[Nervous Tick]

Polls, polls, polls, polls. Polls, polls, polls.

I have absolutely no doubt that Trump is leading in the polls in NH.

Because New York values!

Poll Polls Polls Polls Polls Polls Polls Polls Polls!

[traderrob6]

Well the RCP ave had Trump up by 4 and Cruz beat Trump by 4. Wonder how far the NH polls will be off.

[sunrise_sunset]

I have no doubt Trump will do better in a primary. Caucuses favor Cruz’s well run machine. Give him credit.

[bmwcyle]

Hey, it is time to wake up. Polls are phony.

[BerniesFriend]

Quite frankly, New Hampshire primary is so overrated..I know before the 90’s, no one won the White House without winning NH..but the last three Presidents of both parties have NOT won NH..I lost respect for them when they voted for Pat Buchanan in 96..I know Dole was no prize, but come on..Pat Buchanan???? Just give Clinton the re-election..it’s a very beautiful state, but it really needs to be ignored..imho

[socal_parrot]

NH is a more liberal state than IA. Leans toward liberal candidates, Bernie and Trump.

A Cruz victory would be a YUUUGE upset.

[jmaroneps37]

If “Baggage Carrying Ted” can overcome a 26 point lead with Senior Amnesty fighting him from very close below and Trump fighting him from way above, it would be the miracle of the cycle. Plus because the Democrat side is serious there will be no Democrats meddling in the Republican primary. Any Democrat willing to go out and vote won’t throw away his vote on a dirty trick. Their race is much too close.

[montag813]

Cruz had 12,000 people on the ground, and spend 26 times what Trump did. Trump is a businessman and values his own money. Cruz spends other people’s money like it’s nothing. Look for Trump to spend more in NH and SC.

[demshateGod]

Someone really needs to tell Trump that polls are not actual votes. He really may not understand that.

[ScottinVA]

NH is a ministate in the liberal northeast... it’s definitely Trump territory. If Cruz can hold the difference to around 10%, that’s a victory in itself.

[Bruce Campbells Chin]

NH is less important for Trump (who will win it) and Cruz (who can afford to lose it), then it is for the rest of the field. If Rubio were to come in behind Trump, or behind Trump and Cruz, you'd probably see a bunch of the others drop out, and we'd have a true three-man race.

But if any of Kasich/Bush/Christie, etc. beat Rubio, then they'll probably stay in the race for longer. Jeb probably stays in any case. And that will divide the votes of the establishment candidates for longer, and make it more likely that Trump or Cruz wins.

At least, that's how I see it.

[ifinnegan]

Woo hoo!

Trump it all!

Trump was at 31% in Iowa the night before. 17 above Rubio. 7 above Cruz.

Why even bother voting?

[IFly4Him]

The poll, released Monday

This is already outdated since the Iowa results have intervened - watch the trend when the post caucus polls come out...

[SeekAndFind]

A little nostalgia from just 2 days ago before the Iowa caucus.

http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3391158/posts

Trump Leads Cruz by 9 Points in Iowa on the Eve of the Caucuses — 34-25%

Donald Trump 34%
Ted Cruz 25%
Marco Rubio 14%
Ben Carson 7%
Jeb Bush 5%
Rand Paul 3%
John Kasich 3%
Chris Christie 1%
Carly Fiorina 1%
Other 2%
Undecided 3%

[napscoordinator]

Sanders’ support is incredibly strong among young Democrats. Of respondents ages 18 to 29, 89 percent preferred Sanders.

Who did not show up in numbers expected in Iowa. Ha! Not that I care who wins but I think this is kinda funny.

[BobL]

My predication: Cruz gets a bit too full of himself and winds up coming in 5th in NH, having been defeated by Trump, then Rubio, then Christie, then Kaysick.

[DemforBush]

If I were a Hillary backer/in the DNC/something equally vile, I would be starting to sweat. Sanders fought her to a standstill in Iowa (and may actually have won), and is pummeling her in New Hampshire. Yeah, it is to be expected for Bernie to have a sizable edge, being from nearby Vermont. But he’s up by 2-1 margin over a candidate who just a couple years ago was widely considered to be unbeatable.

Think I’ll go make a fresh batch of popcorn (with extra butter). This is getting good...

[Georgia Girl 2]

So Tues will be Trumps first big win. He will get some street cred and it will build his self confidence going into SC and NV. I feel pretty good about it.

[Maelstorm]

Trump will win NH. It is true that people will be watching how close the polls are to true. If a pattern emerges of him underperforming polls it will take a toll on his campaign. The key tell will be SC. If Trump wins South Carolina he can recapture momentum. There is also a Nevada Caucus on Feb 23 which he should take. Right now delegates stand at 8 for Cruz, 7 for Trump, 7 for Rubio, 3 for Carson, 1 for Paul, 1 for Bush. 1 for Fiorina, and 1 for Kasich.

[Repeal 16-17]

Given NH’s political views, Trump likely wins (although closer than RCP says). If Sanders wins, the DNC will have to change its pants.