Posted on 02/17/2016 5:14:50 PM PST by Kaslin
While leaving the station after my radio show Tuesday, the thought occurred to me that if Donald Trump is the nominee for the Republican Party and he loses the general election, it won't be his fault. It will be all the elitist, establishment Republicans who have dismissed and assaulted him since the beginning. It will be all the nasty commentary, the statements about how unelectable he is and it will have very little to do with the Democrats' actions or Trump himself. It will be the result of collateral damage from a nasty primary election; he'll have some guilt in the latter. The Democrat candidates are mostly and wisely sitting on the sidelines watching the Republicans destroy each other and their party.
Trump hinted this week that he may drop his pledge to support the Republican nominee if the assaults and lies don't stop.
Then it occurred to me what may actually happen. We're all neglecting the nightmare scenario. It's literally possible that through a brokered convention or a further Republican meltdown of assaults against Trump that we end up with four viable candidates for President in November's general election.
In this scenario, I believe Marco Rubio becomes the nominee for the Republican Party. There are some states Ted Cruz just won't win. Absent Trump, these go to Rubio. It appears certain that Hillary Clinton, unless she goes to jail where she belongs, will be the Democrat nominee for President. Scathing from the assaults and tear-downs of the establishment Republicans, Donald Trump then runs as an independent.
Where does the fourth candidate come into play? Seeing a massive opportunity and real chance for victory, enter former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg.
Who wins in this dumpster fire? It will likely be a candidate with less than one-third of the vote.
Given how this election is going, we could probably predict the outcome just as accurately with Hillary Clinton's Iowa Caucus coin-flip. In other words, at this point, none of them win, including the one with the most votes.
Absent jail, Hillary likely gets the most votes. But, with no majority, Hillary has to go to the House. Don't get excited. Not the 'big house," The House.
If no candidate receives the majority of votes, a 'contingent election' is held. The election of the President goes to the House of Representatives. Each state delegation casts one vote for one of the top three general-election finalists to determine a winner.
This happened in the election of 1824 between Henry Clay, the Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, Andrew Jackson, known for his victory at the Battle of New Orleans in 1815, John Calhoun, the Secretary of War and John Quincy Adams, the Secretary of State. John Quincy Adams won the election after the contingent election by the House of Representatives. It was the first presidential election in which the candidate who received the most electoral votes, did not become President. Andrew Jackson had the most.
The single national party in power at that time had been the Democratic-Republican Party. The party effectively fell apart that election season and split four ways because they couldn't agree on a candidate. John Quincy Adams' followers later became the Republican Party and Andrew Jackson's followers manifested into the Democrat Party.
Based on the political map,a vote in The House likely favors Rubio. The establishment-Republicans are so hungry for the status-quo (the same group who have been damaging this country) that they'll risk a complete political meltdown rather than to have an outsider like Trump become their nominee.
Like I said in the beginning, even in this outlier of a scenario, the real tragedy in the Republican Party is that so many are throwing the baby out with the bathwater in attacking Donald Trump so viciously. But, to question such actions, would be to falsely assume they care about the party or its cause. They don't. They care about maintaining the comfortable position of power they have attained, and they expect you to comply or they'll "burn down the house." "The house" is both the party and the cause, in favor of their power. If you corner and threaten a vicious dog, he is likely to bite.
The Trump-voters clearly don't care either. They, too, are wiling to "burn down the house" if Trump isn't the nominee.
If this destructive behavior continues, there will be a massive shakeup in Washington, of the likes, never seen before. But, isn't that the ultimate goal of everyone but the parties' establishment anyway?
I wouldn’t put it past Trump to run 3rd party. He will then be like Ross Perot and insure a dem win. But he wouldn’t care. It’s not about America, it’s really all about him.
Exactly
This would create a parallel with Jackson’s first run in 1824 rather than his successful run in 1828.
1860 again.
To me it looks like Hillary vs Trump with Hillary winning.
Bloomie is a Clinton affiliate, so he’s out if she’s the Dem nominee.
But I was the the guy that said Obama couldn’t get re-elected with $4 gas, surging food prices, 8% unemployment (13% actual) trillion dollar deficits, Obamacare and Benghazi.
So what do I know, LOL.
Funny, I could remove Trump and replace with GOPe and your post is just as accurate. What happens if Trump wins enough delegates to be the Republican nominee and the establishment runs a 3rd party campaign? Is that still Trumps fault, to you?
In gratitude for his help, Hillary may appoint Trump ambassador to somewhere nice. They’ve always been pals.
WHo ya picking for Daytona? Flash 2?
What a leap year!
Interesting piece.
Trump should have promised to build a resort on our Territories to beat Cruz to the punch.
What makes you think this isn't the plan already? Bill Clinton never won a majority of the vote. He was only President because a third-party candidate siphoned votes away from the Republicans. For all the blather about Ross Perot, there never was a question in my mind that he was in the race solely to help Clinton.
Why wouldn't Hillary try exactly the same tactic? Trump has always been friendly to the Clintons. The only difference this time is that Hillary & co. underestimated the anger of the electorate and Trump actually has a shot to win. Trump's ego might actually help here, as I doubt he'll be willing to take the fall if he is the nominee/frontrunner. But if he's not, he's in 3rd party to guarantee a Hillary win. Bank on it...
The way they wreck now in those restrictor races, I think it’s a totally random outcome, LOL
sure I'd vote for him if he wins the nomination, knowingly full well he's not conservative, not Christian, not moral...
See my tag line. That is one reason why he was reelected. The other one was that he stole the election which he had planned to do. Finally third reason is that so many on our side stayed home and some wrote in some third party candidate in the general election, who had zero chances of getting elected because they did not like the nominee.
“he stole the election which he had planned to do”
Yes. Others did it for him, but he knew/knows.
It wouldn’t surprise if Cruz didn’t go third party if Trump beats him. It’s personal to him now
You have to consider Romney, the loser the GOPe stuck us with in 08.
No 08 was McLame, and at that point Obama was a blank slate that the media had determined to be a messiah.
“if Donald Trump is the nominee for the Republican Party and he loses the general election, it won’t be his fault”
Wrong. He could have wrapped it up by now but decided he did not need to be a committed conservative in order to have the devotion of conservatives. He does not think he needs true conservatives to win. And he could be right. Or he might be wrong. But if he loses, it will be his own fault. No one else.
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