Here Comes Cruz in Iowa [Trump 30%, Cruz 21%]

National Review -- The Corner ^ | November 23, 2015 | Rich Lowry

[brothers4thID]

Despite the lovely rabble rousing, that link does nothing to prove your point. What rider? Give textual examples of legislative language.

[brothers4thID]

1. Ted Cruz is a Reagan Republican: he believes in free trade as a powerful weapon to spread democracy and increase American influence— but he wants Congress to have a role in trade agreements. TPA has been used by every President for the past 50 years to expedite the negotiation of trade deals. Our allies, and enemies, know that the US Congress is a fickle beast that just loves to tack on poison pill amendments in order to kill a bill/treaty. TPA sets a time period and the mandate of an up or down vote— no amendments, no denial of cloture, no foot dragging. If Congress members do not like the details of the bill, they have to vote no and send it back to the drawing board. Furthermore, unlike the Constitutionally mandated treaty process, TPA allows for the House of Representatives to get a vote on a trade bill. (The Constitution says that the Senate must ratify a treaty— the House gets no vote.) Now I think we would all agree that Congressmen who have to be re-elected every 2 years are far less likely to sign onto a damaging treaty than Senators, who are only elected every 6 years— so letting the House have a vote is a good idea.

2. The TPA bill that originally hit the Senate floor was all but identical to the TPA used by the aforementioned Presidents of the past half-century. Senator Sessions was (rightly) concerned that immigration language would be added to the bill in the House, but no such language existed in the first Senate version. Conservatives were further worried that TPA would be used to re-authorize the Export-Import bank. McConnell gave assurances that the Export Import bank not only would not be added to the TPA, but that it was dead for the rest of the legislative year.

3. To end debate on any bill, that does not fall under specific budget rules, in the Senate you need unanimous consent OR 60 yes votes during what is called a cloture vote. When the cloture vote for TPA—the Senate version— was held there were 62 yes votes. Cruz did not cast the 60th, 61st, or 62nd vote. In fact, he had already voted yes to end the debate because he had been assured by House and Senate leaders that immigration codicils would not be added and that Ex/Im was dead. Then McConnell, realizing he would not get cloture (he only had 54 votes) made a deal with 8 Senators to put Ex/Im on another bill. You can read about those shenanigans here: http://blogs.rollcall.com/wgdb/trade-promotion-authority-senate-roll-call-vote/

4. After cloture was obtained the deal McConnell made became public and Cruz was pissed as hell. To make matters worse, the House TPA bill included the very immigration language Sessions warned about. So, both Boehner and McConnell lied to conservatives (not just Cruz) in order to garner support. Because the House and Senate bills were different, they had to be combined in what is called a “Conference Committee”. That bill then had to be passed by both the House and Senate.

5. It was during the vote for cloture on the newly edited joint bill, (TPA-2 if you will) that Cruz and several others rebelled and voted no. Cruz has explained that the version of TPA that was passed was not the version supported by Reagan conservatives and he could not, in good conscience, vote for it.

6. The Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) deal has been sent to Congress to vote on under the rules outlined in TPA. This means that TPP cannot be amended or filibustered. All members of Congress will have a chance to vote and must either vote yes or no.

Please let me know if you still have questions about this.

[Parley Baer]

Let see if I have this right. Trump is at 30% the highest he has been in Iowa and was recently polling behind Carson. Cruz has jumped ahead of Carson 21 to 19%. So Trump is now 9 points ahead with the biggest lead he has ever had in Iowa and somehow it is Cruz for the win. Makes absolutely no sense to me. Someone is doing some wishful thinking.

[TheErnFormerlyKnownAsBig]

Excellent explanation of the series of events and worth pinging for later.

[FourPeas]

"The big question for us 'is the republic actually dead?' and is Obama just the first caesar?"
the artist said. "The welfare state and the Kardashians are the 21st century version of bread
and circuses... Is this a democratic republic, or just a Washington D.C. TV show that is
pretending to be one, while the Federal government laughs at the plebes... If Cruz is the
candidate, we have a chance at restoring the republic."

