Posted on 12/10/2015 5:28:00 AM PST by maggief
Three candidates for the Republican nomination have broken away from the rest of the pack, and two of them — businessman Donald Trump and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz — give the GOP establishment nightmares.
That leaves the third member of the trio, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, potentially well placed to pick up the support of center-right Republican voters who are looking for someone to stop Trump and Cruz at almost any cost.
But Rubio is behind both of his top-tier rivals in national polling averages and is even further back in Iowa, home to the first-in-the-nation caucuses, where he holds fourth place, albeit behind the fast-fading Ben Carson. An even deeper problem for the Florida senator is that other candidates who are competing for the same voters are unlikely to drop out before the New Hampshire primary. That means votes that might otherwise go to Rubio could instead be won by contenders such as former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Ohio Gov. John Kasich.
Add all these factors together and it becomes clear why establishment Republicans are so concerned, especially in the wake of Trump’s inflammatory call to ban Muslims from entering the United States. Cruz, meanwhile, has been enjoying a rapid rise in the polls.
“Listen, I think both Cruz and Trump would have a similar impact on the party, neither of which would be very good. I am actually more concerned about Cruz than I am about Trump,†said GOP strategist John Feehery, a former senior leadership aide who is a columnist for The Hill.
Feehery added, “I think Cruz has made a reputation of relentless mendacity ... I think he’s a demagogue and I think he’ll destroy the party. I think Trump is much more of a blowhard. But there’s not really a dime’s worth of difference between Trump and Cruz.â€
As of Wednesday afternoon, Trump sat atop the RealClearPolitics national polling average, with the backing of 29.3 percent of GOP voters, with Cruz in second, at 15.5 percent. Rubio was just behind, with 14.8 percent. In Iowa, where the first caucuses will be held on Feb. 1, Cruz runs much closer, with 22.3 percent average support to Trump’s 25.7 percent. Rubio is farther behind in the Hawkeye State than nationally, drawing 13.7 percent backing.
Trump’s comments calling for a “shutdown†of Muslims entering the U.S. have been condemned by many Republicans, as well as Democrats and unaligned observers. Included among his critics are Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), who both lambasted him on Tuesday. The condemnation of a party’s presidential front-runner by that same party’s most senior members of Congress is without precedent, at least in modern times.
The opprobrium from on high will not necessarily doom Trump. A Bloomberg Politics poll released Wednesday indicated that 64 percent of likely Republican primary voters supported the idea of temporarily banning Muslims from coming to America.
But Washington Republicans shake their heads at the damage they believe the real estate tycoon is inflicting on the party’s image. They are also enraged about his suggestion that he could mount a third-party run if he is not treated in a way that he deems fair during the GOP primary process.
“Donald Trump says he might make a third-party run if he is mistreated by the party, but Donald Trump has severely mistreated the Republican Party with his outlandish and over-the-top statements against Hispanics, women and now against religion in terms of Muslims,†said Ron Bonjean, a GOP consultant and former aide to House and Senate Republican leaders.
Bonjean expressed less outrage about Cruz personally, but just as much skepticism about his chances of prevailing in a general election.
Alluding to reports that Cruz and his advisers believe he can win the White House by boosting enthusiasm and turnout solely among the conservative base, Bonjean said, “If Cruz would follow through on his promise not to court the middle, we would lose the general election.â€
The Cruz camp has also made the case it can win over “Reagan Democrats†in the general election, though some Republicans are skeptical.
All of the GOP establishment angst could be good news for Rubio. The fact that he has now achieved a degree of separation from other establishment-friendly choices such as Bush, Kasich and Christie could create a snowball effect where more voters are drawn to his banner.
Asked if the shift toward Rubio could pick up speed, South Carolina GOP strategist Dave Woodard said, “I think it could — and the reason is, he says all the right things.â€
Woodard, who is also a professor of political science at Clemson University, outlined the traits that many people believe would make Rubio a strong candidate in a general election, including his youth, his oratorical ability and his heritage as the son of Cuban immigrants.
