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How pollsters got Iowa wrong: Close on the Democratic race, but all missed Ted Cruz's win.
Politico ^ | 02/02/2016 | By STEVEN SHEPARD

Posted on 02/02/2016 2:37:51 PM PST by SeekAndFind

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To: chae
Well not yet, since they have not held their caucus yet. So he may have it now, but one never knows what the future holds, especially when it comes to politics.

In addition to Guam getting delegates, so do these:

American Samoa, District of Columbia, Northern Mariana Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands.

21 posted on 02/02/2016 3:11:26 PM PST by Robert DeLong (u)
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To: QuigleyDU

RE: Cruz cheated, announced Carson’s suspension during caucus, only needed four votes per precinct to pull it off.

http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3391874/posts

“On the Ben Carson allegation, it’s just false. We simply, as a campaign, repeated what Ben Carson had said,” Cruz spokesman Rick Tyler said in an interview on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe.”


22 posted on 02/02/2016 3:23:43 PM PST by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

And Rubio’s close 3rd!


23 posted on 02/02/2016 3:29:08 PM PST by afraidfortherepublic
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To: SeekAndFind

I’m guessing the establishment knew what the polls really said. They lowered Rubios numbers and gave them to Trump, then they could pump up Rubio and claim how everyone likes him, and oh what a surprise. You could see how they talked so positive about Rubio and how they hated Cruz and trump.


24 posted on 02/02/2016 3:34:20 PM PST by Linda Frances (Woe to those who call evil good and good evil, who put darkness for light and light for darkness.)
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To: SeekAndFind

I would like to know the number of votes that Cruz stole from Carson...??


25 posted on 02/02/2016 4:06:29 PM PST by Gator113 (~~Go Trump Go~~)
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To: QuigleyDU

Disgusting. Cruz will never get my vote.


26 posted on 02/02/2016 4:08:37 PM PST by Gator113 (~~Go Trump Go~~)
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To: Gator113

RE: I would like to know the number of votes that Cruz stole from Carson...??

And why would Cruz steal votes from Carson?

The news of Carson’s flying to Florida was reported by CNN.


27 posted on 02/02/2016 4:10:16 PM PST by SeekAndFind
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To: Gator113

RE: Disgusting. Cruz will never get my vote.

http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3391874/posts

“On the Ben Carson allegation, it’s just false. We simply, as a campaign, repeated what Ben Carson had said,” Cruz spokesman Rick Tyler said in an interview on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe.”

http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3392000/posts

CNN Report On Carson Going Home To Florida


28 posted on 02/02/2016 4:13:05 PM PST by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind
Actually this statement is totally incorrect.

Both Cruz and Trump were within the margin of error for the polls, which was 4-5 percent. Cruz a little higher, Trump a little lower.

Rubio was the one who outperformed the poll prediction going beyond the margin of error.

29 posted on 02/02/2016 4:13:12 PM PST by onona (Where are you tonight, my sweet Marie)
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To: onona
http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Here's my source, for whatever the heck that's worth.

30 posted on 02/02/2016 4:14:16 PM PST by onona (Where are you tonight, my sweet Marie)
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To: onona

RE: Both Cruz and Trump were within the margin of error for the polls, which was 4-5 percent. Cruz a little higher, Trump a little lower.

__________________________

Trump’s lead the night before the caucus was 9 points.

http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3391158/posts

Trump Leads Cruz by 9 Points in Iowa on the Eve of the Caucuses — 34-25%

Donald Trump 34%
Ted Cruz 25%
Marco Rubio 14%
Ben Carson 7%
Jeb Bush 5%
Rand Paul 3%
John Kasich 3%
Chris Christie 1%
Carly Fiorina 1%
Other 2%
Undecided 3%


31 posted on 02/02/2016 4:15:57 PM PST by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

Someone who knows how, Please post Carson’s comments on NBC Sunday morning. As I recall it, Carson’s own words were very similar to the words in the Cruz flyer. Carson was hoping for a surprise, but did not expect it. Carson said he would step back and evaluate when to drop out.


32 posted on 02/02/2016 4:20:55 PM PST by spintreebob
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To: SeekAndFind

Not that I like polls, but as I understand it, Cruz was 28% and Trump was 24%. So if the margin of error in the poll was 3%, that puts a Trump win in range (24+3=27, 28-3=25).

Anyone actually know the margin of error of the poll in question?


33 posted on 02/02/2016 4:22:26 PM PST by fruser1
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To: SeekAndFind

Carson did not formally suspend his campaign.


34 posted on 02/02/2016 4:33:48 PM PST by Gator113 (~~Go Trump Go~~)
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To: ColdOne
When do they get it right?

When they grasp the idea that there are still a few people, maybe enough to count as the deciding slice, that still prefer a bit of refinement in their most prominent leaders and in the communities they wish to revive.

And actually, I'm beginning to sense that quite a large proportion of our children coming of age are getting tired of a preceding generation of foul-mouthed, ill-mannered, uncouth, and inconsiderate "grownups" who think such behavior illustrates the desirability of shockingly radical individuality that must be accepted, or else . . .

I don't think that the abused spawn of such moral idiots will permit further indecencies as they themselves mature into power over an era of self-professed slobs.

35 posted on 02/02/2016 6:43:39 PM PST by imardmd1 (Fiat Lux)
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To: SeekAndFind

Polls can’t account for dirty tactics.


36 posted on 02/03/2016 7:46:40 AM PST by CottonBall
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To: CottonBall

RE: Polls can’t account for dirty tactics.

Are Iowan voters so dumb that they can’t check whether or not an email or even news being reported at CNN is true or not before voting?

I am unconvinced that Carson’s 9% votes was CAUSED by the news that he was dropping out.


37 posted on 02/03/2016 7:50:02 AM PST by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

“Are Iowan voters so dumb that they can’t check whether or not an email or even news being reported at CNN is true or not before voting?”

Not the last minute, like the caucus format has people discussing right before voting. It sets up the opportunity for fraud, which Cruz took advantage of.


38 posted on 02/03/2016 11:29:57 AM PST by CottonBall
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