Poll Watch: Public Policy Polling (D) 2016 Republican Nomination Survey (Trump 34% Cruz 18%)

Argus Journal ^ | Friday, December 18, 2015

[Red Steel]

PPP (D) 2016 GOP Nomination Poll

• Donald Trump 34% {26%} [27%] (29%) {19%}
• Ted Cruz 18% {14%} [7%] (6%) {4%} [8%] (10%) {16%} [5%] (9%)
• Marco Rubio 13% {13%} [13%] (7%) {10%} [13%] (13%) {6%} [3%] 
• Jeb Bush 7% {5%} [10%] (9%) {12%} [15%] (11%) {17%} [17%] (17%)
• Ben Carson 6% {19%} [17%] (15%) {10%} [12%] (12%) {10%} [18%] (15%)
• Chris Christie 5% {3%} [2%] (2%) {3%} [4%] (5%) {4%} [5%] (7%)
• Carly Fiorina 4% {4%} [6%] (8%) {4%} [5%] 
• Mike Huckabee 4% {4%} [4%] (5%) {8%} [11%] (12%) {6%} [10%] (9%)
• John Kasich 2% {3%} [4%] (6%) {3%}
• Rand Paul 2% {2%} [2%] (1%) {4%} [8%] (9%) {10%} [4%] (4%) 
• Lindsey Graham 1% {1%} [1%] (0%) {0%}
• Rick Santorum 1% {0%} [2%] (2%) {1%}
• Jim Gilmore 0% {0%} [0%] (1%) {0%}
• George Pataki 0% {1%} [1%] (0%) {0%}
• Undecided 2% {2%} [3%] (1%) {2%} [9%] (7%) {8%} [11%] (5%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mike Huckabee 63% {58%} [44%] (51%) {49%} [55%] (58%) {53%} [56%] (58%) / 19% {23%} [38%] (34%) {30%} [27%] (24%) {26%} [19%] (21%) {+44%}
• Ben Carson 61% {61%} [71%] (68%) {53%} [54%] (54%) {48%} [54%] (49%) / 26% {24%} [16%] (14%) {19%} [16%] (18%) {14%} [8%] (11%) {+35%}
• Ted Cruz 59% {55%} [50%] (53%) {51%} [48%] (51%) {52%} [45%] (49%) / 27% {26%} [30%] (26%) {21%} [24%] (25%) {30%} [16%] (19%) {+32%}
• Carly Fiorina 53% {51%} [57%] (53%) {38%} [38%] (28%) / 28% {30%} [27%] (23%) {22%} [22%] (21%) {+25%}
• Donald Trump 58% {51%} [50%] (56%) {48%} [38%] (37%) / 34% {37%} [38%] (30%) {39%} [43%] (43%) {+24%}
• Chris Christie 49% {46%} [43%] (28%) {25%} [26%] (31%) {24%} [28%] (35%) / 30% {32%} [38%] (54%) {56%} [49%] (52%) {57%} [45%] (43%) {+19%}
• Marco Rubio 49% {55%} [57%] (58%) {54%} [59%] (56%) {55%} [46%] / 34% {25%} [24%] (24%) {19%} [16%] (22%) {22%} [18%] {+15%}
• Rick Santorum 37% {37%} [37%] (40%) {48%} [46%] (45%) / 34% {30%} [34%] (27%) {19%} [24%] (22%) {+3%}
• Rand Paul 34% {36%} [31%] (29%) {42%} [45%] (48%) {49%} [42%] (50%) / 44% {39%} [42%] (50%) {30%} [33%] (29%) {30%} [24%] (23%) {-10%}
• John Kasich 26% {25%} [29%] (29%) {29%} [23%] (22%) / 40% {37%} [36%] (34%) {15%} [19%] (17%) {-14%}
• Jeb Bush 34% {27%} [34%] (39%) {41%} [37%] (40%) {39%} [40%] (47%) / 49% {50%} [49%] (42%) {35%} [40%] (36%) {37%} [29%] (24%) {-15%}
• Lindsey Graham 22% {24%} [18%] (19%) {21%} [16%] (19%) / 50% {37%} [45%] (40%) {33%} [39%] (31%) {-28%}

