Democrats were blue in 2000.
Used to be FR understood basic facts.
Interesting...thanks for sharing.
But, but, but......
They’ll also vote for Cruz, so we better get rid of Mr. Trump now!
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