Posted on 01/13/2016 5:41:38 AM PST by TBBT
Bloomberg/Des Moines Register Poll: Cruz 25, Trump 22.
Details:
It’s too close to call, really, for either “side”.
As others have said, Feb 1st can’t come soon enough. Hopefully after then, some semblance of sanity will return, at least to FR.
Cruz was leading 10 points in this same poll about a month ago, put out by the traditionally biased and skewed Trump haters at the Register. Now the best they could do is give Cruz a 3 point lead, probably within the margin of error too.
Not good for everybody’s favorite Canuckistinian!
The battle of the polls? Cruz will win Iowa easily. Trump will take third. Trump will win liberal NH and Cruz will be third. SC will be close but leftists will push Trump to first. Cruz will finish second. Then the primaries where Republicans decide their nominee will be rally good for Cruz.
Cruz had a 10 point lead in the Des Moines register poll in December.
Isn’t that like a 10-15 point swing from a couple of weeks ago. Go Trump!
I can guarantee that the powers that be at the Register don’t have any love for Cruz over Trump. I’m they are both hated equally.
They hate Trump more and see Cruz the same way they did Ben Carson when they first created a push poll for him which had the effect of actually giving Benny some credibility.
As predicted, DMR closing the gap just in time to get in line with how the real results will be. Funny how DMR says the birther issue has had no effect, yet Cruz has dropped 6 points. PPP on the other hand said the birther issue was hurting Cruz and could continue to hurt him. Oh well, we’ll see how it goes. The Cruz supporters should have a good morning crowing about this. They had a rough day yesterday.
Order: Cruz - Trump
PPP (D) 1/8 - 1/10 530 LV 26 28
PPP (D) 12/10 - 12/13 522 LV 25 28
Quinnipiac 1/5 - 1/10 602 LV 29 31
Quinnipiac 12/4 - 12/13 847 LV 27 28
FOX News 1/4 - 1/7 504 LV 27 23
FOX News 12/7 - 12/10 450 LV 28 26
DM Register/Bloomberg 1/7 - 1/10 500 LV 25 22
DM Register/Bloomberg 12/7 - 12/10 400 LV 31 21
Other current polls (2) are either newcomers or have no recent history for comparison.
No real significant change (statistical noise it would appear), except in the DMR poll where Trump remains stagnant and Cruz has drop a bit.
Ultimately... Too close to call at the moment.
See what effect the next two debates have...
This poll was also taken between Jan 6 to Jan 10th I believe. When did the hullabaloo over Cruz’s status come out?
4.4 m o e enjoy it while you can.
Right about that time...I think the CNN interview was on the 6th of this month, so there still may be some residual that hasn’t appeared in the poll numbers yet.
What margin of victory would you consider to be winning easily?
Seltzer comes into line with the other polls in Iowa showing it a horse race.
Flame away as much as you want to about the liberal lean of the newspaper, but this poll is the gold standard for polls in Iowa. Seltzer knows the state very well and knows what she is doing. As I have pointed out earlier, this pollster was the only one to get the Joni Ernst race right two years ago, while everyone else had it close.
It looks like Cruz’s momentum in the state has been halted by Trump.
Conventional wisdom says that if Trump takes Iowa and NH and SC fall into place, this could be a very short cycle for the Republicans.
Something seemed fishy when I saw all of those articles stating “Cruz is ascending” back in November. Literally all using the same language but with no polls were reflecting this.
Then magically here came the polls right on time to catch up with the news stories.
But then we all noticed that Trump was pulling in huge numbers at his rallies while Cruz had modest sized venues.
Now **shocker** the polls are starting to ease back again because Trump didn’t collapse like the polls and news posts were hoping to generate.
Since the last DMR poll:
Trump: Plus 1
Cruz: Minus 6
Trump wins by 5-10% in the end!
Trump third in Iowa? Wow.
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