Survey of 532 Republican primary voters was conducted December 16-17, 2015.  Political ideology: 44% {40%} [39%] (40%) {39%} [35%] (34%) {36%} [38%] (38%) Somewhat conservative; 27% {33%} [30%] (35%) {33%} [40%] (37%) {34%} [38%] (35%) Very conservative; 23% {20%} [23%] (20%) {21%} [19%] (21%) {19%} [17%] (21%) Moderate; 5% {6%} [6%] (4%) {5%} [5%] (6%) {8%} [6%] (5%) Somewhat liberal; 1% {1%} [3%] (1%) {2%} [1%] (1%) {3%} [2%] (1%) Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted November 16-17, 2015 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 1-4, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 28-30, 2015 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted July 20-21, 2015 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 11-14, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 7-10, 2015 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted March 26-31, 2015 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 20-22, 2015 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 22-25, 2015 are in parentheses.

Posted by Argo Journal at 11:12 AM

[Red Steel]

Percentages in braces, bracket, parenthesis are from prior PPP polls. The explanation is on the bottom with the hyperlinks to the prior polls. We see the progress or regression of the presidential candidate over time in this article/post.

Trump up + 8% and Cruz went up + 4% in the latest PPP polling for 16th and 17th December.

[ripnbang]

Trump up + 8%

---

Yuge!

[FreeReign]

Lookey here...

Who would you prefer as the Republican candidate if you had to choose between just...

Ted Cruz and Donald Trump?

Ted Cruz 44%
Donald Trump 45%

[Albion Wilde]

Ping!

To be added to or dropped from this ping list, post your request on the thread below or freepmail to Albion Wilde.

* * *

Selected Trump articles from 12:00 AM to 2:45 PM EST, 12/18/15:
Poll Watch: Public Policy Polling (D) 2016 Republican Nomination Survey (Trump 34% Cruz 18%)
Gallup: Trump's Image Didn't Take a Hit After Muslim Ban Proposal
PPP Poll December 16-17: Trump 34%, Cruz 18%, Rubio 13%, Bush 7%
FL GOP Presidential Primary 12/17/15
Sophisticated Trump [video re. his elocution]
Trump Change: Trump Treads Water This Week
Damning Trump's leadership on the top global threat of our time
The nation owes Trump and Cruz a debt of gratitude
Jeb Bush should put this anti-Trump video on TV immediately [WaPo helping Jeb!]
Rush Limbaugh: 'Disband the Republican Party'
The Unholy Alliance between ISIS and Donald Trump (translated from an Arabic editorial)
Romney knocks Trump over Putin support
Donald Trump trashes congressional Republicans after latest budget deal
There's Something Odd About Donald Trump's Facebook Page
Trump No Longer a Sideshow - Hillary Clinton must learn how to deal with the GOP front-runner
Brzezinski: Dems have a problem if Trump wins [Mika]
Trump Hotel In Washington DC
Donald Trump has 14-point lead over Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz in N.H.: poll
Donald Trump: Congress 'Threw In The Towel' on Budget Deal
Trump continues to stump GOP establishment
Establishment Republicans Must Be Careful Not to Go Too Far
Best Bet to Beat Hillary? Mika Says It's Trump
New Post-Debate Poll: Trump Extends Lead [Morning Consult - Trump 36% Carson 12% Cruz 11%]
No, There Won't Be a Brokered National Convention
Trump Backed Amnesty For Illegal Aliens Only Last June
Poll: Rubio, Cruz Surge in N.H.; Trump Maintains Lead [Trump 26% Cruz/Rubio 12% Christie 11%] [Boston]
Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio Need To Take a Class In Trump Politics
NH Union Leader Blasts Cruz For Being 'Teddy Trump'
Huelskamp: Omnibus Bill An Early Christmas Present to Outsider Candidate Donald Trump
Anatomy of a Trump Rally: How 'The Donald's' Fans Stay on Message (VIDEO)

[RitaOK]

Unfortunately Cruz offers nothing I can think of to the broader electorate beyond Republicans.

