Posted on 01/21/2016 3:20:29 PM PST by GilGil
Real-estate mogul Donald Trump got some great news Thursday afternoon in the form of a new CNN/ORC poll showing him pulling ahead in Iowa.
That survey showed him leading his top rival, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), 37% to 26%, among likely Iowa caucus-goers.
But the CNN poll was apparently too recent for Trump to tout at a Thursday rally in Las Vegas, Nevada. Instead, Trump boasted about his results in another recent Iowa poll, from Emerson College, that found him beating Cruz 33% to 23%.
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
Undecideds breaking for Donald ... Or outlier?
WOW WOW WOW
GO TRUMP!
:-D GO TRUMP GO!!!
MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!
How could it be an outlier. There is another Iowa poll out today that shows a similar lead for Trump.
Trump is sounding more and more every day like a spoiled child.
According to pollster Nate Silver the CNN poll is based on a very loose test for likely voters. He says that their model of likely voters would imply a turnout of 320,000 whereas the 2012 turnout was 120,000. Obviously if the turnout is that much higher than normal Trump will win but if the turnout is closer to normal this poll will be way way off. Here is a link to Nate Silver’s tweet.
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/690282714709278720
Checkmate
Time will tell
Trump deserves the victory lap despite what he sounds like.
He’s sounding like a WINNER to me!!!!!!!!
Trump’s lead in this poll was +13 the last time it was conducted. Now it’s only +11. Cruz is gaining momentum in Iowa AND New Hampshire. Palin’s endorsement will backfire, as it has energized Cruz’s base even more and gotten people like Glenn Beck to campaign with him. You may hate Beck, but he has far more sway than Palin.
Enjoy your ethanol, folks.
The other poll is not included on Real Clear Politics so it must be either an internet poll or have a methodology that they do not think is reliable. On Real Clear Politics the poll listed previous to the CNN poll is the KBUR poll which has Cruz leading by 2.
I don’t think so, but you can believe as you will. I’m happy with either guy.
I just don’t know who will work with Cruz, after he’s insulted them.
They both have their warts.
Trump does not deserve a victory lap until and unless he wins something.
Respected Pollster Nate Silver says that the CNN poll is based on a methodology that presumes a turnout more than double the turnout at the 2012 Caucuses. I think everyone knows that Trump wins if turnout more than doubles but I don’t think anyone realistically expects it to be up that much. So, this poll is pretty much garbage.
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/690282714709278720
And you sound like a jilted lover, lol. A Cruz fan, I assume. Too bad you are going to lose in Iowa.
If you say so. Poll yesterday has Cruz 27% and Trump 25%.
And the bonus ... They asked about methods of transportation.
No vehicle:
Trump 28.5%.
Cruz 0%.
Also - 2012 exact many days out from caucus - Santorum was in sixth place - and won.
Looks like the bloom has come off the Cruz rose.
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