[brothers4thID]

I keep forgetting to edit the html to take out all of this stupid punctuation mistranslations. Sorry :(

[Unmarked Package]

Thank you very much! You've done a terrific job of providing the facts and important timeline for the recent TPA/TPP events in the Senate and House. Ping to your post for my future reference.

[yadent]

It’s all in the article with references. If you choose not to believe that’s your prerogative. Another legal opinion source-—http://grassrootstexas.mojo4m.com/userdata/grassrootstexas/TPA_-_What_Americans_Should_Know.pdf

[brothers4thID]

No, it is not. There is no mention, in either link, of the specific “rider” (incorrect use of the term btw) that Cruz supposedly authored.

[Bobalu]

Thank you so very, very much!

It was a lot of work to compose this detailed response and it is appreciated.

This should be re-posted whenever this comes up again.
With your permission I will do that when the need arises :-)

I will now re-read this a few times and endeavor to understand it fully.

Good work my FRiend.

[brothers4thID]

Also, , that link refers to the text of the original (old) Senate bill. Therefore the conclusions are invalid regarding the current form of TPA.

[brothers4thID]

Happy to help. I am currently dealing with a critically sick child. When I have a bit more free time, I will provide the specific textual changes referenced in my earlier post.

FRegards.

[Bobalu]

Prayers up for the sick little one my FRiend :-)

Thanks again for the great post regarding Cruz.

[yadent]

So this is the Senate version that Cruz supported wholeheartedly before he was, you know, lied to. As for the referenced ‘Cruz rider’, the passage of any trade legislation via a now simple majority, apparently Cruz’s staff would neither confirm nor deny that portion of the bill was his ‘contribution’ and I’m relying on the sources of The Conservative TreeHouse for that as I’ve dealt with them since the Zimmerman/Martin case and at this point trust them. Irregardless, all of these issues for ALL candidates should be thoroughly vetted.....no more surprises.

[spacejunkie2001]

Yes, I agree. It will mainly be psychological but it will definitely change the trajectory. Trump is riding the wave of ‘winning’ and when he loses the first national vote, things will change.

[deport]

So Trump is now 9 points ahead with the biggest lead he has ever had in Iowa and somehow
it is Cruz for the win. Makes absolutely no sense to me. Someone is doing some wishful thinking.

****************

Just a couple of points. I believe but don’t know for sure that the polls are more likely
of the general population rather than caucus goers. The key to winning Iowa is getting people
to attend whichever of the 1862 caucuses that is in their location. It maybe in someone’s kitchen,
public bldg, etc. Then you spend a couple hours talking about and listening to others talk
about their candidate. Then you vote your preference and it’s done.

This is only the first step in the selection process. The next event is a county caucus which
the process start over only with fewer attendees. Then from there it goes to a district caucus
and starts over again and final it goes to the state convention where the final decision is made.
That convention is sometime in the summer when most likely the candidate has already been selected.
A long road to get no where, imo.

A hell of a process with a small percentage of citizens participating but it’s their process.

[Baynative]

I am in full agreement with you on Trump’s greatest gift. I’d also like to see Ted Cruz replace John Robert’s as Chief Justice sometime. I know that isn’t possible because of the order and rules of succession. But, his legal brain is far superior to any on the court today.

[Baynative]

Robert’s...

Robert's what, I wonder.

[GilGil]

Plus I am no crazy about Cruz’ connection to Goldman Sachs via his wife. Goldman Sachs is an evil company that spread misery and depravity on everything it touches.

This makes me very uneasy.

[yadent]

Yup. TPA, even the version that Cruz supported before the ‘revised’ one that he didn’t, was a dream come true for Wall Street. A God-send for Goldman Sachs. Just think, a bill to make it EASIER to pass legislation/treaties(with all the potential international rules & regulations included). A lobbyist’s wet dream. America’s middle class worst nightmare.......