TRUMP smokes Cruz among Republicans in this poll, and these numbers don’t even start to track his numbers with Independents and other moderate affiliations.

Cruz and Rubio are running for VP.

If it just must be a pol on the ticket. I think it’s
TRUMP-Sessions.

[FreeReign]

Unfortunately Cruz offers nothing I can think of to the broader electorate beyond Republicans.

Cruz offers more of what the electorate wants than Clinton does. And that's on the issue and about integrity.

[Red Steel]

Another ingredient that question does not answer is Trump’s very wide base is super energized to support him. I don’t see that with any other candidate. They will do everything possible to get to the polls. I can’t say that about the others, and you can bet someone who supported Yeb before he supported Cruz won’t be all that enthused to vote.

[deport]

Another ingredient that question does not answer is Trump’s very wide base is
super energized to support him. I don’t see that with any other candidate.

**************

I will be interesting to see if the is reflected in the Iowa caucuses. Trump draws
huge crowds to his rallies, thus the question becomes will that go out on caucus
night and debate/support him?

[Red Steel]

It certainty reflects it throughout the country. Cruz appears to be only competitive in Iowa.

huge crowds to his rallies, thus the question becomes will that go out on caucus night and debate/support him?

Very thin logic and a hoping against the odds that they will not come out to vote for Trump.

[FerociousRabbit]

Lookey here...
Who would you prefer as the Republican candidate if you had to choose between just...
Ted Cruz and Donald Trump?

Ted Cruz 44%
Donald Trump 45%
_________________________________________________________

Me lookey. Me likey. Too bad there will be one or two no shot candidates running through the primaries besides Trump and Cruz. Otherwise, quite the horse race.

[RitaOK]

TRUMP smokes him. Does it matter?

Maybe you can explain to me the differences between TRUMP and Cruz?

[RitaOK]

Without a doubt you’re correct.

I think we all know a revolution when we see one.

TRUMP is Revolution.

[deport]

45 days and we’ll know for sure. Fast approaching.

[Red Steel]

That it is. Tic toc.

[St_Thomas_Aquinas]

What will the race be like as candidates drop out?

The chart below provides an answer. Note the trend lines for Cruz and Trump (reading right to left).

1st & 2nd Choice Votes Combined

[Jewbacca]

“TRUMP smokes Cruz among Republicans in this poll”

Not exactly. From the poll:

Who would you prefer as the Republican candidate if you had to choose between just...

Ted Cruz and Donald Trump?

Ted Cruz 44%
Donald Trump 45%

[BigEdLB]

NO GENDER GAP! 34% MEN, 34% WOMEN

[Red Steel]

It’s some very thin gruel for the anti-Trumper. Trump has the dominating position that he has held for almost a half year. We all know the likely outcome here even when some don’t want to admit it.

[almcbean]

And Cruz bests him in the somewhat and very conservative categories. The race will become more interesting when the also rans drop out

[entropy12]

Trump smokes all other republican candidates in crossover votes from democrats. The evidence is all around me.

I have just too many relatives and friends, who have voted democrat for decades, are now thinking Trump! Astonishing! My sister and her 2 adult daughters have voted for democrats for 25 years. My sister’s husband flips between the 2 parties. All 4 will vote for Trump this time. Several of my golf buddies are democrats (I live in WA state). Almost half are also thinking Trump. They all love deportation of illegals.

I smell a Reagan size landslide forming. Barring some unforeseen event hurting Trump, I am convinced Trump factor grows bigger towards November 2016 election.