Posted on 12/31/2015 1:47:01 AM PST by springwater13
Donald Trump holds a dominant position in national polls in no small part because he is extremely strong among people on the periphery of the Republican coalition.
He is strongest among Republicans who are less affluent, less educated and less likely to turn out to vote. His very best voters are self-identified Republicans who nonetheless are registered as Democrats. It's a coalition that's concentrated in the South, Appalachia and the industrial North, according to data provided to The Upshot by Civis Analytics, a Democratic data firm.
Mr. Trump's huge advantage among these groups poses a challenge for his campaign, because it may not have the turnout operation necessary to mobilize irregular voters.
Mr. Trump appears to hold his greatest strength among people like these - registered Democrats who identify as Republican leaners - with 43 percent of their support, according to the Civis data. Similarly, many of Mr. Trumpâs best states are those with a long tradition of Democrats who vote Republican in presidential elections, like West Virginia.
Mr. Trump's strength among traditionally Democratic voters could pose some problems for his campaign. Many states bar voters registered with the other party from participating in partisan primaries. Other states go further, not allowing unaffiliated voters to vote in a primary; in the G.O.P. race, for example, that would mean restricting the electorate to those registered as Republicans - one of Mr. Trumpâs weakest groups. This group of states includes many favorable to Mr. Trump, like Florida, Pennsylvania and New York.
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
Total BS, this is like believing in snipe hunting.
But that's just me.
My hunch all along has been that Trump’s support consists substantially of new and crossover voters, not regular Republicans. The question is, are there enough of them to win Republican primaries, or will they stay at home?
“That Mr. Trumpâs support is strong in similar areas does not prove that most or even many of his supporters are motivated by racial animus. But it is consistent with the possibility that at least some are. The same areas where racial animus is highest in the Google data also tend to have older and less educated people, and Mr. Trump tends to fare better among those groups â though the effect of Google data remains just as strong after controlling for these other factors.”
There we go - it’s a hit piece saying Donald’s supporters are racist. The article even goes so far as showing 2vmaps comparing the ‘racist’ parts of the country with a map of Trump’s supporters.
You forgot racist...lmao.
I deal with this crap all of the time on my alumni forums. Those Pacific NW liberals, predominantly lawyers, turn about every issue into a game of whack-a-mole.
However, there are instances of great joy: a few months back, on a flight from Atlanta I sat next to a gentleman from the Bay Area. About the first thing he said was, "you know how Californians feel about Texas." I laughed and said, I grew up in the Bay Area, but I'm proud to be a naturalized Texan."
As we were nearing DFW airport, he noticed all the manmade lakes in the Metroplex, "wow, you sure have a LOT of water here."
I replied, "I think you'll be interested to know that there is only one natural lake of any size in Texas, the rest are manmade."
After allowing him to digest that factoid, I added, "I guess Texans aren't so stupid after all."
He admitted that his attitude changed.
Me three. Two degrees, inactive CPA (25 years of tax experience, to include publicly traded companies...I let it lapse when I started with the government, I had no desire to do any more tax returns). Liberals live in their own little bubble, and don't know how to deal with anyone that disagrees with their world view. That also applies to GOPe types.
If you can blw the map up enough and hover over the black districts, you might see the Trump% with blacks. Check NY,LA, Chicago, etc.
I have posted many times that, if the old Reagan Democrat faction (whose party has moved to the extreme left) and the Republican conservative faction (whose party has moved toward the extreme left) would join together, they could determine the political leadership for decades.
Both factions sort of have similar interests. The establishments of both parties tend to ignore the factions under the guise ‘who else but our nominee will they vote for?’
The factions do have to wake up and break from their party. Otherwise, it is just more of the same movement leftward with a different name in the Oval Office.
It looks to me like Trump puts New York, New Jersey, New Hampshire, and Michigan in play and gives him an easy victory in all-important Ohio. No other GOP candidate can say that.
NY Slimes is a joke.
“Educated” is a relative term.
I enjoy cycling and tried to participate in a road cycling forum online. They are brutal. I would bet 95% are Atheist liberals. They hate religion of any kind and they hate anybody that is not a hardcore liberal. They are extremely rude. I finally had to leave. I got tired of being called names like ‘racist redneck’ just because I live in the South regardless of what I really think or believe. If you are a Southern Conservative you are scum.
There are a lot of local cyclists that are not like that so I associate with them and stay off the cycling forums.
Democratic voters could pose some problems for his campaign. b
More hot tub wet dreams for the NYT gays posing as reporters.
My inlaws from Buffalo, NY, who are conservative, God fearing, working class people who always vote dem are wholeheartedly supporting Trump. Very bad news for Hillary.
Are your in-laws registered Democrats? Will laws in NY allow them to vote Republican in the primary?
Exactly my thoughts as well. Even strongly Democrat King County here in Washington state ahows up as medium-red in that map.
The first thing that came to mind upon seeing that picture was that Barney Frank update theme which Rush Limbaugh used to play, My Boy Lollipop...
(PhD in molecular physics, and live in Minnesota. Imma go make some heads explode...) :-)
Tonight, we will host our annual New Year's party (35+years) with 4 other undereducated couples with masters degrees plus hard grounding in tech/science/engineering and other areas. Everyone, but one couple is for Trump and open about it. That couple are old time democrats, who are strong re no more illegals and everyone should be working. The guy in this couple votes republican while claiming to vote for rats to avoid arguments with his wife and adult children. Both are retired teachers/principals and have to act like democrats in most of their social circles.
Happy New Year from another under educated MBA guy for Trump!
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