Posted on 12/11/2015 10:55:55 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
Since the day he announced his candidacy, Texas Senator Ted Cruz has been making the case that he's the conservative candidate who can win the Republican nomination. It doesn't matter if he is speaking to a group of homeschool kids and their parents, Cruz closes by telling his audience about how much money his campaign has raised and that he is positioned to win.
Now as we enter the final phase of the 2016 caucus campaign, Cruz has a handful of prominent Iowa endorsements to go along with all of his campaign cash. The big three statewide Republican elected officials, Governor Terry Branstad and Senators Grassley and Ernst, are not expected to endorse anybody. This means the endorsements of Congressman Steve King, Iowa’s conservative firebrand, and social conservative leader Bob Vander Plaats, are all the more important.
No presidential candidate has ever enjoyed the endorsement of both King and Vander Plaats. And while they are both social conservatives, they represent two different sides of the conservative voting bloc in Iowa. King is known for his outspokenness on immigration and the fiscal mess in Washington. Vander Plaats is known for leading the fight against the Iowa Supreme Court Justices who ushered gay marriage into Iowa in 2009.
The two big endorsements of King and Vander Plaats and the scads of other endorsements Cruz has picked up along they way do more than just make him the clear conservative frontrunner in Iowa, they also build huge expectations for Cruz in Iowa. Earlier this year, Cruz's campaign hinted at a March 1 strategy that focused more on Super Tuesday than any of the early states. Now that Cruz is fully invested in Iowa, it will be key for him to win Iowa in order to win the nomination.
Like it or not, Cruz must now meet or exceed expectations in Iowa. Win, and he will be in a great position to win the Republican nomination. Lose, and it's going to be a much more difficult road. With his resources and big name endorsements, his campaign needs to focus on winning, not managing expectations.
Not really a unanimous decision.
Cruz did not receive the endorsement of The FAMiLY Leader. Instead, he landed the personal endorsements of Vander Plaats, the group's Vice President Chuck Hurley, the chairman of The FAMiLY Leader Board of Directors Robert Cramer, and the pastor to the board.
Vander Plaats stated at the press conference that the group's board unanimously voted to encourage the individuals to endorse. He also said that The FAMiLY Leader board also voted unanimously not to endorse a candidate, and instead would remain the standard bearer for Christian principles.
Vander Plaats was asked by an Associated Press reporter about a 9-1 board vote back on November 30th, where Cruz came up one vote short of getting the organization's endorsement. Vander Plaats explained that the vote was a preliminary vote to gauge where board members were at. In a Des Moines Register article, Vander Plaats acknowledged that one board member did abstain because of a personal friendship with another candidate.
TheIowaRepublican.com chatted with that board member last week, and he indicated that his vote not to endorse Cruz wasn't just because of his personal relationship with Rick Santorum. So, while Vander Plaats went out of his way to make everything look unanimous, not everyone on the board was in lock-step with going with Cruz.
Viability was a key factor.
Vander Plaats mentioned in his endorsement of Cruz that financial resources and the ability to win the nomination were a key factor in getting behind Cruz. Vander Plaats spoke about how the previous two winners won Iowa but struggled because of a lack of resources. Cruz has raised over $26 million for his campaign and has a well-financed group of Super PACs that will also help him navigate the Republican nomination process.
Again, the focus on viability and money is odd coming from Vander Plaats, a three-time gubernatorial candidate who never had the most money in his coffers and thus had to rely on grassroots support. That makes Vander Plaats' endorsement of Cruz sting even more for Santorum and especially Huckabee who had repeatedly supported Vander Plaats in all of his political endeavors over the past eight years.
I think Cruz may have some Republican brass support in Iowa, and he has been blaring that horn, but I’m not certain that he’s got the votes of the people, just yet.
The Cruz favored polls are relying on standard issue polling, I read. Seems the best one, I believe it was, was based on previous caucus goers, where he did very well.
Trump, on the other hand, smoked him in the poll that was based upon new voters, who were ramped up for Trump, and it also included electronic polling.
Based on different polling methods, from standard issue, it may be too soon for Cruz to force the narrative that he is assured of winning Iowa.
This article wasn't written by Ted Cruz. And frankly, the person who wrote this isn't touting Cruz.
I know, but I was thinking out loud and just hit “post”.
: )
Polls are interesting.
Here's a peek at one I'm setting up to post.
I heard yesterday that TRUMP was at 35 in NH. And, Rubio was in third at less than half of TRUMP. I’ll take a look.
Also, hearing that it’s over for TRUMP. It’s a gritch to be TRUMP. Especially at that stinking 42% on that ridiculous ONAN poll. I mean, who needs it?
:)
Cruz isn’t forcing a narrative. He’s campaigning to win in Iowa. Most of the articles seem to say he’s building a strong ground game there. So he certainly isn’t taking it for granted.
But, how often does one who wins the Iowa ever go on to win the presidency?
Maybe it’s a good thing NOT to win there>
: )
Losing is better?
"Six Republican winners in Iowa, out of nine contests there, have gone on to win the GOP nomination. (Three were incumbents who ran unopposed.)"
So of non-incumbents, 3 of 6, or 50%.
My people in Iowa say different. Not only does he have the best ground game, but he’s bringing in 500 out-of-state volunteers to knock on doors.
Yes, we are hearing about that, but my people think something else may be going on.. There are rumors that the new voters are with TRUMP, and that the Iowa polls favoring Cruz are limited to “telephone” polls.
Trump is supposedly using both landline and electronic media, reportedly capturing more new voters, who are ramped up for Trump. Do you suppose that’s true?
Cruz has been helped in Iowa with ground gaming that’s for sure. I’m not sure Trump has been napping on Iowa, though. It’s just that with nothing but TRUMP doing TRUMP, he is smoking it, nationally. It is getting exciting, that’s for sure.
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