Posted on 01/11/2016 7:11:52 AM PST by Jane Long
The Iowa Republican Caucuses may come down to a photo finish. Ted Cruz and Donald Trump are tied with 27% of the vote each.
Apart from the 27 percenters, Marco Rubio takes 3rd place with 15%, with Ben Carson behind him at 9%.
The rest of the field holds 18% of the support, with another 3% undecided. Unlike the Democratic Caucuses in Iowa, once you commit to a candidate, your vote is finalized. There is no support threshold, meaning the top candidates cannot benefit from lower tier candidates not getting enough traction.
Slightly frustrating efforts to read into how this will affect the delegate count is the fact that the voting percentages may not reflect the allocation percentages. Doing well in Iowa is important to give campaigns momentum as they move into the other 3 February voting states, and then finally into Super Tuesday, March 1st. A poor showing in Iowa, combined with either low poll numbers in New Hampshire, or another poor showing in their 2nd in the nation primary, can lead some of the lower tier candidates to drop out. As candidates drop out, their support has to go somewhere, and even just a few extra percentage points can help capture additional delegates, especially in winner-take-all states.
As it stands, the top 5 right now will probably stick it out until at least March 1st. If this is still a 7+ person race during the second week of March, I would be surprised. Registering low single digit support in the early states, and especially on Super Tuesday, basically guarantees a candidate's donors will dry up quickly.
We will release one more Iowa poll on January 31st.
More great news for Trump ping!
I’m not terribly worried about Iowa, even if Cruz wins. What concerns me is looking at “real clear politics polls” is that on a head to head Trump losing to Hillary and Sanders. Cruz seems to do better on the head to head - good thing is still a long way to go to the General.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
Trump doesn’t even have to win Iowa, just coming close would be enough to garner wall to wall news coverage going into New Hampshire where Trump will win by a mile.
Then it’s a clean sweep from there.
Looks like Cruz is stalling there. Turnout will be the key. If Trump can bring out new voters then he could win.
Thanks for the ping.
Here’s more info on that....
Working-Class Hero: Trump Expands To 20-Point Lead Among White Blue-Collars Vs. Hillary Clinton
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3382147/posts
Really good news.
Dang dang dang- where did I see it? It had to be Conservative Treehouse or here, but which thread & which comment? Anyway, Trump was ahead, but I can’t tell you the numbers cause my mind was on something else + minimal caffeine. It wasn’t that close, but it wasn’t monstrous. I’ll try to look for it.
ah, my boy is still young, I think we’re about the same age, though I feel old!!!
he’ll still be young in 2024 :) and after working in some way in the new administration, he will be well positioned.
Perhaps neither a big win or a big loss for either one.
But who knows what triggers the decision-making process for a caucus attendee? It might be an issue dear to Iowans alone (the corn ethanol subsidies), or it may be whether one candidate or another is a better “evangelical” (whatever that is supposed to mean).
Never heard of this company, and their polling size is only 411 (I only mention this because every time a poll shows Trump behind, the Trumpkins dismiss it because of the small sample size.) On the other hand, the NBC/WSJ/Marist poll is out today still showing Ted with a 4 point lead.
Trump will absolutely crush either of the leftwing socialists/communists by speaking the truth.
Teddy, the polite “Haahhvud” scholar (and supporter of Corker’s Iran nukes) simply lacks the street dog fighter instincts of Trump.
Add in Teddy Boy’s sugar daddy, Robert Mercer and his open borders support, Teddy Boy would be a disaster...even if he becomes POTUS>
The important thing about all those head to head polls is Hillary’s number.
She never polls above the low 40’s against anyone.
Hillary is a KNOWN quantity. Everyone that is ever going to support here already does.
Trump on the other hand... is in the EXACT same position as Reagan was. The news media has made him out to be a crazy monster that will get us all killed at best.
BUT
People will eventually get to decide for themselves if Trump is REALLY the monster the media says he is (just like they did with Reagan) and they will do that after watching the debates between Trump and Clinton.
Trump doesn’t even have to win those debates, he just has to convince people he is not a crazy lunatic, at which point the numbers will move dramatically to Trump and he will win in a landslide of Reagan proportions.
Keep on whistlin’ pal, you’re almost past the graveyard.
I think Trump will win in Iowa, with Cruz a close 2nd, then Trump will win by a mile in NH, and SC, and probably NV as well, particularly if he goes there with 3 wins or even 2 wins, and a close 2nd.
The Reuters poll shows him beating Hillary by 3. The same poll showed him losing by 11 just last month.
The worst part of all this is that you might actually be right.
Good News!!!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.