Posted on 01/14/2016 5:14:15 AM PST by Kaslin
Months ago we started hearing it from longtime Republican pundits and leaders. It was mentioned casually by most, almost as if an afterthought. But in reality they knew then and know now that a combination of a crowded field of candidates and quirky GOP rules could all but guarantee that the will of the voters could have little to do with deciding the GOP presidential nomination.
That would return Republicans back to the days of the old "Taft" style of intraparty Republican politics of the 1950s, minus the late Sen. Robert Taft's more conservative philosophy. In 1952 it took a wave of extraordinary demonstrations and rallies for the far more popular Dwight Eisenhower to overcome the rules of the '52 convention, which were all designed to keep Ike's supporters away from the convention hall, the delegate's floor and the speaker's rostrum.
It doesn't take a brain surgeon to comprehend that the old boy GOP club isn't happy with the way things are panning out as we head into the Iowa caucus and the many other caucuses and primaries that will swiftly follow it. There is not a single major early state where the establishment's first choice, former Gov. Jeb Bush, is running strong. The two most competitive "mainstream" alternatives, Marco Rubio and Chris Christie, are hardly "old guard" Republicans, but might be acceptable to the establishment in a pinch.
The unvarnished truth is that establishment Republicans are terrified of Donald Trump, who is beholden to none of them, and only slightly less troubled by Ted Cruz, who they have viewed with openly expressed disdain since he came to the U.S. Senate.
So their hope is that the crazy rules of this year's Republican selection process will result in no one candidate having the requisite number of delegates in hand to claim victory outright before the convention is held in Cleveland, and that even if a candidate has accomplished that task, they might not meet the secret extra high bar set by the 2012 convention.
The drumbeat of a brokered convention from establishment pundits has been growing louder. "Exhibit A" would be a piece penned by Karl Rove late last year in which he basically spells out the path to bargained and bartered nomination. He notes that 28 jurisdictions that hold caucuses or primaries before March 15 will award their delegates proportionally. That means that no one candidate gets to scoop up a load of delegates, regardless if they "win" one of those contests or not. South Carolina will be a winner-take-all, pre-March-15 contest, but it is the one exception.
And even after states are allowed to hold winner-take-all primaries or caucuses, not all will do so. By Rove's math, that means 60 percent of the delegates will be awarded proportionately. That, combined with the some 200-plus likely "super delegates," made up of GOP state chairs and committee members, adds to the potential of no one candidate winning the nomination on the first round of voting.
What Rove didn't mention is an even crazier booby trap set by the 2012 Republican convention leadership. Rule 40(b), adopted at the 2012 GOP convention in Tampa, basically states that no candidate's name may be placed in nomination without support from the majority of delegates in eight different states. That means 50 percent plus one. Trump or Cruz could be leading in delegates but fail to meet the quirky rule designed primarily to punish 2012 candidate Ron Paul.
Here's a message for the party establishment. If the combination of silly convention rules and crazy delegate apportionment provisions results in candidates who have obvious and strong support somehow failing to meet requirements to be nominated, chaos will erupt. And Trump, regardless of prior pledges, would surely bolt for a third-party effort that would be justified. Republicans would be doomed in November.
Yes, there are all manner of "experts" telling us that Rule 40(b) will be changed prior to the actual convention vote. But does anyone believe if Ted Cruz or Donald Trump is on the precipice of winning the nomination but lacks the requisite numbers, rules will be changed to accommodate them? Highly placed sources confirm that party leaders are sorting through ways thwart an "undesirable" outcome.
Don't be shocked if the GOP establishment doesn't try to reprise the days of Robert Taft at its convention.
Not happening. Trump will have this thing closed out in two months - thankfully.
It was a neat trick the Eisenhower Eastern Liberal Dewey Republican Establishment people pulled to steal the nomination away from the conservative Robert Taft.
They whined about ‘fairness’ until the rules committee caved and the delegates on the floor caved and the rest was history......
Brokered? Why not? Its to be expected. The GOPe has been ignoring the the will of their formerly loyal base who are fed up with backroom deals. And look where that has got them.
The author should learn the difference between a “brokered” convention and an “open” convention.
Trump could lead a revolution. He’d have the military behind him.
The GOPe will use every trick it can to get their boy Jeb nominated.
If trump is the nominee, the party will have been destroyed.
If the Republican political establishment denied Eisenhower
the nomination in 1952, we probably would be discussing the Stevenson Administration in this forum.
I am afraid you are correct.
I would not underestimate the will of the GOP leadership to try to hijack the convention, no matter what happens over the course of the primaries. After what the RNC did in 2012 and 2014 - especially the Chris McDaniel/Thad Cochran runoff abortion, I wouldn’t put anything past them. If the RNC is willing to fund a get-out-the-vote effort to persuade Democrats to vote (illegally) in a Republican primary, it will do anything to retain its now tenuous grasp on power.
Although I’ve been a registered Republican for 42 years, I’m ready for a more populist and constitutionally-based party that genuinely supports a balanced budget amendment; term limits; dissolution of the Departments of Education and Energy (to start with), the EPA and every other damned thing the federal government has no business regulating or meddling in, etc. I could go on, but you get the idea.
Ditto ditto, if the nominee is a RiNO like Yeb! or Rubio or Christie, and Trump and Cruz are just bulldozed out of the convention.
It won’t be Jeb. He is damaged goods.
Paul Ryan getting the Speakership was the trial balloon to see if he was acceptable enough to conservatives to squeak through an brokered convention. When the House conservatives didn’t oppose him, the leadership got their answer.
Paul Ryan will be the Republican nominee if Trump or Cruz fail to get enough delegates to win outright.
We’ll see...not so easy to do at the national level, when you need millions of votes, and also when the Democrat Primary may be very contested.
As to the reforms you mention, Trump will likely see to much of that.
You say that like it’s a bad thing.
If the establishinos pull these shennanigans”chaos” for the republican party is an understatement.
I don’t think so, the reason Stevenson was picked was Harry
Truman’s political demise.
The Korean War was a quagmire made worse by Truman’s firing of MacArthur. Harry Truman signed his political death warrant and took himself out of consideration for re-election in 1952.
Any GOP candidate would have beaten the liberal Stevenson because the memory of World War II was fresh and the American people believed in military victory and were fiercely anti-Communist at the time.
Good! It should be destroyed.
The GOP serves no political purpose.
It operates under no political ideology that I can see.
It seems that its only function is to get and keep a secretive, deceitful clique elected so they can line their own pockets with insider government/business deals all the while deceiving it's base of supporters that it is a "conservative" political party.
Let’s face it, the Republican Party has been committing slow-motion suicide for years. Jeb Bush summed it up nicely when he said he doesn’t need the base to win a national election. His opinion is reflective of the opinion of every person in a position of leadership in the party.
One thing you can say about Democrats/progressives; as a rule, they are loyal to their base.
There is no way the establishment will win this time.
Unless massive voter fraud or a catastrophe of biblical proportions takes place...the GOPe many only have a stool at the table.
The forces of the rebellion will be firmly in charge of this convention. No matter what Rancid Pubies or the Chamberpot/one-worlders may want.
JMHO
The only thing left is the BURIAL.
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