“People who are concerned about losing again — and that’s what it boils down to — might say, ‘I hadn’t really considered Rubio but he looks like the best establishment choice. I might go with him,’ †Woodard said.
Others who favor establishment candidates caution that Rubio does not have that segment of the party anywhere close to locked down, however.
Feehery said he believes that Rubio is the candidate Democrats fear the most, but added that he isn’t sure the center-right vote would necessarily coalesce around him. He noted that Christie has been gaining ground in New Hampshire, and added, “I wouldn’t count Bush out.â€
He noted that previous candidates who have appealed to the establishment wing in both major parties have come through dire straits to win the nomination in the end. He cited Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) in 2008 and then-Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) in 2004 as examples.
Centrist Republicans believe the party needs to act soon in order to defeat Trump and Cruz.
“There needs to be a consolidation of candidates that attract white-collar and establishment voters, and that will compete for the nomination,†said Bonjean. “At this point, you are seeing some movement in the establishment toward Rubio — a little bit. It feels like a plate-shifting is happening.â€
Establish ment might not be happy, but the Dems would be ecstatic if Cruz won the nomination. They know he will not get the turnout nor crossover votes Trump would.
Hey, but Jeb is at 3%. Like they say in Dumb and Dumber, ‘One in a million? So I have a chance!’
Is the “Cruz is dangerous to the establishment” the latest meme the GOP is pushing to try and stop the Trump Train?
Ted “Goldman Sachs” Cruz is about as outside the mainstream as Jeb. The GOP Elites tried it with Carly and Ben.
Centrist republicans? Dont they mean demorats?
And, the GOPe lobbyists, strategists and consultants are worried about their job security.
Nightmare for the establishment - But good for America
Which centrist Republicans? Apparently not the ones that will be voting.
You are absolutely right about Democratic crossovers voting for Trump. I have two friends, a husband and wife, who are the most liberal yellow-dog Democrats from the upper West Side you could possibly imagine. They give me endless lectures about global warming and how George Bush is responsible for every problem the country now faces. However, in private, both have told me that they are likely going to vote for Trump, and each has begged me not to tell the other.
Yawn.
There’s no reason for John Ellis Bush, Kasich and Christie supporters to go to Rubio, as they are all focusing on New Hampshire.The gap between them is small enough two months out that they won’t have to break. IF one of them does break through in Iowa for a surprising fourth place finish (Christie, for instance). In 1980, Howard Baker and John B. Anderson were getting double digits even when it was clear that it was a two man race. Anderson eventually turned into an anti-Reagan protest vote. May the GOP-E be similarly reduced to such protest votes.
this is all so much meaningless drivel written to get paid for words on the page
GOP lobbyists, strategists and consultants —
Most of them are indoctrinated by their poison-ivy league educations. They claim to be conservatives, but more of them are likely to be closet anti-conservatives, prejudiced against common sense.
TRUMP/CRUZ
I’ve been giving this some thought.
I’d bet that Trump wins the popular vote in the primaries, but the GOPe won’t certify him and will award the nomination to Marco Rubio.
Trump will tear up his “pledge” not to run, and we’ll have a third-party run by Trump. The election will see Hillary win by a thin margin with Trump in second and Rubio a distant third. It will mark the beginning of the end for the GOP.
Flloooreeeoooo....................
..........brings ‘em in from Mehhiicccooooooo.
Flloooreeeoooo....................
..........brings ‘em in from Mehhiicccooooooo.
“But Washington Republicans shake their heads at the damage they believe the real estate tycoon is inflicting on the partys image.”
Seriously, you can’t make this stuff up.
I won’t be so sure.
Here’s background on this slime bucket...
September 22, 2014
Meet John Feehery, Perhaps the Worst GOP Establishment Consultant Ever
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